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Aphelion369

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Everything posted by Aphelion369

  1. What do mean “how can you be surprised”? I actually said “I’m NOT surprised”....i.e that people are reacting this way, given the extreme heatwaves of the last few years, so what I’m not sure who, or what exactly you’re trying to contradict with these tables from this summer. Oh, if you think that’s a good example of a rubbish summer, try having a look at the charts for June 1972, the Julys of 1974, 1977, 1980, 1988 and even 1993 amongst many others, for some perspective.
  2. I wasn’t referring to comments on this thread specifically, where people tend to be more educated about climate anyway, but more broadly to expectations from the general public as can be seen from the reactions in both the traditional and social media. As I said, after the last few summers with multiple instances of temps over 35C plus well above average sunshine amounts in the southeast in particular, it isn’t surprising that this has raised expectations for what British summers “ought to be” when a bit of historical context/ long term averages, tells us otherwise.
  3. Perceptions have obviously been skewed and distorted by the last few summers, particularly here in London and the Southeast, to the point that some people have almost come to expect +35C temperatures every year. The average annual max at Heathrow, for example, for the last five summers is around 35.5C! So when these temps don’t materialise for just one summer, bitter disappointment naturally ensues and all sense of proportion goes out of the window. Admittedly, rainfall amounts have indeed been a bit high and sunshine on the low side, which no doubt adds to the general impression of gloominess.
  4. I’m not sure I find this convincing, tbh: Surely if UHI is the key factor, they should have compared Heathrow with St James’s Park, right at the heart of London, and not another suburban station like Kew Gardens. Also, my understanding is that the main concern about Heathrow is not so much the average monthly means but rather maximum temperatures in the summer, particularly during heatwaves such as in the recent summers, where Heathrow appears to “overperform” compared to other nearby stations. But the article evades this but instead focuses on average monthly means to prove an (all too easy) point that Heathrow and Kew indeed have very similar means year round. Even during this summer (2021), despite the absence of extreme heat so far, Heathrow has regularly and consistently recorded higher maxes than either SJP and Northolt, and if the rainfall stats are to be believed, has also mysteriously largely escaped the downpours which have plagued much of the southeast.
  5. My first spot on guess...yey! Not bad for a newbie - I didn't know about the post no. ranking, so must earlier next time!
  6. I agree, it is entirely possible 40C or more has already been reached during the historical period, before reliable thermometers had been invented. It also depends on how far you're prepared to back into the past. Prior to the last ice age, what is now "Britain" actually had a tropical climate during several geological periods.
  7. A VEI of 6 with a reduction of 1.2C over at least 5 years is certainly not "overhyped." AGW temperature projections or "scenarios" are over many decades, not 5 years. And if there is/was hype about Krakatoa, it's not entirely underserved. And I would say that an eruptive column of 80,000 ft and 4 cubic miles of ejected matter is anything but "modest". We understand that you've got something against Krakatoa, but no one's saying that here, and I never mentioned March 1883 in my post. Says who? Where's your evidence for this? What are these "analogues"? So volcanic eruptions are only "impressive" if they affect North American winters, otherwise they're just "overhyped"?
  8. Interesting run of chilly springs in the 1880s and early 1890s...a post-Krakatoa effect, maybe? Just imagine if we had a volcanic eruption on that scale, or even on Pinatubo's scale, which caused temporarly cooling in the early to mid 1990s (which was otherwise a very warm decade).
  9. Hi, I'm fairly new to this forum. I wanted to find out where you get these GFS data from? Which website? Thanks.
  10. I agree. I think few people expected "winter" to drag on to the beginning of April!
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