West is Best

This may fall on deaf ears but I continue to urge caution. The easterly scenario is by no means nailed on. With these ensembles I continue to think it's 60:40 high pressure will settle (topple) back over the UK after the northerly:

A deep freeze 6z run with the first signs of proper cold pooling in Europe: something which has been remarkably lacking in recent years (climate change): I still think the evolution to this however looks precarious and I urge caution for everyone's sanity.

A very rash remark indeed for the reasons I have just posted. I would say it's 60:40 we will indeed have a toppling high.

Another word of warning about this easterly. The risks inherent in the evolution from this: to this: ... are considerable. It doesn't mean it won't happen but 'nailed on' it most certainly isn't. We await with bated.

Squally heavy rain on the Cornish clifftops. Not surprised that it's rain although some of the heaviest snowfalls I've seen in recent times have been in Devon. All too marginal this time around for most people at low levels in the south but I wish great joy to those who get lucky.

There might come an easterly out of this but words about 'solid agreement for a perfect alignment' make me nervous. The progression of the high pressure cell towards Iceland is a precarious synoptic setup at the best of times. A small shift and we find ourselves under a high pressure not an easterly and many, many, many times easterlies have been promised even at short notice only to come to nothing (John Kettley's infamous beast from the east being the classic example). The models have generally trended more cold over the past 24 hours but only by a notch. My concern is that there remains a lack of 1. robust upstream blocking and 2. significant cold pooling to our east, although this has improved slightly. It should also be noted that later on in the run 0z GFS has a south-easterly veering southerly: in fact what Steve Murr used to call the backdoor exit from a cold spell. This is because it has the hp evaporating. That also needs to be watched as it's a relatively new development with the GFS which has continued to be all over the place past T168 - another reason to be cautious. In addition we should note that in FI models are continuing to show Atlantic low pressure cells and without robust upstream blocking this should be a cause for concern. It can, of course, be the prelude to proper snow: when a low pressure collides with cold pooling and the undercut leads to real snow. We are a long way from that scenario at the moment. The 0z ECM indeed has the hp cell eventually moving so far north that the cold uppers over the UK lift from the south: we lose the cold source. These setups are precarious. I can only really remember one perfect alignment for an easterly and that was February 1986 - one of the three coldest months of the C20th I believe but one hardly anyone remembers as it was simply cold. No snow. Just bone chilling boring dry cold. At the moment I see evidence to stick with the Met Office that we're in for a week of cold weather, with rain, sleet and snow but also a lot of dry weather. Temps below average but nothing seismic or significant. Pretty much in line with the kind of below average conditions we experienced in July and October. Beyond T144 at the moment is unclear and uncertain. Caution should be the watchword not over-enthusiasm. At least for now.

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell. It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

Yes I get that too. That was a wild night.

I'm on a Cornish clifftop. The first house for 3400 miles and right now I'd rather we don't hit 90 mph if it's all the same It's so wild out there. Really quite scary.

It's so wild out there. Crazy. 81mph recorded at Aberdaron so already exceeding the Met Office forecast of 70-80 mph.

No you didn't waffle. I was just worried that you are okay.

A little video from earlier this afternoon on the Cornish clifftops as Bella announced her arrival E0AF7359-B524-4F22-8490-7D99CB37C171.mov

Not sure the backstory but I hope you are okay?

Incidentally, this isn't out of the blue. Different times of year but we had a cold northerly July and again in October.

As a matter of interest, can this ever happen? I'm pretty sure we debated this once and the hp cell over Greenland is always distinct from the one in mid-Atlantic. They never truly join? Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure that's been stated on here even by Murr.