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West is Best

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West is Best last won the day on December 19 2016

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  • Gender
  • Location
    The West Country
  • Interests
    A little bit of writing, occasionally helping to solve a few crimes and a love of snow.
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and storms

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  1. Gulp. You seem very sure of that? I'm sadly not yet convinced by the excitement on here. A chart like this is, imho, a recipe for trouble in future runs: The problem is that we don't have a Greenland High and we don't really have a mid-Atlantic ridge. As our weather derives from the west I am always very wary when we end up relying on cold to come from any variant of easterly blocking. But, hey ho, I'm an amateur dabbler and what do I know. I hope you're right!
  2. The ECM evolution is now basically a fast exit from the amplified shortwave into an Atlantic pattern, thus falling into line with the GFS. There's no blocking where we need it. As mentioned above by KTtom, the relevant high pressures are too far away and in the wrong position to halt the UK's default south-westerly flow. To borrow from W.B. Yeats, 'the centre cannot hold.'
  3. I usually come out of hibernation around now and it has been tempting once or twice with recent model runs. However, I'm not yet salivating. My hunch is that the Atlantic hasn't given up its blow just yet and that we are in for two or three phantom easterlies until Christmas. The GFS is backing away from anything particularly exciting, although we may have something meridional around c. 3rd December. The ECM is the main source of hope and it makes me wary that there isn't much backing from the other big two. I may be wrong!
  4. My concern is that the GFS has flip-flopped from a mega Greenland High (1060mb) to low pressure in the latest 0z run. Steve Murr has drilled into us old-timers the importance of the Greenland High for established upstream blocking. I've been watching the GFS over the summer and early autumn and I've been despairing at its volatility. I posted about this a few weeks back, suggesting it would be better to put a blindfold on and pin a tail on the donkey (that's a nod to an old old poster on here by the name of Atmos Ferric who then morphed into Stratos Ferric before vanishing without trace).
  5. Afternoon Fred. I'm coming out of my summer hibernation 😃 I hope everyone is well and has avoided this wretched virus? Is TEITS around? He's going to love that 6z run.
  6. Well I think we've just started the month with the warmest ever recorded November night. The highest minimum is always a bit of a strange one to measure but by my reckoning the record has just been smashed. We await the Met Office to confirm.
  7. I'm quite wary of cold Novembers as they don't always, or even often, mutate into cold winters. Much the same can happen with summer. Remember this year we had that incredible dry and sunny run from April through May? Then we ended up with a below average July. On the other hand, I do remember winter 1985/6 when November was bitterly cold under blocking and an easterly and a CET of 4.1C. Although December was mild, we then hit a real bone chilling February with a resumption of the blocking. At -1.1C February 1986 remains one of the coldest months ever recorded in this country. In the last
  8. Ah. There's the answer. Wow Tamara. How exciting. I'd love to live outside England right now. I put it like that because if Scotland votes for independence and rejoins the EU that would tempt me.
  9. Good morning Tamara and one and all. I hope you've been staying safe through this godawful virus. And, Tamara, re. your move: wow. SW Europe is a large area so are you able to be a little more specific? How wonderful. I'm making a brief foray onto the forum ahead of winter when I'm mostly on here. I wanted to state ahead of time that I think the GFS has gone down the plughole with its medium and longterm charts. I have long championed the GFS as the Gold Standard. Well, not any more. I've been monitoring the GFS for weeks and I don't know what has happened to it but it is utter junk. Comp
  10. Every GFS run for the last 4 has nudged Storm Alex north. It looks as if this and the associated lows over the next three days could bring disruption from rain across the whole of southern Britain and the Midlands and gales in the south and south-west. Pretty potent.
  11. The Atlantic onslaught continues. It's now virtually certain that I shall witness my first ever snowless winter. Not even a flake from the sky. The briefest flirtation from ECM is soon snuffed out. With the jet this powerful there's nothing that's going to stand in the westerly way. A remarkable February but, for most of us, for all the wrong reasons.
  12. The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.
  13. Honestly the above really is extreme straw-clutching. There's almost nothing on the latest 6z GFS to suggest anything other than continued mobility across the UK. The T144 extension of the Azores high into a nascent high pressure forming over the Bay of Biscay is itself fairly fraught. But even if it materialises it does nothing to alter the south-westerly conveyor belt across the UK. We would need it extending 300 miles further north and I can see no sign of that? I've been studying the weather for 45 years and I don't think I have ever seen anything like this. The idea that we are going
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