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West is Best

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West is Best last won the day on December 19 2016

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    A little bit of writing, occasionally helping to solve a few crimes and a love of snow.
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    Snow and storms

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  1. Yep. It's pretty relentless right now. The wettest autumn on record (hardly typical Mr Geordiesnow) is being followed by the most Atlantic-dominated winter that I can ever recall. The jet is ridiculously powerful. So far, that is. Perhaps it will abate. Meanwhile, we continue to batten down the hatches.
  2. This is relentless. Meanwhile, every Australian state hits 40C. It's pretty difficult to ignore that AGW is driving our own model outputs. The power of the jet this whole autumn / early winter is something to behold. Every time you think it's about to relent, it roars back. Sigh.
  3. Not even the ensembles within themselves agree. Massive scatter and some significant colder members, with the operational right at the maximum extreme. So let's ditch the despair please folks
  4. It's the form horse and we'd be foolish to bet against it. Flattening out across the models with only the vaguest glimmer at the end of the ECM. Sadly
  5. At some point one of these GFS operational runs is possibly going to take a very different tack. The spread is considerable, with some significantly colder members. The transition point appears to coincide with the synoptic setup around 27/12:
  6. Not a huge amount of support for the GFS 0z FI transition. On the other hand, neither is it an outlier: Models have been indicating the high pressure transition post-Christmas on and off for a few days. 0z ECM at T240 clearly shows the advent of the high retrogressing towards Scandinavia. The result would be something similar to the GFS FI. So, whilst this is all rather distant it is definitely something to watch and hold on to in hope.
  7. Hi Fred, Great to hear from you and it's good to be back. Yes and what a wild period of weather. Snow at times over this week. R
  8. Yes indeed. And with each run in the last 36 hours the pivot has increased. Latest fax charts are showing almost an easterly on the stalled leading edge. So does anyone think the snow potential for the borders / north is being slightly under-estimated?
  9. Yes but you've said that we would need the zonal winds to drop. Which is it? The zonal or the blocked Euro high? The two aren't mutually compatible with halting cold over the UK until February March It's December 9th. FI looks tasty on some ensembles. That's the -10C over London. Meantime a lively week of weather with plenty of sleet and snow around.
  10. Based on a lifetime of weather watching and 15 yrs on Netweather, this is a faintly ridiculous post.
  11. There should be little reason for despair. It's the first week of December and the weather is extremely lively. If it's only snow that floats your boat there's some of that in the mix this week. The more serious point is that mobility is much better than a stagnant dirty high. And there's some FI eye candy appearing in the ensembles too
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