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West is Best

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West is Best last won the day on December 19 2016

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    A little bit of writing, occasionally helping to solve a few crimes and a love of snow.
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    Snow and storms

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  1. ... and I still remember the bone chilling November of 1985 when this very similar chart: became this: which then turned into this:
  2. Well it's that time of year when it's time to dust off the keyboard. I hope you have all had great summertimes. What a thing of beauty the GFS12z is today. It's been in the offing for 48 hours and, truth be told, we'd all much rather we saw it in December than October. Still, it's comforting to know that blocking hasn't disappeared from the earth or that the fabled Greenland High is just a thing of legend.
  3. How about you discuss storms instead of using these pages to put the boot in repeatedly to the Met Office?
  4. Still, thankfully folk on Net weather have your forecasting skills on which to rely, Dave. When it comes to spotting an Easterly you're way ahead of the game. The Yellow warning area for Storm Freya was appropriate and commensurate, especially in the south-west where it gusted to 76mph. Their actual forecast wind strengths in the relevant zones were correct.
  5. I think if you're going to criticise the Met Office for, amongst other things, altering their 'local' forecast and then being inaccurate with it you really ought to be able to back that assertion up. Storm Freya gusted to 76mph and was suitably named and suitably warned by the Met Office. It wasn't overly dramatic and they never said it would be.
  6. GFS ... I love it but it's propensity either to wildly over-bake Atlantic storms and then ignore the ones which actually do occur (eg Freya) makes it so erratic. Here's a classic example. Last night's 18z for Sunday: = a deep and potent storm over southern Britain. Six hours later on the 0z run? It's completely vanished!!!!
  7. Big clap of thunder in Exeter at 4pm yesterday. Just thought I'd mention it!
  8. I'd like to see (empirical) evidence please. What your 'local' Met Office altered and what they said. A screen print would be interesting to see, to assess. On the GFS, this is exactly what I mean about them forever getting Atlantic storms wrong. Here's the Sunday chart on last night's 18z run: See that whopping storm? 6 hours later it's completely vanished: We see this time and again and it's why we cannot trust the GFS on Atlantic storms. The Met Office every time for these shores.
  9. Fortunately we rely on something more empirical. The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph. The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west. You can't make this stuff up.
  10. The Met Office were spot on about the relative potency of Freya. They also got it right with the Yellow warning. Had it been a Monday it's possible they might have raised it but it was probably on the cusp. A decent little storm, with some powerful back edge snow. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/04/uk-weather-storm-freya-brings-80mph-gusts-heavy-snow-causes/ Well done to the Met Office. I maintain that for short range forecasting in the UK they are the gold standard and nothing else comes close. As it should be really.
  11. Freya has actually continued to deepen so there may still be some sharp gusts this evening. 977mb now:
  12. I see 76 mph recorded in South Wales. Wonder if anything will top that speed this evening?
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