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SizzlingHeat

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Posts posted by SizzlingHeat

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Myself and my partner went away for a week during Christmas to an absolutely stunning lodge in the Devon countryside, with log burner, hot tub, lovely garden, fire pit etc etc. It was a split decision between Tenerife and Devon. I wanted to go to Tenerife and partner wanted to go to Devon (we had only been to Tenerife in November last year) so we chose Devon, hoping for some seasonal weather, with frost and some sunshine. However, it rained relentlessly from December 22nd right through to boxing day without a break, absolutely dreadful weather. Non stop driving rain with 2 spells of very strong winds. It dried up briefly boxing day afternoon before another named storm arrived Wednesday 27th with gale force winds and driving rain again right through until 29th December when we were leaving. Whilst it was a nice stay, the weather really did put such a downer on the week, it was truly miserable. Didnt get to use the firepit or look at the stars the entire time and due to the wind the hot tub was just generally unpleasant. The owners of the air BnB felt sorry for having such rotten luck and have us a discount when we book again. 

    So we have booked from Friday may 3rd until Monday 6th May, at the time expecting a vast improvement on the absolute garbage over Christmas but looking at the charts during next weekend, it's once again truly looking absolutely miserable. More wet, windy and cold weather. Its truly depressing and I actually launched my phone across the room this morning after that shocking crap the 6z pumped out. I'm just so fed up and angry, spending money to go away with such terrible weather. Just praying that things change for next weekend, even if it was just dry and not particularly warm. Just cannot deal with another weekend away in such a beautiful part of the country, unable to use the facilities of our hideaway cabin. Was really hoping for a nice break away, its been so stressful lately but another few weeks of this I genuinely don't know how im going to get through it. Its so depressing and sucking the life and soul out of any ounce of enthusiasm I have for life anymore.

    I will never book a break away in the UK again that's for sure.

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    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Quite frankly this tedious and compulsive chasing for cold and snow has gone on for long enough now. The charts are showing pretty cold and benign conditions for the vast majority next week before the inevitable milder and wetter breakdown commences from the following week. The chances of snow for the majority are looking slim given the current output. The low to the south is now suggested to stay south enough and the northerly not long or potent enough to produce snow to anybody except usual areas during northerlies. This is probably the longest I have spent observing the model output for the best part of 2 years now, and yet again with disappointment which is the reason I took significant time away to begin with. The obsession and compulsion at every model and every update has become compulsive and adversely affecting productivity in life and work, so I'm going to slap myself in my face and get back to living life away from the ever chase of illusive snow and meteociel. What ever will be will be, but I suppose the positives are that it's cold and dry for most which will alleviate flooding concerns for the time being at least. For the lucky few that get some flurries over the next 7 days, well enjoy. The rest of us will enjoy driving our frosty cars on snowless roads to the office until the wet and windy weather returns. I'm off to live a normal life again. Adios 👋

    • Like 11
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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

    That's not true at all, the initial cold blast is still on for the 14th/15th which is the start. That initial northerly has always been forecast to collapse via a shortwave and this may bring slightly less cold air before perhaps a renew push of cold air down from the North. That's not a certainty but certainly a possibility.

    But it wasn't always forecast to collapse via a shortwave, not until the GFS didn't back down when everyone dismissed it run after run for being an outlier. When the other models finally backed down and went along with GFS. Just always seems to be getting within striking distance and then something else happens and scuppers the really nice charts that always pop up post day 7 and 8. The ECM and Ukmo only until this morning were still showing what the icon is currently showing for 8 days time commencing at 144 hours, this has now again been pushed back. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

    Yes but the fantasy charts never get within 7 days and always get scuppered by shortwaves and nuisances around Greenland. Yes still a brief northerly from Sunday but no snow, just cold and dry before it gets briefly milder again for a day or so then the fantasy charts arrive once more. Just always chasing the unchaseable it seems. 

    2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    -8 Isotherm arrives across the country on Sunday (14th) so not been pushed back at all?

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I very rarely post on here anymore but I like to read the comments and generally follow what's going on. Since joining in 2004, the comments are still broadly similar to 20 years ago. It has always amused me to an extent why people still dismiss models and runs that do not show what they want to see, then rave highly about a particular model when it shows what they want to see. Was still the same 20 years ago as it is now. Still makes me chuckle. However, things are starting to become a little more complicated after the weekend with runs chopping and changing to such a vast degree. Micro analysing each run of each model each day isn't going to help, but I feel personally having a half hour look through the models today that the most likely scenario is colder further north with the highest chance of snow midlands north, becoming milder and more unsettled thereafter. 

    Anyhow, im off again, enjoy the winter and adiós! 

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    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Woken up to calm conditions and light rain in Poole, as expected. Another non event here. The track was nailed by the models and channel Islands really getting hammered. Aside from the far south east this really was a non event for the majority. Again, all the hype and media coverage doesn't help particularly when schools are unnecessarily closed and major events being declared when for 80% of those living in warning areas, the wind isnt even strong enough to fly a kite. Embarrassing really

    • Like 5

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, MattStoke said:

    One run of one relatively low resolution model must be right 🙄

    I cant be arsed to post as I'm using a mobile but all 18z updates so far suggest very similar. Brief gusts to 70mph along south east coast and far south west. Vast majority of South Central England are within the centre of the low with the damaging winds remaining in the channel and over channel Islands. Icon, GFS and arpege all go with a 952mb crossing south Dorset towards Southampton then up towards east Anglia. Brief spell of 40-50mph on back end as winds turn NW across the south west but nothing exceptional for most.

    • Like 2

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by SizzlingHeat

    Latest 18z runs keep this pretty much a channel Islands event. Strong winds east of isle of wight tomorrow gusting 70mph on coasts but pretty normal elsewhere across the south. Bed time for me. All hype as usual! 

    image.thumb.png.de03b083d9742a44098b54c2d3a69c0c.png

    • Like 1

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, CurtisOliver said:

    That’s crazy. 0.3mb drop in 8 minutes.

    I’m now 972.8mb to be precise.

    I think your barometer has malfunctioned. There is no way pressure is that low in your location. I'm in Poole, Dorset and pressure here is 978, which is bang on according to meteociel with Essex being around 985 at the moment. 

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    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

    I wouldn’t rule out red yet. Met office mention centre could be 100 miles N or S of current projections. There needs to be high confidence before that happens which isn’t there at the minute. If it shifts North on this evening runs and tomorrow morning they’ll go red tomorrow but not before then.

    ICON continues south another 50 miles from this morning, removes all of southern England and coasts to barely enough of a breeze to fly a kite.

     

     

    Could contain:

    • Like 2

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Icon continues to take the low further south, indeed so far south now that the south coast will have light winds as the eye passes over. If the GFS 12z continues this south theme then we can start to draw more confidence and as a result I would imagine the warnings for wind would be removed tomorrow morning 

    • Thanks 1

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    The GFS 6z was probably the furthest south across its ensembles for Dorset. Many others within the suite still showing it further north. Mean winds for Poole were the lowest on the op so perhaps an outlier for how far south it was forecast? There are so many still showing up within the 6z which is devastating for the entire south of England. Its still far from over...

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

    My in-depth assessment of those GFS charts is......Oh dear.

    I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The 6z GFS brings things more in line with what the ECM has been showing, which is much improved from the 0z. I did wonder how many times the op run has been consistently at the bottom of its ensembles before it would revert slightly, which makes large differences to the weather. If GFS was correct then quite a reasonable week ahead although breezy but plenty of sunshine and reasonable temps for April out of the wind and in the sunshine.

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