SizzlingHeat

Myself and my partner went away for a week during Christmas to an absolutely stunning lodge in the Devon countryside, with log burner, hot tub, lovely garden, fire pit etc etc. It was a split decision between Tenerife and Devon. I wanted to go to Tenerife and partner wanted to go to Devon (we had only been to Tenerife in November last year) so we chose Devon, hoping for some seasonal weather, with frost and some sunshine. However, it rained relentlessly from December 22nd right through to boxing day without a break, absolutely dreadful weather. Non stop driving rain with 2 spells of very strong winds. It dried up briefly boxing day afternoon before another named storm arrived Wednesday 27th with gale force winds and driving rain again right through until 29th December when we were leaving. Whilst it was a nice stay, the weather really did put such a downer on the week, it was truly miserable. Didnt get to use the firepit or look at the stars the entire time and due to the wind the hot tub was just generally unpleasant. The owners of the air BnB felt sorry for having such rotten luck and have us a discount when we book again. So we have booked from Friday may 3rd until Monday 6th May, at the time expecting a vast improvement on the absolute garbage over Christmas but looking at the charts during next weekend, it's once again truly looking absolutely miserable. More wet, windy and cold weather. Its truly depressing and I actually launched my phone across the room this morning after that shocking crap the 6z pumped out. I'm just so fed up and angry, spending money to go away with such terrible weather. Just praying that things change for next weekend, even if it was just dry and not particularly warm. Just cannot deal with another weekend away in such a beautiful part of the country, unable to use the facilities of our hideaway cabin. Was really hoping for a nice break away, its been so stressful lately but another few weeks of this I genuinely don't know how im going to get through it. Its so depressing and sucking the life and soul out of any ounce of enthusiasm I have for life anymore. I will never book a break away in the UK again that's for sure.

Quite frankly this tedious and compulsive chasing for cold and snow has gone on for long enough now. The charts are showing pretty cold and benign conditions for the vast majority next week before the inevitable milder and wetter breakdown commences from the following week. The chances of snow for the majority are looking slim given the current output. The low to the south is now suggested to stay south enough and the northerly not long or potent enough to produce snow to anybody except usual areas during northerlies. This is probably the longest I have spent observing the model output for the best part of 2 years now, and yet again with disappointment which is the reason I took significant time away to begin with. The obsession and compulsion at every model and every update has become compulsive and adversely affecting productivity in life and work, so I'm going to slap myself in my face and get back to living life away from the ever chase of illusive snow and meteociel. What ever will be will be, but I suppose the positives are that it's cold and dry for most which will alleviate flooding concerns for the time being at least. For the lucky few that get some flurries over the next 7 days, well enjoy. The rest of us will enjoy driving our frosty cars on snowless roads to the office until the wet and windy weather returns. I'm off to live a normal life again. Adios

A very cold yet very dry 18z for the vast majority next week with plenty of crisp sunshine and sharp overnight frosts. Pretty snowless and benign but at least dry and seasonal rather than wet and windy I suppose!

GFS already an improvement at 3 minutes and 45 seconds. Could be a good run

Well the icon is out to 2 hours and I have to say that pressure is already looking 0.025mb higher around the south western coast of Iceland. I have to admit I think this will be a fantastic run given pressure in Newquay is already being slightly overdone by approximately 0.0023mb as per the official recording at Newquay airport. Bring on the 18s!!!

But it wasn't always forecast to collapse via a shortwave, not until the GFS didn't back down when everyone dismissed it run after run for being an outlier. When the other models finally backed down and went along with GFS. Just always seems to be getting within striking distance and then something else happens and scuppers the really nice charts that always pop up post day 7 and 8. The ECM and Ukmo only until this morning were still showing what the icon is currently showing for 8 days time commencing at 144 hours, this has now again been pushed back.

I'm sure we have been stuck at day 7/8 for some time now. The original date of 14th or 15th now pushed back to 17th or 18th. Just like chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, by the time you have got in the car the rain has stopped.

Well the icon is currently out to 45 minutes and the high looks to be about 300 yards further north on the London Road so far on this run so looking promising in these early stages.

18Z is out to 3 hours and the high is 1.5 miles further west compared with the 12Z

I very rarely post on here anymore but I like to read the comments and generally follow what's going on. Since joining in 2004, the comments are still broadly similar to 20 years ago. It has always amused me to an extent why people still dismiss models and runs that do not show what they want to see, then rave highly about a particular model when it shows what they want to see. Was still the same 20 years ago as it is now. Still makes me chuckle. However, things are starting to become a little more complicated after the weekend with runs chopping and changing to such a vast degree. Micro analysing each run of each model each day isn't going to help, but I feel personally having a half hour look through the models today that the most likely scenario is colder further north with the highest chance of snow midlands north, becoming milder and more unsettled thereafter. Anyhow, im off again, enjoy the winter and adiós!

The sun beginning to break through the cloud in Poole. Very little wind, might go and polish off the BBQ to cook some brekkie

Woken up to calm conditions and light rain in Poole, as expected. Another non event here. The track was nailed by the models and channel Islands really getting hammered. Aside from the far south east this really was a non event for the majority. Again, all the hype and media coverage doesn't help particularly when schools are unnecessarily closed and major events being declared when for 80% of those living in warning areas, the wind isnt even strong enough to fly a kite. Embarrassing really

I can definitely see this all over Facebook tomorrow morning for those living in Dorset

I cant be arsed to post as I'm using a mobile but all 18z updates so far suggest very similar. Brief gusts to 70mph along south east coast and far south west. Vast majority of South Central England are within the centre of the low with the damaging winds remaining in the channel and over channel Islands. Icon, GFS and arpege all go with a 952mb crossing south Dorset towards Southampton then up towards east Anglia. Brief spell of 40-50mph on back end as winds turn NW across the south west but nothing exceptional for most.