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SizzlingHeat

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SizzlingHeat last won the day on July 26

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    Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
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    Weather, red wine, bacardi breezers, thunderstorms, hurricanes, the beach, the sea, boats, aeroplanes, xbox, summer, wind, TV, computer, free music, cars, mobile phones, cameras, snooker, tennis, pool, swimming, rollercoaster, anything fast, tornados, hail and fire!

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  1. The 00z was the coolest and wettest ensemble member of the suite. A lot of the 00z members showed the same as the 6z operational so we are back on track
  2. Will be nice to have some rain before the heat returns in a weeks time
  3. The 6z run, once again shows high pressure and high temperatures beginning the middle of next week. After a brief cooler and more unsettled spell, as has been the case for many days now, the strong signal for high pressure remains. These are the charts for Thursday to Saturday at the moment. Temps widely in the low thirties. It's very annoying when people persistently troll this forum with rubbish. Have a look for yourselves....where is the downgrade? I don't see one I just see lots more sunshine and hot weather It's nice that it's within 162 hours now not 240 Uploaded Saturday to Thursday by mistake
  4. The heatwave was never in the realistic time frame and has always been showing from approximately 2nd August. This run shows high temps and high pressure again from the 2nd August, exactly the same as the past few days.
  5. ECM is a disappointment but it's only one run. The signal for of high pressure is still very high. Each run will show a different position. Will look again this evening after the 12s to see how things are going
  6. I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post. Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!) You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading. You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192. Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south. In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August. The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10. There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.
  7. Except the GFS is showing temps into low thirties as soon as a week tomorrow (2nd aug) and mid-high thirties by the Saturday 4th. Even 1st August is in the high twenties (nudging 30) according to this mornings run. Not sure why 30 would only be reached after the 4th. Well not if the majority of ensemble members are to be believed the heat begins on schedule (around 1st or 2nd August) as it has shown now for days and look to be scorching by the weekend. Doesn't look delayed or any less hot than you are suggesting
  8. Yes its progressively cooler for this weekend compared to recent times but the heat is on for mid week next week onwards. Big support all round. Probably the hottest period of the summer still to come!
  9. Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend
  10. GFS seems to be really struggling to lift the trough northwards to allow the high to build. Jet stream a touch too far south with a little too much oomph. Not overly inspiring although the main rebuild of heat is not due until end of the week it's just disappointing there's a lot more low pressure around early next week that what was shown only a day or two ago....
  11. GFS weekend borderline washout for many. Would be a massive surprise if it keeps showing this in a couple of days. Been watching the low creep further east with every run to the extent its nearly on top of the UK come Sunday/Monday. Could be disruptive in terms of delaying or erasing the hot spell mid week!!
  12. Not sure I've ever seen a MEAN chart at over 300 hours with temps showing high twenties....insane. Goes to show the massive support for a significant heatwave for the beginning of August
  13. Yes, the signs are next weekend will cool off a touch but still low to mid twenties quite widely. Then there is growing support of some very hot weather into August. I think the first week of August is going to bring the hottest weather if the summer with temps likely to be mid thirties, possibly high thirties.
  14. Except the charts you have posted are for next weekend....which is July. This is what the same model is predicting for August 1st Completely the opposite of what you have just posted.
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