Sky Full

Oh dear. This is not looking good. The back edge of the system is approaching fast and the snow hasn't even started to settle! Everything is wet and the snow is easing off (despite all my efforts to pretend otherwise!). Unless this system starts to pivot in a serious way to bring the heavier stuff in my direction, it's all going to be over here by 5:00pm. For the south east and borders there is plenty on the way, though...

Light rain should turn to snow later. The main event is not expected until probably after 4:00pm but the ICON is indicating that the snow could continue in some areas until the early hours of Friday* Someone could get up to 10 hours of snow in that case, but not likely to be me! At the moment it is still snowing steadily but still light and not settling. However, we were not expecting a blizzard, were we.... *nb. not all the weather models are not as optimistic as this....

Just driven back from Carmarthen where it was +3c and dry, to Crymych where it is 0c. We could see the whitening top of Foel Cwmcerwyn in the distance but it was still dry this side of the hills. As I write this we now have light patchy snow falling but I can see heavier stuff in the distance. No rain ahead of it, just snow, and the wind has suddenly increased. Hope this strengthens and spreads to all of you lot in the next hour of two.

Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies: These are all cold or very cold charts for the UK. This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here! The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today.... Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018? Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....

You guys in the south east could get five or six hours of disruptive frontal snow tomorrow if the models are even close to getting this right, especially with a little bit of elevation away from the coast: Provided we get enough here in the Preselis to leave footprints and it hangs around long enough to get some pics on Friday, I'll be happy!

The Euro high definition models are showing copious amounts of snowfall for the Beacons tomorrow.....snapshots of forecast snow depth at 2:00 am Friday morning: Thats 30cm showing in that first chart! Pretty sure it won't actually happen quite like that though....

Something's got to turn up soon - there's only another two days left for people to say: 'Don't worry, it's stil only January'.....

Looking at the way the models handled yesterdays events, here are the charts which the main models were showing on the 23rd January for the 29th January: UKMO ECM GFS GEM ....and here is what actually happened (GFS 0Z and 12Z from yesterday: . For me, the UKMO is the winner in getting the most detail right, but in terms of the general shape of things I don't think any of them did too badly at +144hrs having successfully predicted the position of the main weather influences - the Azores high and the large area of low pressure to the north east. They have therefore managed to predict the direction of the air over the UK and the low pressure area moving into central Southern Europe. The main feature they all missed is the small low pressure in the bay of Biscay which brought the rain and snow to many parts and which was a late development. This reinforces my impression that for local events (i.e. events affecting the UK alone) we can't rely on the models for detail at much more than +72hrs.

Rain stopped a while back, clouds now rolling back nicely, sun appearing in the west as I write this..... Might be a nice evening although we could get some showers later..... all in all I think it's over for Pembrokeshire today. I will be hoping for something more wintry on Thursday or Friday but not placing any bets! Now starting to look at the following week for any signs of more cold weather but time is running out.

Looks lovely up there! We had some quite heavy sleet earlier which I thought might turn to snow but no! Its turned back to rain again - quite heavy and steady, but definitely rain! Ah well, there's always Thursday....

What a contrast from yesterday: grey, 100% overcast skies bringing cold rain although the winds remain light. No sign of snow here at all but I'm hopeful we might see some on Thursday. In fairness, this is the least likely part of Wales to see snow given the proximity of the Irish Sea! Good luck to everyone else who is hoping for a meaningful dumping!

A quick look at the differences between the models at +240hrs as we move into the last full month of the winter: 500s. 850s ECM GFS GFS(p) GEM. . The usual diversity between them at this range is apparent but ECM, GFS and GEM all have a deepening low pressure in the North Atlantic tracking east so could this be the feature which has the greatest chance of verifying? If so, will it move south and allow heights to build over Scandinavia or will it move across the UK bringing probably unsettled, wet and windy conditions. No point looking further ahead for clues because the models will each have a different solution and in any event l am not nearly knowleable enough to form a meaningful opinion!

Hi Knocker - do you have any current or very recent satellite images you could post? I find it very interesting and helpful to compare the current charts and fax charts to the photographic satellite images you share with us from time to time. Understanding how the weather develops over the next few days would be a lot easier if I could see what it looks like from above!

With all the talk about what we can expect from tomorrow and onwards, I just want to put on record what a beautiful, sparkling winters day it's been today. A lovely sunrise followed by mostly clear blue skies with light cumulus clouds passing slowly in a light, almost undetectable breeze..... Quite noticeably mild in the sun which has been lighting up the hillsides and woodlands from a low angle bringing out the colours even though the trees have no leaves. Definite hints of spring with daffs and snowdrops pushing up everywhere. On days like these there is nowhere else in the world I want to be. Who could guess from this what a complete change in the weather is to follow tomorrow and later this week, if the models are to be believed.....?

That must be an amazing piece of programming to separate the pattern into FIVE distinct types of precipitation! I don't even understand the differences - assuming 'verglas' is sleet (?) what are 'brouillard' and 'orage'?

Worth keeping an eye on Friday morning according to the ECM. These charts show conditions at 6:00am: Surface temperature: Accumulated Snow depth: Wind speed and direction: Maximum gusts: Quite a stiff wind along northern and western coasts bringing windchill to below freezing, possible snow lying on higher ground. Might be an interesting morning for early risers.

Just trying to cheer you up mate! This is a model discussion thread, isn't it? Actually 90% of the charts published at more than 24 hours out are also a 'waste of time' as you put it, unless you are interested in the weather after that, how it might develop, how the models vary one from another, which of the models is most likely to verify, which charts are easiest to understand and which show the best detail, how the Jetstream and the Atlantic might affect our weather patterns etc etc. Given that most of us on here are interested in all those things, the snow depth charts are not really a 'waste of time', are they? Even if they don't verify.

The definitive snow depth chart - GFS(P) 10:00am Wednesday: Something there to please everyone, I think, except around the Forth estuary perhaps..... Would be very nice if this verified - even Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get a covering!

Never mind Frosty! Weve got a cold week ahead and you're bound to see some snow. We can then look forward to the Sping!

Snowfall is possible just about anywhere next week according to our own excellent NETWEATHER Precipitation Type charts. Just look at these very promising 3 hourly images for Tuesday for example: The theme continues on Wednesday and Thursday to a lesser extent. See you outside by the lamppost? (usual disclaimers apply - don't expect snow until you see it through the window.....)

Well although the wind kept me awake for part of the night it wasn't the worst storm we've had here by any stretch. Nothing moved or fell off! Hope all is well with the herd. In the meantime, here are a couple of charts for 6:00pm Tuesday showing snow accumulation during the day: These are the worst I can find and other models showing nothing much at all. Not a lot of snow for Pembrokeshire it seems....but these conditions are hard to forecast and might change at the last minute.

I was walking along the coast path at Abercastle only yesterday - from there to Strumble Head must be one of the most dramatic and beautiful stretches of coast among so many in Pembrokeshire, but you are nothing if not exposed to the wind from the north and west..... I hope the ICON is overdoing the wind speeds because other models are not so pessimistic. Good luck with the milking - make sure you rope yourself to the parlour door!

ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!

But....can we be sure this feature will form at all......? Here are the northern hemisphere charts at +240 (5th February) from this mornings output: ECM GFS GFS (p) GEM. Not much agreement there......the only common trend in our location seems to be that the Azores high has been flattened and Atlantic is back in charge with everything coming from the west. No sign of blocking and no easterly or northerly elements. Perhaps this is the trend we should expect for February? As ManWithBeard, JohnHolmes and others have been saying for a long time, the ensembles must be consulted for guidance at this range.

Most of the posts on Netweather are interpreting the enormous variety of model outputs to predict the most likely weather conditions over the next few days or even two weeks ahead, but it seems to me that only those members like Knocker and a few others who concentrate on the short term (24 - 72 hours ahead) are likely to get it right. Here are some examples of model variations over only a 10 day period showing the northern hemisphere for today as predicted 10 days ago compared with the actual conditions this morning: Charts from the 16/01 for 26/01 Same model, actual conditions on the 26/01 ECM GFS GEM Perhaps not surprisingly none of these models either agreed with each other or were able to accurately forecast today's northern hemisphere conditions, and their predictions were in fact quite wide of the mark with only the ECM getting anywhere near the right solution. As far as the detail in our small area of the world is concerned the 10 day outlook in these examples was quite misleading. It just proves to me that although long term trends might be deduced from the model output, beyond 72 hours almost anything can happen locally and we should not be surprised if actual snowfall is not seen in the charts until it's almost on top of us.