Sky Full
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Some torrential bursts of rain over the last hour must have pushed the total up a few mm and our lane outside looks like a river….. Lucky I’m on a hill which drains away in two directions so no risk of flooding but the local roads are going to be flooded in places.
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Steady rain set in overnight and looks likely to continue for a few hours yet, but not so much the wind….? Unless I slept through it (unlikely!) we seem to have missed the worst of the gales and the storm has passed now so the wind should continue to moderate this morning. I’ve seen some images from the Channel Islands though, and I think they’ve had a very rough night.
Three in hospital and homes evacuated as Storm Ciarán blasts Jersey with 100mph winds
JERSEYEVENINGPOST.COM
AT least three people are in hospital and dozens have been moved to hotel accommodation as Storm Ciarán blasts the Island with near hurricane-strength...-
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53 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:
…….
I was pleased to see that the moss is finally making a comeback in the lawn, after it took a beating during that hot dry patch all those months ago in May/June. I’m perhaps odd in wanting it there, but I’m not bothered about having a perfect lawn and the moss helps to regulate the flow of water off the hill - towards the kitchen floor - in wet weather.
That made me smile! I’m also not worried about a perfect lawn and sometimes think I’ve got more weeds than grass! I let half of it grow wild in the summer but all that achieved was to allow the dandelions and buttercups to become totally dominant! Even so, it’s nice to see it when it’s cut but no chance of that now - I can’t even walk on it without sloshing around in the puddles and I’m supposed to have a well-drained garden!
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Well, the ground around here is well and truly saturated and the grass is mostly like walking on marshland. If there’s going to be any chance of cutting the grass again before the winter I’m going to need at least 48 hours without rain and preferably two consecutive days of sunshine. Nothing like that is currently being forecast in the reliable timeframe and the main immediate concern is likely to be wind, anyway. Still, I continue to hope for a break in this very unsettled weather - maybe around mid-November. It would be good to have that followed by increasingly cold and frosty conditions as December approaches. It’s still possible!
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10 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:
I'm amazed it's only a yellow but I guess it's because it is still four days out from today and details can change by then. Given that currently the various models are pretty much in agreement of the track I'm quite sure it will be turning into at least an amber warning either tomorrow or Tuesday. Feel relieved to hopefully be spared the worst myself but sorry for all those in it's path. Hopefully our village bonfire night on Friday will go ahead before the next deep low rattles in. Will be interesting to see how low the barometer will fall.
We are indeed forecast to be lucky as things stand. The tip of Cornwall, the south coast, the Channel Islands and East Kent are currently in the firing line for what could be severe storm force winds. There is another system barrelling across the Atlantic immediately after Ciaran but this looks like it’s targeting Northern France according to the models.
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A yellow warning for damaging winds on Thursday has now been issued by the MetO and the storm has been given a name - Ciaran.
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All the models are currently forecasting a deep low pressure system arriving in the south-western approaches by next Thursday. This is likely to become a named storm and is currently shown to generate some damaging gusts - even the UKMO is predicting 100mph gusts in the channel next week…..
This image shows the system circulating around south Wales so we might not be affected by the worst of the storm but it’s worth keeping an eye on it - if it tracks further north and deepens it could leave a trail of destruction.
. Hopefully, it will move south and moderate…
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Already been noted above, but you don’t get to see 110mph wind gusts charted for the channel every day, especially by UKMO, so I couldn’t resist putting this up…..
Im sure that’s going to moderate before next Thursday, and I’m just hoping it doesn’t move further north….!
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More pulses of heavy rain continue move north-east across Wales this morning, a pattern we have seen for several days now. Even my otherwise totally disinterested better-half has commented on the growing intensity of the showers moving in off the Atlantic, asking me why our rain is suddenly so tropical in nature! I’m afraid I couldn’t give a very convincing answer, but I guess it’s an increasing ability of the atmosphere to hold more water vapour as the climate gradually warms, also causing more and more turbulence. Can anyone give me a more scientific answer to this question? Or are we simply experiencing a relatively wet Autumn which is not actually very unusual?
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On 19/10/2023 at 10:18, Mixer 85 said:
What I find baffling is that some folk in here believe that the current warming is going to lead to a complete catastrophe and the extinction of our species. This is ludicrous and has no support from the scientific literature.
………
Regarding the catastrophic outlook some believe justify such tyrannical actions, there have been periods in the past that have been much warmer and quite benign, where life has flourished. What makes this period of warming so different and so catastrophic? Honestly I’d be a lot more alarmed if temperatures were trending colder, then we’d have a real humanitarian catastrophe on our hands.
Yes - human life might still be viable on a planet with runaway greenhouse warming, but crucially it definitely wouldn’t be ‘life as we know it’. Indefinitely preserving life on earth as it exists currently is an impossible task but preserving it unchanged for humanity for another 1000 years is probably what we are trying to do in combatting climate change.
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More intense showers this morning but no reports of flooding or disruption locally. Looks like the rest of the day will have some sunshine and scattered heavy showers. It’s also an unsettled outlook for the rest of the week but no sign of really cold weather yet. Still got a surprising number of wasps, flies and slugs about so it must be mild!
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7 minutes ago, wimblettben said:
I think that rain had produced some lightning earlier as I saw some very infrequent distant flashes to my south or southeast about an hour or so ago.
I thought I caught a flash through the window (not that kind of flash!) but we were watching that film about Dream Alliance - the valleys racehorse - and we were glued to the set. Didn’t hear any thunder or see any other signs of lightning but it wouldn’t surprise me if some popped anywhere along this line.
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18 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:
A pretty decent day here, too, apart from the brief torrential downpour as I walked from the surgery to the car park after having my flu and covid jabs.
Thanks for the warning! It’s just about to hit here.
You’re going to get a soaking!
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On the radar, it looks like two separate squall lines squeezed into a band about twenty miles apart and the rain falling from the area between is like being in the centre of a heavy thunderstorm. I can hear it falling onto the roof, the car and the ground outside and it’s quite something to listen to it….very noisy. I’ll be glad when it eases up, probably after midnight at this rate! Where is all this water going to go??
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For those of you who are in the firing line for this band of rain I recommend that you make sure your windows are all shut tonight! The rain is now torrential and has now been falling like this for an hour or so, following an hour of less heavy stuff. The yellow warning is perfectly justified especially as it looks like we’ve got another hour to go before it passes through. I don’t have a rain gauge but I can’t believe we’ve had less than a couple of centimetres in the last hour. Must be horrible to be driving in it.
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The band of heavy rain (for which a yellow warning has been issued today) has reached us and is moving through as I write. Otherwise, today has been a really usable day with a lot of sunshine even if it was watery at times! The breeze was refreshing and not a nuisance and on a scale of 1 to 10, for late October, I give it an 8!
(Not a very scientific analysis but we don’t always need charts to express our feelings about the weather!
)
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After a generally wet day yesterday, this morning has started out dry and the sky is brightening gradually with the chance of a little sunshine perhaps, before the clouds return later. It has also been unusually calm, due to the circulation of the low pressure system being positioned favourably for this part of the world. It appeared to me that all the strongest winds were circulating around a centre point very close to Pembrokeshire for most of the last two days, so we were effectively in the ‘eye of the storm’, so to speak.
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It’s a rare let-off for south west Wales as we seem to have dodged the worst of both the wind and rain from Babet. We had some torrential showers earlier but relatively short-lived and since then it’s been a fairly quiet and dry evening. As things stand it might be that Pembrokeshire will be one of the driest areas throughout the UK over the next few days which is a sentence I never thought I’d be able to write!
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A much better start to the day here, with scattered cloud and large areas of open sky which should bring prolonged sunny spells today. However, as I write this a rogue cloud has just started a light shower right above me - just to prove that Mother Nature always has the last word!
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It’s looking like a solid 8 to 10 hours of steady rain for most of Wales starting at about 8pm tonight which will deliver 40-50mm widely across the country with some heavier bursts locally. Here’s the UKMO chart for rainfall accumulation until midnight Friday….
I’m not convinced this outlook merits a MetO warning but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt - better to be forewarned than ignorant!
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Oh dear! That DOES look like a Landrover….. (Range Rover)
Is this the car that started the London Luton car park fire? Moment vehicle goes up in flames before inferno caused £20m structure to collapse - sparking chaos with all flights cancelled until 3pm and five rushed to hospital | Daily Mail Online
MOL.IM
Fire crews spent some 12 hours battling the inferno at the airport's £20m Terminal Car Park 2 after the multi-storey was engulfed by flames and caved in just before 9pm...-
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13 minutes ago, jonboy said:
Some of the eye witness reports would suggest an EV. I wouldn't be surprised if all 1200 cars are lost as much down to the structural instability and the cost to shore up the floors before anything can be moved on ground floor. I would say everything above ground floor level is gone.
Well that would mean self-igniting EVs have already sunk a cargo ferry and destroyed a car park in the space of four months. One more such disaster would have to be enough for a public enquiry into the long term safety of these vehicles if we are all expected to switch to them over the next 20 years. My decision has already been made - I’ll never buy one and I will just have to make my ICE stay alive as long as I do!
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Headlines today:
All flights suspended as large fire breaks out at London Luton Airport
Witnesses report cars exploding as fire service tells people to avoid the areaNo reports yet on the cause of this extremely damaging fire but it would be a huge story if an EV started it. I wonder if the Fire Brigade will announce the cause of this disaster in the next few days.
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Looks like a new “atmospheric river” of rain will be affecting Wales, the South West and/or parts of the Midlands over the next few days. Here are the rainfall accumulation charts up to Monday midnight from the main models courtesy of Meteologix.com….
UKMO
GEM
North West Scotland also getting another soaking.-
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Storm Ciaran yesterday, and then the morning after…..
Mother Nature has a strange sense of humour, perhaps?