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Nothing much to write about the weather tonight but I did enjoy these lovely cloud formations just after sunset……

Weather headlines tonight…. Live updates as Storm Elin flood warnings and alerts issued in Wales - Wales Online WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK Storm Fergus has also been named to hit on Sunday So, Storm Elin to be quickly followed by Storm Fergus, with wind rain and flood warnings aplenty. Just another standard weekend of Winter weather for Wales, really….

Peak wind gusts now likely to occur between 6:00pm and 7:00pm tonight according to the Icon….. Looks very windy for northern hills and the coast of Anglesey.

Some early signs of a deep Atlantic low pressure system arriving at the end of the week which could bring some strong winds again. Too soon to say whether this will end up as a ‘storm’ but it’s worth watching to see if it amplifies over the next few days… UKMO wind gusts Friday 3:00am (NB certain to change over the next few days)….

Absolutely chucking it down here all morning. If this had been snow, we’d be buried by now!

A cold dawn this morning….

A surprising (for December 1st) -7C showing on my admittedly unscientific digital thermometer this morning. Might even top this tonight. Unusually low temperature for this time of year but more puzzling is the difference between what I am seeing and what was forecast for this area. Anyway, it’s a welcome cold spell since these are the conditions required to kill off the pests before winter and reset natures clocks. Maybe it’s a sign of a more cold weather to some - there’s certainly no shortage of cold air in Europe now, if we can tap into it.

NW ‘Precipitation type’ chart for 9:00am Thursday…..(pink = snow) I Well, I was not expecting THAT a week ago. A cold start to December is nailed on, that’s no longer in doubt. (If you look closely, you can just make out the M4! )

Unbelievably, these are ‘snow depth’ charts for Thursday afternoon…. GFS. GEM I was not expecting to see charts like this in November. However, even at only four days away, predictions like this must be taken with a shovel full of salt. Other outcomes are still very possible but it looks like a cold start to December and that’s pretty much nailed on.

Recorded a -4C outside at 7.30am this morning. Can’t remember a November getting down to that level of frost in recent years. Is this an early sign of a memorable Winter to come? It was looking very pretty outside with everything coated in white but the sun is melting it off the trees already.

Must have had a shower overnight - which ended a welcome 72+ hours without rain here - but this morning it’s bright and dry with only a light breeze and definitely feeling colder. Are we heading for a ‘cold snap’ or is winter proper arriving earlier than usual? Would be advisable to prepare for some frosts over the next week or so.

GEM says 22cm snow accumulating in the Brecons by 01/12……. Better dust off that sledge, Andy!

What about a little covering of snow for everyone in about 10 days time… ️️

It looks like you’ve timed your winter return this year to perfection! Cold and frosty being promised for as soon as the 30/11 by the good old GFS!

That is an interesting and revealing graph, but does it represent a global mean or is it representative of one particular location? I only ask because the temperature gradients are typical of the northern hemisphere seasons and I would have expected a global mean to be less sensitive to seasonal changes?

Excuse my ignorance and my laziness in not searching for the answer elsewhere, but can anyone explain how this slow-down is measured and how does it manifest itself in real terms?

GEM from +144h to +240h … So close, but no cigar…yet!

After a batch of pre-dawn showers this morning, the day has started very promisingly with the clouds dispersing, the sun shining brightly and not a breath of wind to shake the few leaves remaining on the trees. There’s plenty of rain coming this way later, so these lovely conditions are strictly temporary. Not the slightest sign of frost in this part of the world so far this Autumn - it seems to get later and later as each year passes…..

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The problem being that, whether they like it or not and whether they think it’s fair, or not, the many generations to come will be paying for the sins of THIS generation. The people alive in the world today are the only ones in the history of this planet who are both fully aware of the damage being done, and are still just capable of restricting the damage if they take action now. Failure to take action globally (not just country by country based on a league table of previous emissions) will condemn all future generations to a climate over which they no longer have control because the damage will already have been done.

Definitely a surprise. Yesterday afternoon I was forecast to get 17mm of rain today but this morning it’s just 2.5mm! I’m not complaining, but it has occurred to me that quite a lot of active weather has tracked further south than expected recently, and I’m wondering if that’s a trend or just a coincidence?

Comparing these charts at +120h appears to display some agreement at least….Atlantic low pressure almost upon us: ECM 0z. UKMO 0z GFS 6z. GEM 0z ……but by +240h the same models are far apart: ECM 0z - cold N/W flow (UKMO data not available here) GFS 6z - potentially cold northerly GEM 0z - relatively mild S/W flow This can only mean one thing….. charts much beyond +120h are not to be taken seriously!

Here we go again…. A yellow warning for high winds from Storm Debi has been issued covering north and west Wales for Monday…. UK weather warnings WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings. South Wales - you’re safe for the time being!

A rare 24 hours with no rain yesterday has been followed by a very wet night and morning today. I’m not confident that we’ll get another completely rain free 24 hours in the next couple of weeks and quite possibly not before the end of the year. The outlook is so unsettled with no signs of prolonged high pressure so it’s a strongly Atlantic driven prospect for the rest of November.