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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Now we can be pretty confident that HLB will bring easterly winds to the UK for several days, if not longer, from next Friday. But how do the models see the conditions progressing from there? There seems to be much still to be resolved as the following charts indicate: +120hr (23rd Feb). +216h (27th Feb) ECM 500s GFS 500s GEM 500s JMA 500s ECM. 850s GFS. 850s GEM. 850s JMA. 850s. Even at +120 there is no solid agreement regarding the starting conditions (although the JMA does look a lot like the ECM), so it's no surprise that only four days later the models have diverged - the blocking is in three different places by +216, the codest to air is further south, east or north depending on which model you prefer, and the winds are at different strengths. The actual conditions we see could therefore vary widely from the current models by that time and we will just have to keep watching Too many charts? Possibly, but I find it difficult to compare the performance of the operationals unless I see them side by side. I am trying to be completely indifferent to the possibly record breaking conditions which are being forecast for 10 days away, the details of which we cannot know at this range, because I am more interested to see which model gets closest to the correct evolution. It's fair to say that in later frames all the models show some pretty amazing conditions which may turn out to be almost unheard of at this time of year, but quite how that will affect us around the country and how long it will last cannot yet be confidently predicted..... Except that it will be cold Anyway, we will no doubt all be spending far too much time glued to the PC screen, or our mobile phones, over the next two weeks, to the point where it may cause friction at home - so don't forget to feed the dog and occasionally talk to your significant others out there in NETWEATHER land!
  2. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Re: the forecasted easterly - those in the east may be rubbing their hands in expectation and they might well be the first to see any snow, but here in Wales it looks like we will get among the lowest overnight temperatures.... . if these temperatures continue to drop, and hang around long enough, then we can expect some epic snowfall when any Atlantic fronts try to move in from the west later....
  3. Quite right! And I can't help thinking that the models may not be capable of handling the very unusual atmospheric conditions which have occurred recently. The models will always trend towards the average, and the further out they are asked to look, the further from extreme conditions they will try to get - therefore I think the models could be under-cooking the conditions we might get in the next two weeks. There is no point getting too excited or despondent over each daily run - we will only know how what we can expect after the 23rd. (Only IMO, obviously. )
  4. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    CRIKEY! Next week we might get a 48 hour spell with NO RAIN! That's got to be worth waiting for! Maybe an early sign of Spring??? It would be great to be able to step outside with no puddles! Whether or not the cold gets here, what I want right now is DRY! (Followed by frost. Then snow. Obviously).
  5. I am tempted to post only the very best eye-candy charts which I could hand pick from the many showing in the models 8 to 10 days away but I am going to keep my focus on the 23rd February which was the date, three or four days ago, when the models were predicting the start of this cold spell. The models have swung to and fro over the last few days but this is what they are now showing for 23/02/18: ECM GFS GEM JMA I have been looking for convergence between them all and there are more similarities today than before, but still no overall agreement. At least they are all showing a definite easterly/south easterly flow so it's on the way.... GEM wins the prize for bringing the coldest air furthest west at the earliest date but in fairness the other models are all going in the same direction (of course, there are some eye watering charts in later days but these are less likely to be accurate at this range). The UKMO is also going the right way at the end of the available run: UKMO. . If all these charts continue to show the same evolution then it is certainly 'when' and not 'if' we see some below average cold conditions with at least a few places recording record low daytime temperatures for this time of year. I am definitely going back to ALDI to see if they have got any of those snow shovels left, but don't tell anyone else or they might sell out before I can there....
  6. Plenty of discussion and angst on here this morning about the way the models are trending so I thought I would put up some charts for people to see what the differences are. Concentrating as before on the 23rd February, this is how the models see things in eight days time: ECM GFS GEM JMA There are still many differences between these models by the 23rd although there is very loose agreement between the last three which indicates possible convergence, but there are still clearly many solutions possible over the next eight days. One thing is clear - cold air is not far away from the UK and it is still very likely we will see lower than average temperatures towards the end of the month. Interstingly, the UKMO brings forward the start of colder conditions to +144h: UKMO I still think this is too far out to be confident of the outcome though, and I doubt that the charts on the 21st February will actually verify quite like this. Even so, everything still points to a cold end to the month with the possibility of snow especially in the east (to begin with).
  7. Well, I'm definitely buying you a drink on the strength of that story alone, if I should ever find myself in the Cambourne area! In the meantime, as this is the 'moans' thread, among other things, I wish the models could find a way to agree with each other on what's going to happen in the next seven days - you wouldn't think it was beyond the ability of modern computer science to achieve that much? Mind you, it cant even provide me with a decent broadband speed yet - still working at a snails pace here - so I won't hold my breath.
  8. Hi Knocker. Wow! Didn't know about your sea going past. Bet you've got some great stories to tell down the pub as I know what the after effects of even a relatively mild storm can do to a channel ferry crossing. . I can't deny that I still get a little excited, even at my age, at the sight of snow falling and settling - it simply transforms the landscape into a photographers dream - but I also agree that many people need to be careful what they wish for..... All extreme weather events are a threat to life somewhere and surely no-one would wish for weather related deaths?
  9. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Another very wet, windy, miserable morning here today. Don't know how many days we have like this so far this winter but it's time for a change. Whatever the SSW brings for us, be it cold and snowy or mild and fine, I just hope it quietens down the Atlantic for a couple of weeks and allows the ground dry out for while. Everything is soaked and the roads are awash. Enough is enough I say!!
  10. For several days now the models have indicated that the SSW might begin to affect UK weather patterns by around the 23rd February. Here are the charts for +216h (23/02) as of this morning: ECM GFS GEM JMA. . Now, correct me if I am wrong, but this looks like four very different solutions in nine days time although the JMA and ECM do have some agreement. Unfortunately the UKMO does not go out this far so we can't use it to try and get some additional guidance. I just don't understand how we can know which of these charts is the correct one, or if all of them are wrong at this distance. Just because one might show the conditions we want to verify does not mean that is the correct prediction. All the charts imply that cold conditions are likely but there is enough disagreement to suggest it could still go either way. Whatever conditions I might wish for in late February, I am sitting on the fence until all the charts start to converge which might be a few days away yet.
  11. Don't worry - our time will come... The models are only showing easterly solutions into far FI at the moment but once the Atlantic gets its act together again (probably late March!) then we will see fronts banging into the (by that time) bitterly cold air anchored over the UK, and Wales and the West Country will be in the firing line for some fun and games!
  12. All the charts I have been watching have indicated that the 21st to 23rd February is likely to be the start of any swing to colder conditions following the SSW. However, there is still some disagreement about the way things will pan out as these +216h 850hpa temp anomaly charts imply: ECM Is now similar to.... GEM But quite different from...... GFS. With respect to the placement of the coldest uppers, ECM and GEM favour Northern Europe and the U.K., but GFS says central and Southern Europe only at this date. I think it will take a few more days before there is any certainty about the extent and duration of any cold conditions brought about by the recent stratospheric turmoil. Could still go either way, I feel, although the chances of a memorable cold spell are increasing daily now.
  13. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Many parts of Wales in the firing line for possible snow on the following days in the coming week: Sunday: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday This does not include random wintry showers almost anywhere. The charts show just a probability at this stage - not definite yet by any means - but the winter of 2017/18 hasn't been uneventful for Wales and continues to deliver some interest this week. Of course there is the longer term prospect of even more severe conditions later in the month but this still has to be verified and I will wait until we are within 24/48 hours of the events before getting too excited. Right now we are back to moderate to heavy driving rain in quite strong westerly winds - again - and I will be happy when this eases up!
  14. Further to my last post, not wishing to be taken for a scurrilous ramper, I would add that we currently have nothing like the extent or depth of low uppers over Europe which were evident in 1962/3 and which contributed to the record low temperatures that year. There is therefore no chance of similarly arctic conditions developing on this occasion. And I am not related to Michael Fish, either.....
  15. I think it's reasonable to say that there are considerable similarities between these two February charts which are only a couple of days apart: ECM. GFS and this one too: Just check out the date of that last chart That's just a bit too close for comfort! Not saying the Thames will freeze over or anything, but if the balls all end up in the right pockets we will certainly need to dig out those thermals....
  16. Wow! We have had nearly all the big hitters on here today each with very interesting, educational and at times exciting posts regarding the predicted SSW and the consequences for the UK weather towards the meteorological end of this winter. We are very lucky to have access to so many knowledgeable opinions and analyses even if they don't always draw the same conclusions from the model output. It's fascinating to watch it unfold to say the least. The last few days on the MOD thread could easily form the basis of an Oscar winning big budget disaster movie - you can imagine the title: "Avengers - The Never Ending Winter", or "SSW - Vortex Terminator". I'm sure you could come up with better suggestions.... Anyway, in a genuinely affectionate way, I suggest Tom Cruise to play 'Mission Possible' Steve Murr, Robert Downey Jr for 'Iron Man' Chionomaniac, Chris Hemsworth for 'Thor' Catacol, and Jennifer Lawrence plays 'Mystique' Tamara. Sir Patrick Stuart would be good in the role of 'The Prof' John Holmes. There's a massive cast of stars I haven't mentioned but all deserve an Award for their performances in here, in my opinion. Meanwhile, out at +240h towards the end of its current run (12Z), the GFS is creeping ever closer to verifying the wintry potential: ECM and GEM on the other hand have apparently not yet read the plot..... (all charts at +240h)
  17. Correction (unable to edit) - should of course have read: "....being drawn west from the continent".
  18. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Back to wet, dreary, cloudy conditions this morning. Ugh. Can't complain too much though as yesterday was a truly wintery snowy day with some sparkling sun too. Could do with more like that but at least we did get some proper snow this year.
  19. Everything about the GFS 0Z post 192h spells cold conditions for the UK: Blocking sets up over Scandinavia: Ever colder uppers being drawn east from the continent: Jet stream dives south over Africa: These are great charts for coldies! 21st to 23rd of February looks to be the period to watch. It's just a pity that the GFS generates so little confidence from long term posters on here. Does this mean we should ignore the GFS FI charts when they show these conditions? Of course not! PS. Damn predictive text - for 'coldies' I was offered 'collies' or 'oldies' - the predicted conditions would be good for one but not necessarily the other!!
  20. Sunrise 07 Feb.JPG

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  21. Foel Cwmcerwyn from Ty Canol.JPG

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  22. Pembrokeshire morning.JPG

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  23. Presellis from Ty Canol.JPG

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  24. Ty Canol.JPG

    © Sky Full

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