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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Continuous, sometimes heavy, rain has been falling here since 12.00 noon, and even before that we had a light drizzle on and off for a couple of hours. The wind has strengthened and has been gusty most of the evening. The forecast is for this to continue through the night and maybe for tomorrow morning as well. No doubt about it, the land around here has been well and truly watered! Now would be the right time for August to bring sunshine and a little warmth back to west Wales for a week or two before the Autumn brings more unsettled weather in advance of the Winter season....
  2. Next 72 hours accumulated rainfall chart from WRF 0.05d: West is best if it's rainfall you are looking for but everyone gets wet at some time.
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Was pretty much a perfect summers day here earlier - mainly blue skies with a few light clouds, and about 23/24C. Now the clouds have thickened and we are only going to get a few sunny periods this afternoon. Still, it's been dry enough to cut the grass and it looks lovely! A bit brown in places, but that's to be expected as the rainfall has been well below average this summer..... even here!
  4. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    After a lovely bright start to the day here, the clouds have quickly moved in and now we have light rain again. The radar indicates that this will move away - I hope so because I do need to cut the grass now. After several weeks of little or no growth its shooting up again like Spring! Edit: the rain is getting heavier! But showery?
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Finally, after much drizzle and low cloud throughout the day, a bit of blue sky has emerged in the west and the sun is breaking through again. The hillsides are positively glowing green in the sun and look absolutely beautiful! Thank goodness for our lovely rain. Perhaps the weekend will be dry and warm as forecast - but hopefully not the tropical heat they have experienced in the south-east. They can keep that to themselves...... I'm very happy with our summer so far although it looks like we'll have more unsettled weather for a while here. There's some talk elsewhere of another warm period before August is finished but I dont think this is aimed at us....
  6. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Dull, misty and cool this morning but at least the wind had dropped..... Heatwave.... what heatwave is that then?
  7. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    We've had a couple of pretty Autumnal days here with mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and quite a strong S/SW wind. No showers today but not much in the way of blue skies either. When the sun does make it through the cloud cover you can certainly feel it still has strength but we need the clouds to move away before temperatures are going to get much above ordinary. The forecast has us down for light rain again tomorrow and the heat of July is already beginning to fade into memory..... . Maybe things will be more settled toward the end of the week?
  8. Re Tamaras detailed and educational post above - what an incredible planet we live on, and how lucky are we to live in this part of the planet where the weather and climate is so unpredictable.... Will the models ever be good enough to take all the variables into account? I will not attempt any further analysis of the models at this time but it appears that they are at least in agreement that: a) the south and south east will see some very warm to hot temperatures this weekend, and b) temperature records are likely to be broken somewhere in Iberia in the next few days.
  9. Good Lord - I never knew there were 8000m hills in Cumbria! Must take some climbing.... We have also had three days of rain - heavy showers Saturday, heavy driving rain in strong winds yesterday (more like Autumn), clear overnight and then heavy rain again this morning without the wind. Pretty normal for here, really. It's brightened up nicely now, and I'm hoping for a few more settled and warm days up to the weekend. Everywhere is looking much greener already.
  10. Perhaps that's just one front, but segmented/fragmented....? Anyway, it's well beyond my level of understanding so I'd better go and consult the text books!
  11. The satellite image appears to show more cloud in the south east than in the west, for a change..... And that fax chart looks unusually busy with the U.K. being affected by four fronts at the same time! We have certainly seen the effects here today with bands of heavy rain moving across, although fairly briskly on gusty south westerlies. Dry at the moment but the models indicate that some rain will persist in the west until maybe Monday midday.
  12. The following charts show the four main models predictions for the 4th August (+144hrs): 500s 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM. . All in broad agreement with a low pressure developing in the North Atlantic close to Iceland, as before, and the Azores high pushing in towards Northern Europe and the U.K. The hottest uppers remain bottled up over Iberia and at this stage only the GEM indicates that they will be drawn north in later frames. Even so, the charts above indicate a return to settled conditions for most of the U.K. for a time with plenty of warmth and sunshine. It does look to me that the blocking across Scandivia is weakening compared with earlier runs and if this verifies we could see more influence from the Atlantic by mid-August. P.S. It has to be said, in any normal UK summer we would probably be very happy to see the above conditions occur even two or three times, but this year they seem extremely ordinary!
  13. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Our long period without any meaningful rain is finally over.... After heavy showers yesterday, persistent driving rain has moved in overnight accompanied by strong, gusty winds from the south west. Conditions almost akin to an Autumn storm rather than normal summer rainfall. I wouldn't usually say this but 'thank goodness for the rain!' It will be good to see the grass growing again and maybe some water in the streams. I have put away the garden hose - for the time being at least....
  14. Fully overcast here with heavy driving rain since before dawn accompanied by strong gusty wind from the south west. Sorry, no air temperature available, but noticeably cooler.
  15. What an incredible image that is! Would have been nice to enjoy some beautiful skies like that in Pembrokeshire but sadly fully overcast last night completely obscuring the partial eclipse.... Looks like we will now have 48 hours of showery, breezy weather here with average temperature values - a very typical summer picture really. Looking forward to seeing your analysis of the gradual changes expected next week though....
  16. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Wildfires can occur naturally but very rarely do, as lightning is about the only 'natural' source of ignition. The fires which occur dally on the hills and elsewhere in hot, dry weather are sadly anything but natural, being mostly caused by brainless arsonists or careless smokers and are therefore not beneficial in any way. Nature cannot cope with fires when they are so frequent and widespread and recovery from the damage is unlikely. Insects including butterflys and ladybirds, beetles, rare amphibians and reptiles and small mammals are all at risk and cannot escape. Birds and bats also suffer due to loss of their usual food sources. The punishment for arson is woefully inadequate.
  17. What are the big four showing for the 2nd August (+144hrs): 500s 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM Not all that much difference between them at this distance - all have a North Atlantic low pressure more or less centred over Iceland while the Azores high continues to doggedly reassert itself over Western Europe. However, only the GEM has the warmest Mediterranean sourced uppers being drawn towards the UK at this stage. Cooler conditions than of late prevail on the other three models but the picture is poised for further high pressure dominated dry and warm weather to continue well into August if the blocking across Scandinavia refuses to give way. This has been the most exciting year for weather for a long time in my memory, and this summer has already provided enough extremes to jump straight into the top three summers of recent decades. And it's not even August yet...... I imagine there will be many references to the 'long hot summer of 2018' on this forum for many years to come. (Have not been able to delete these two surplus charts - just ignore them. Doh!)
  18. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The cloud base has lowered here now and is delivering some (more) welcome rain - albeit light. This is not showing up on any radar I can find but is predicted correctly by the WRF 0.5 with more of the same tomorrow....  Wednesday looking like the driest day of the week in the west, at least.
  19. The cloud base has lowered here now and is delivering some welcome rain - albeit light. This is not showing up on any radar I can find but is predicted correctly by the WRF 0.5 with more of the same tomorrow.... Wednesday looking like the driest day of the week in the west, at least.
  20. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Another cloudy start here in the far west - was foggy overnight too - keeping temperatures well below those in the east. When the sun appeared yesterday afternoon the temperatures rocketed and we had a lovely evening here. It was a warm night, but no daytime temperature records are likely to be broken in Pembrokeshire. I'm not complaining though - the grass is growing strongly again which is very good news for the dairy and sheep farmers.
  21. Looks like the cloud might hang around in the west for most of the week due to slowly traversing successive fronts?
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I will never understand the brain dead, backward mentality of people who throw rubbish from their car window into the road, whether it's a country lane or a motorway. It's a disgusting, lazy, unsociable habit. The weather has changed today with cloudy skies and much lower temperatures - more comfortable it has to be said - but still no sign of meaningful rain. This has been the longest almost completely rain free period I can remember. The ground remains rock hard and dusty. On the MOD thread many seem to believe that the hot weather is going to return but I am inclined to think we are in for a more normal spell of weather for the rest of July, at least here in the west.
  23. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Having to pinch myself again as I look outside and see another sunny, warm, dry day ahead. It's got to be the best summer spell I can remember and it still has some legs! The countryside is beginning to look parched, though, which is something you can never say about Wales usually, and the sheep and dairy farmers are going to struggle to feed their animals unless the grass starts growing again soon. For that to happen we need some rain but it seems unlikely that we are going to get much in the next seven days, at least ....
  24. Sky Full

    World Cup 2018

    I've been lucky enough to be able to watch most of the games in this World Cup including most of the group games and whatever their reputations are, none of the superstar teams of past years were playing world class football, in my opinion. This includes Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Spain and Portugal. With the exception of France, the usual favourites were all below their historic best and all have been eliminated accordingly. England, on the other hand, have performed significantly better than in the past and are playing like a Premiership team who have been together for years, not a matter of a few weeks. They deserve praise for this alone, whether or not they go on to play in the final. Given their average age, and the potential for future development, English football should be able to enjoy more international success in the future and their FIFA ranking will undoubtably rise. They have faced some capable teams and beaten them. Be happy for them, don't knock it. They may have their hardest challenge ahead, but that's the way of knockout competitions and to have got this far is something to celebrate.
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