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Sky Full

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  1. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    OMG! Just seen your latest post above - if that Monday night snowfall is still being shown on Sundays charts I'm definitely travelling back Monday morning!
  2. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Thanks mate - I thought you might say that. Might try and get back Monday as it happens. Mind you, I think there might be worse conditions on the cards for the following week so anyone travelling after next weekend should keep a close eye on the forecasts.
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Hi Andy. I've got to drive back from London one day next week - I can pick either Tuesday or Wednesday. Assuming I make it back down the M4 to make my first EVER free crossing back to Wales (at last!!) will I make it back along the rest of the M4 to Carmarthen, as things stand? What day would you choose - or neither??
  4. There is talk among some experienced posters on here about current model offerings recalling 'old school' charts. I believe they might be thinking of certain infamous winters of last century so I thought it would be worth putting up a couple of today's charts followed by charts from a similar period in 1947 and 1963, just to see if there is any resemblance at all. I think all the following charts hold enormous potential: GFS 28/01/19 ECM 25/01/19 24/01/1947 17/01/1963 Are there any similarities between them? What do you think.....?
  5. Looking beyond the imminent arrival of cold conditions next week, the following week could be even colder! Just look at the way the models are predicting the conditions to evolve by the end of the month: ECM GFS GEM. . The ECM is showing exceptional cold for the 28th January. If these conditions verify then next week is just the precursor to an even colder spell at the end of the month when disruptive snow might be expected almost anywhere in the UK...
  6. Don't forget the old adage: "Get the cold in first....."! .... Once the cold air is established the snow is bound to follow
  7. I know we should all be cautious about taking the FI charts seriously, but you have to have a little hit of fun sometimes..... Just look at the end of the GFS run from last night - it's sheer model poetry: That would bring seriously cold conditions nationwide.
  8. The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount. These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!.... Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west. Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!
  9. So, the GFS has turned up the excitement level a couple of notches today. At last we can see something properly wintry for the whole country within less than 10 days. Here's the GFS op showing precipitation type and snow accumulation levels at +162h: CAUTION: do not take these charts as gospel...yet...but the possibility of most of us seeing a wintry spell of weather is getting more and more likely as we approach the end of the month. It's certainly got me interested now, at any rate - but we need more support across the other models. It's my guess that we are going to see that support by the weekend.
  10. Our oil heating depends on the electric pump and electronic controls so it's no good in a power cut. I've considered getting a genny but hooking it up to the house seems complicated! In fairness we don't get that many power cuts but they always happen in extreme weather when we need some form of independent heating hence the log burner..... We haven't used it much this year as its been too warm!
  11. You might also be interested to see how the models have varied from their forecast of 10 days ago. Here are the ECM, GFS and GEM from 7th January showing the 17th January, together with their current output for tomorrow: +240 hr from 7th January: +24hr from now: ECM GFS GEM It is obvious that they all agree about tomorrow's picture..... However, not only were they unable to agree with each other 10 days ago, none of the models were able to predict the correct conditions at +240 (with the exception of the ever-present Azores high) even though we have been experiencing generally settled and non-volatile weather over this period. Surprisingly perhaps, given the flack it generally receives on this forum, the GFS seems to have come closest to getting it right, in my opinion. This just goes to prove that it is pointless getting excited about 10 day charts because the models are not good enough to pin down the detail. They're only any good for looking at trends and disappointment awaits anyone who believes that what is showing today for 10 days time is going to verify......
  12. This is definitely more of a problem for towns and cities than for rural areas. In built up areas where electricity and gas are taken for granted, solid fuel and log burning stoves are a fashion accessory and probably a nuisance where inappropriate fuel is burned by ill-informed city dwellers. But in rural areas which make up most of the land in the UK and where there is no mains gas, log burners become more important. I suggest that they will need to guarantee my overhead electricity supply in all weathers, storms, blizzards and floods included, before they start to complain about the log burner which is our ONLY form of heat in a power cut.
  13. Well, I really hope you're right about that but despite the often repeated mantra in the other thread; "It's all going to kick off in 7-10 days" (or similar) which I have been seeing for, well, at least four weeks now, the models are not showing anything other than a brief north-westerly here, or a short lived north-easterly there. Nothing to suggest a two to three week spell of frost and snow which I think is the hallmark of any self-respecting proper winter. The weather patterns, and especially the jet-stream, will have to make some serious u-turns pretty soon if anything prolonged and seriously snowy is going to affect the UK this winter. Can't believe I'm writing this - it sounds like a 'winter's over' post and I have to remind myself that we still have up to two months when really cold conditions can occur, so must keep the chin up!
  14. There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come. But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK. Snow on the beaches in Greece? I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost. It really isn't fair.
  15. Could not agree more with your comment..... This is a very helpful post for beginners like me! However, with all the anticipation created by the SSW I have been expecting to see some lasting effects on the vortex to evolve in the models, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. These are the main NH views from the main models at +144 this morning: All fairly similar with evidence of disruption visible. And then here are the same models (minus the UKMO) at +240: . Do these images show continued disruption or signs of reorganisation? They don't seem to show the UK benefitting from the effects of the SSW at the 10 day range anyway. This could be any average winter with the Atlantic in charge and no sign of northern blocking to bring lasting wintry conditions to the UK. To my admittedly inexperienced eye, it looks like there will have to be some significant changes of direction from the models before we can have much confidence in an SSW driven winter.
  16. Trying to look towards the end of the month, CFS (1 month) indicates a possible run of seven days of cold (-4 to -8) uppers from the 20th to the 27th: 850s: 500s: This might be the most likely period for a lasting cold spell to occur.
  17. The best op run this morning for cold conditions is the GFS(p) 0z between 192h and 384h: . Although there are likely to be many changes in the actual outcome, this model has been consistently predicting the coldest evolutions over the last few days.
  18. For those who may be having panic attacks because the ops are not showing snowpocalypse - yet - it might be worth comparing the charts from early January 2017 (remember we had an SSW last year too...) with today's output..... January 7th 2017 Today.... 500s. 850s. Jet stream: Now I won't pretend that they are an exact match, and 'anything can happen in the next half hour' as the saying goes, but to my eye there are many similarities - enough to suggest that we have every reason to keep the faith, because within one month the conditions last year looked like this: So, if you're thinking that the cold weather is all going to Eastern Europe, tune in again next week for a completely different story......
  19. Morning all! Heard some bangers going off last night - was there some sort of party I missed? It's ironic that the 'hottest' thread on NW is the 'hunt for cold'.... and anyone looking for cold conditions in 2019 need look no further than the GFSP at +348: Granted that this is still 14 days away but you've got to start somewhere, right? I'm certain that we are going to see more and more wintery charts appearing in the short term and that we're all going to see snow before the end of January. Happy, Snowy, New Year to everyone.
  20. Sky Full

    Premier League Discussion

    2019 title chase.... Spurs have scored an impressive 11 goals in two games even with some key players on the bench. Their form goes a long way to support the policy of sticking with a proven squad instead of paying out millions to buy more players every summer.... Has the team raised their game to persuade Poch to stay on? We'll never know but with the new stadium ready soon and four competitions still open to them, Spurs have much to look forward to and this will definitely raise spirits. They have two home games (Wolves and Man U) and one away (Cardiff) in the next two weeks and they must win all three to keep in touch at the top. Liverpool are at home to Arsenal and away to Man C and Brighton over this period. If Man C can beat Liverpool and Spurs win all three of their new year matches the gap would close to 3 points at the top. This could set up an exciting run to the end of the season so let's hope Spurs stay in contention! COYS!!!
  21. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Another dull heavily overcast start to the day after a run of similar days with so much moisture in the air everything stays damp all day. We visited Tenby and Saundersfoot yesterday where the sun did come out for part of the afternoon and then treated us to a lovely sunset. Such a beautiful stretch of the Welsh coastline in a country blessed with almost unbroken beauty along its entire coast. Tenby always looks lovely whatever the weather. It would be nice to see a little more wintery sunshine in the next few days but to be honest I prefer these calm but dull conditions to the violent winds we experienced earlier in December. No sign of proper winter weather in the next couple of weeks really, but the models are far from perfect and they can change their minds overnight sometimes so it's much too soon to rule out seeing any snow in January.....
  22. In our 'hunt for cold' it's a bit disheartening to see that the entire UK currently enjoys the highest surface level temperatures anywhere in the world above the 50th parallel..... ...by some margin! We have the highest hill to climb of any country in the northern hemisphere when it comes to experiencing cold weather in the winter so it's no wonder we all get excited when there's any prospect of snow. Let's hope we all get what we wish for in the New Year!
  23. If they're the names of the NW seven dwarves then it's bound to be Snow White everywhere! Here's hoping! At least we can expect some settled weather over the next few days into the New Year according to current output. That's got to be better than a raging Atlantic with storms, gales and pouring rain.
  24. I knew that, John. Just my attempt at Christmas cracker humour. Ho Ho!? We all know the squirrel is safe! Happy Christmas to you and thanks for your own grounded and knowledgeable posts as ever.