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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Forgive my use of a highly non-technical term - it just seemed appropriate at the time ! It's a pity that the ECM gif was not working properly because it showed the low pressure system moving strongly south-east and pushing the high pressure in front of it. Admittedly by the 7th the ECM still has high pressure in charge but it's already moving away. If the ECM went out further than +240 I am sure it would have shown the low pressure dominating by the 8th or 9th. I have attempted to post the gif again here: I think it works if you click on it. The GFS never let the high build in strongly in the first place, so it was only the GEM from this mornings output which seemed to plant the high pressure firmly over us and build against the Atlantic lows. Of course, we are talking about a period which is still 10 days away and things are already moving along - a different evolution will no doubt be the reality.
  2. ECM and GFS currently agree on an arm of the Azores high pressure extending across the UK by 4th May only to be shunted out of the way somewhat by the 7th or 8th by low pressure arriving from Greenland.... ECM GFS GEM, on the other hand, sees the Azores high being made of stronger stuff and holding the low pressure off to the west... GEM. (Edit: ECM gif not working, apparently....)
  3. Sleet or even snow for central and southern England on Monday according to the Arpege..!
  4. ECM, GFS and GEM currently in broad agreement for higher pressure to be building towards the UK by May 4th bringing a continental influence to our weather.... ECM GFS GEM. Could be a nice start to May after all. But can we sustain this pattern or even improve upon it over the next few days? Would be great if those glorious charts from Frosty and Summer Sun above came about!
  5. Although the CFS longer term output can be regarded as crude at best, and not much more than pure guesswork at worst, out of interest I have looked at the CFS output through May and it's not all bad news: 1st May 5th May 9th May 13th May 17th May 21st May 25th May 29th May This sequence indicates that there is hope for a warmer, more settled spell mid-month but there is also a lot of influence from North Atlantic low pressure systems moving in from time to time. It may be a waste of time making plans based on this output but it will be interesting to see how close the reality is, or how badly this model gets it wrong, perhaps? The U.K. weather remains as unpredictable as ever, so we will probably see a completely different situation evolving by the end of May.....
  6. Oh dear. First four days of May and the U.K. is swallowed by a rabbit hole..... Not a pretty sight if you're looking for settled weather but once it moves away east it might allow something more summery to develop from the south west - worth watching anyway.
  7. Very interesting - especially the Seasonal Cycle graph which is one of the clearest statistical demonstrations of the warming atmosphere I have ever seen. It would be quite ironic if the effects of melting sea ice on the Atlantic circulation brought colder conditions to Northern Europe while most other parts of the world continue to warm up.
  8. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    After a very unpromising start this morning with overnight rain and persistent low cloud, the sun broke through at around 11.00am and we ended up with a very respectable high of 17.5C and mostly sunny. The gloss was taken off, though, by strong, gusty winds which were gale force at times. Not sure what caused the unexpected windy conditions but perhaps that's what blew the clouds away! I'm hoping the wind will drop tomorrow and we still get some of this April sunshine, but the forecast high is only 13C here which will be very disappointing if that's all we can manage. Still, at least it is dry!
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    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    There's me thinking Spring was upon us, and then we get a night like last night...... Please - no more! Strong gusty winds and heavy rain battering the windows kept me awake like a winter storm - and if it was up to me it would have had its own name (not one I can print though). The national forecasters were happy to describe these conditions as 'windy' and 'patchy rain' but they should have been here, that's all I'm saying. Rain and wind have eased up now but no sign of the sun hereabouts. Just hoping we will get the opportunity to dry out on Thursday and Friday before it all goes downhill again.
  10. The GFS shows the Jetstream continuing to target the UK through late April and early May and until we can see this move further north the weather is likely to remain influenced by the Atlantic and therefore mainly unsettled, and probably cool or average temperatures at best: Disclaimer: this is the gospel according to the GFS and is not written in stone!
  11. If anybody ever asks me to explain what a 'Spanish plume' is, I'm going to show them this image!
  12. A promising sequence from UKMO between +96 and +144 hr showing the Azores high linking hands with the Euro high.... 19/04 20/04 21/04 This could keep the Atlantic at bay bringing about another settled spell for a few more days and keep most of us in drier, warmer conditions. I'm hoping it works out that way....
  13. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    You could always get a job with the Pembrokeshire Tourist Office - they'd definitely love you! We've had a pretty good week - although cloudy at times it's been more or less dry and the sun has brought the wild flowers out along all the lanes. Today is probably the best day yet and it really looks like Spring has sprung at last. I will never tire of the way the landscape seems to change almost overnight when the warm air arrives and the trees start to get their leaves back. The south east is promised temperatures between 20C and 24C next week whilst we will probably peak at 17C if we're lucky, but that's good enough for me if the sun's out!
  14. Some of the experienced posters in here have been prepared to comment on the weather we might expect in June based on a few warm days in April whereas I am not very confident of my interpretation of the current model output even at just +216 hours. Oh, heck - I'll have a go anyway....we all have to start somewhere! ECM and JMA seem to be almost on the same page with a more settled outlook around the 22/23 April: GFS and GEM however see things differently and are proposing more of an Atlantic influence bringing unsettled and cooler weather back again: So it does appear that the models can't agree yet on how the month will progress. Perhaps things will stay warm and settled for many of us which would be a very welcome change from the cold early Spring we have endured this year.
  15. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    A little bit of rain is likely but the wind has dropped considerably so that's good! We have some annoying showers this morning and heavy overcast skies but this is forecast to move away by midday. Sunday looks like being the best day with no rain and quite sunny so double digit temperatures will feel quite pleasant in the sun. If you haven't already been to see them don't miss a walk on the beach at Poppit Sands or Newport Sands - low tides will be early morning or late evening but there's enough beach to enjoy even at high tides. The weather is forecast to improve over the next week so I'm hoping fo some proper Sping-like days in mid-April. Enjoy your visit!
  16. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    At last it begins to feel like Spring in Pembrokeshire! The sun was out yesterday and no rain now for over twenty four hours . . It might seem like this is a very small matter to celebrate but if you had been here a few days ago with the ground unable to take any more rain and water flowing off the fields into the roads you might have been tempted to start building an ark..... The only thing we need to dispense with now is the unnecessarily persistent wind which has been keeping temperatures down for, well, weeks really. The forecast over the next few days is quite promising with lighter winds and a promise of double digit temperatures returning. No more snow for me, please - it's simply not welcome anymore at this time of year.
  17. To be fair, things improved during the day and we ended up with a bright, sunny Spring-like day here, but we still only managed to get to 7.0C - it really felt cold unless you could get out of the breeze. In sheltered spots, though, you could definitely feel the strength of the sun and if we can only lose the cold air which all over us at the moment then Spring can really get going. But if things haven't improved by the end of April, Easyjet will have to find me a cheap seat to Spain for a week!
  18. I enjoy cold and snowy weather as much as anyone - as long as it's in December, January or February.. I can't understand any enthusiasm for cold weather to persist into April and I have no desire to see snow at this time of year. What I want to see now is bright, warm sunny days with temperatures rising into double figures. Also, let's see the rainfall levels going down a bit and the Jetstream moving above northern Scotland again. Summer in the UK is all too short as it is and it would nice to have some warm settled weather to look forward to - October will be round again before you know it. Sadly, the trend is for the UK to remain on the cold side of the jet well into April so there's not much chance of getting a heatwave anytime soon.... OK - that's my moan over. It's 4.3C outside and steady drizzle at the moment, so things can only get better, right? edit - just gone down to 4.1C so things are getting worse.
  19. Sky Full

    Premier League Discussion

    We've gotta win this one - there's some much tougher games coming up and we need all the points at this stage... COYS!
  20. Don't know what the verification stats are for the good old GUT model, but more often than not it tends to show us what we want to see. In the meantime the ECM is showing a cold incursion at +216 which could deliver the goods....?
  21. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    OMG! Those really are epic drifts - there's nothing like that round here.
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    2018 Winters Last Gasp 08.JPG

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    2018 Winters Last Gasp 07.JPG

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    2018 Winters Last Gasp 06.JPG

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    2018 Winters Last Gasp 04.JPG