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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Another very wet, windy, miserable morning here today. Don't know how many days we have like this so far this winter but it's time for a change. Whatever the SSW brings for us, be it cold and snowy or mild and fine, I just hope it quietens down the Atlantic for a couple of weeks and allows the ground dry out for while. Everything is soaked and the roads are awash. Enough is enough I say!!
  2. For several days now the models have indicated that the SSW might begin to affect UK weather patterns by around the 23rd February. Here are the charts for +216h (23/02) as of this morning: ECM GFS GEM JMA. . Now, correct me if I am wrong, but this looks like four very different solutions in nine days time although the JMA and ECM do have some agreement. Unfortunately the UKMO does not go out this far so we can't use it to try and get some additional guidance. I just don't understand how we can know which of these charts is the correct one, or if all of them are wrong at this distance. Just because one might show the conditions we want to verify does not mean that is the correct prediction. All the charts imply that cold conditions are likely but there is enough disagreement to suggest it could still go either way. Whatever conditions I might wish for in late February, I am sitting on the fence until all the charts start to converge which might be a few days away yet.
  3. Don't worry - our time will come... The models are only showing easterly solutions into far FI at the moment but once the Atlantic gets its act together again (probably late March!) then we will see fronts banging into the (by that time) bitterly cold air anchored over the UK, and Wales and the West Country will be in the firing line for some fun and games!
  4. All the charts I have been watching have indicated that the 21st to 23rd February is likely to be the start of any swing to colder conditions following the SSW. However, there is still some disagreement about the way things will pan out as these +216h 850hpa temp anomaly charts imply: ECM Is now similar to.... GEM But quite different from...... GFS. With respect to the placement of the coldest uppers, ECM and GEM favour Northern Europe and the U.K., but GFS says central and Southern Europe only at this date. I think it will take a few more days before there is any certainty about the extent and duration of any cold conditions brought about by the recent stratospheric turmoil. Could still go either way, I feel, although the chances of a memorable cold spell are increasing daily now.
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Many parts of Wales in the firing line for possible snow on the following days in the coming week: Sunday: Tuesday Wednesday Thursday This does not include random wintry showers almost anywhere. The charts show just a probability at this stage - not definite yet by any means - but the winter of 2017/18 hasn't been uneventful for Wales and continues to deliver some interest this week. Of course there is the longer term prospect of even more severe conditions later in the month but this still has to be verified and I will wait until we are within 24/48 hours of the events before getting too excited. Right now we are back to moderate to heavy driving rain in quite strong westerly winds - again - and I will be happy when this eases up!
  6. Further to my last post, not wishing to be taken for a scurrilous ramper, I would add that we currently have nothing like the extent or depth of low uppers over Europe which were evident in 1962/3 and which contributed to the record low temperatures that year. There is therefore no chance of similarly arctic conditions developing on this occasion. And I am not related to Michael Fish, either.....
  7. I think it's reasonable to say that there are considerable similarities between these two February charts which are only a couple of days apart: ECM. GFS and this one too: Just check out the date of that last chart That's just a bit too close for comfort! Not saying the Thames will freeze over or anything, but if the balls all end up in the right pockets we will certainly need to dig out those thermals....
  8. Wow! We have had nearly all the big hitters on here today each with very interesting, educational and at times exciting posts regarding the predicted SSW and the consequences for the UK weather towards the meteorological end of this winter. We are very lucky to have access to so many knowledgeable opinions and analyses even if they don't always draw the same conclusions from the model output. It's fascinating to watch it unfold to say the least. The last few days on the MOD thread could easily form the basis of an Oscar winning big budget disaster movie - you can imagine the title: "Avengers - The Never Ending Winter", or "SSW - Vortex Terminator". I'm sure you could come up with better suggestions.... Anyway, in a genuinely affectionate way, I suggest Tom Cruise to play 'Mission Possible' Steve Murr, Robert Downey Jr for 'Iron Man' Chionomaniac, Chris Hemsworth for 'Thor' Catacol, and Jennifer Lawrence plays 'Mystique' Tamara. Sir Patrick Stuart would be good in the role of 'The Prof' John Holmes. There's a massive cast of stars I haven't mentioned but all deserve an Award for their performances in here, in my opinion. Meanwhile, out at +240h towards the end of its current run (12Z), the GFS is creeping ever closer to verifying the wintry potential: ECM and GEM on the other hand have apparently not yet read the plot..... (all charts at +240h)
  9. Correction (unable to edit) - should of course have read: "....being drawn west from the continent".
  10. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Back to wet, dreary, cloudy conditions this morning. Ugh. Can't complain too much though as yesterday was a truly wintery snowy day with some sparkling sun too. Could do with more like that but at least we did get some proper snow this year.
  11. Everything about the GFS 0Z post 192h spells cold conditions for the UK: Blocking sets up over Scandinavia: Ever colder uppers being drawn east from the continent: Jet stream dives south over Africa: These are great charts for coldies! 21st to 23rd of February looks to be the period to watch. It's just a pity that the GFS generates so little confidence from long term posters on here. Does this mean we should ignore the GFS FI charts when they show these conditions? Of course not! PS. Damn predictive text - for 'coldies' I was offered 'collies' or 'oldies' - the predicted conditions would be good for one but not necessarily the other!!
  12. Sky Full

    Sunrise 07 Feb.JPG

    © Sky Full

  13. Sky Full

    Foel Cwmcerwyn from Ty Canol.JPG

    © Sky Full

  14. Sky Full

    Pembrokeshire morning.JPG

    © Sky Full

  15. Sky Full

    Presellis from Ty Canol.JPG

    © Sky Full

  16. Sky Full

    Ty Canol.JPG

    © Sky Full

  17. Sky Full

    Sunrise 07 Feb.JPG

    © Sky Full

  18. Sky Full

    Sunrise 07 Feb.JPG

    © Sky Full

  19. Would be OK by me if Wales gets buried!! Let me know if you think this is likely Sorry - not spying or anything - just having a look around!
  20. Sky Full

    EFL Cup And The Emirates FA Cup Discussion

    What a great score from the Swans! Only a few minutes left for another couple to go in....
  21. GFS 06Z keeps us mainly under colder uppers through to the end of the run and then tries to build a block towards Greenland, bringing even colder air back towards tthe UK..... Is this the beginning of something worth watching, as predicted by some of the really knowledgeable posters on here? I realise its way beyond the reliable timescale but there also signs in other long range models (CFS for one) that late February and early March will see Winter going out with a bang this year. It looks like a colder than average February anyway, and possibly less rainfall than usual EDIT: OOps - this seems to contradict the immediately preceding post from my much more knowledgeable mate, Stodge! If I am misunderstanding these charts I apologise for any misleading info posted.... Ignore me until I have been back and learned some more....
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Still slightly snowing here - it looks like we did quite well out of this really but I won't be needing the snow shovel on this occasion Now - when's that dangler going to set up. Well, we can all do with more, can't we? i suppose it's back to the models to see if we can hope for another shot before winter gives up....
  23. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I'm sure you'll get some too, later on. It's moving your way! At your elevation, should definitely be white!
  24. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The heaviest stuff appears to be headed in your direction but you can't tell what it will fall as until it gets there! Almost stopped here already - was good while it lasted but no blizzard! .
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