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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Well. That was a wet day. A very wet day, in fact. A day for staying inside, which is what I did! And we now have a windy week to look forward to - perhaps not so bad tomorrow as first suggested but from the middle of the week there is more stormy weather around. We will have to wait to see how this will affect Wales but its certainly turned autumnal in a hurry.
  2. Maximum winds gusts over the next 48 hours as predicted by three short term models: WRF ARPEGE ICON Plus wind gusts expected at around 2300 hrs tomorrow by the GFS 0.25: So, maybe 100kph/65kph gusts in western coastal areas between 2200 Monday and 0500 Tuesday before the storm moves away to the north east and weakens. Not particularly severe but still may be disruptive especially to Irish Sea ferries and people living by the coast. I would very much like to see one of Knockers detailed summaries of the next 48 hours......
  3. Sky Full

    Hurricane Helene

    ARPEGE and GFS both suggest wind gusts of 60mph to 75mph affecting coastal areas around the Irish Sea: . These are at sea level or 10m height. At my elevation and exposed as we are, I imagine gusts could exceed 75mph. Anglesey could be the worst affected area in Wales but Ireland is even more at risk because the storm could track further west than predicted. I intend to tether a couple of small trees I have, because I have lost young trees in similar conditions before.
  4. For me, the GEM has the best looking evolution from +96 to +240 - a very nice end to the month of September: . It will be very interesting to see if we can pull off another warm and settled spell before October - or even during October.
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Did you spot the 'deliberate' (not) mistake? Wind speeds would be in 'kph', not 'mph' - of course! Quite a difference.....
  6. Many thanks, Mike. Assuming that computer model upgrades are tweeks to existing software and not completely new programming, it just goes to show that a tiny adjustment in the input can result in quite significant differences to the output. I was more puzzled that these differences could occur in such a relatively short timescale, but i guess this storm really is that unpredictable.... I will just have to wait until Sunday to see whether my roof is at risk..... Not much I could do about it, anyway!
  7. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    A yellow 'strong wind' warning has been issued by the Met Office for the west on Monday and early Tuesday. Still trying to get an accurate idea of which areas will be worst affected by this storm but the following models think that the centre of the storm will track up the Irish sea, giving west Wales and eastern Ireland a battering: ICON: GFS ARPEGE I'm not saying that any of them are right, but on the basis of their predictions Pembrokeshire might see gusts between 80mph and 90mph, and gusts over Anglesey could approach 100mph. I suspect the storm may track further west and the winds in Wales will be less violent but we will probably not know for sure until as late as Sunday evening. If you live near the west coast it might be advisable to think about tying down the caravan, the dustbins, the patio furniture and the dog.....
  8. Further to Singularity's excellent post above, the GFS 0.25 is showing this for 0200hrs 18th September: Max Wind Gusts: The storm is shown tracking just off the west coast of Ireland, albeit giving that coast a battering. However, the GFS 0.25 Parallel is showing this just six hours later: Average Wind Speeds: Max Wind Gusts: The latter 2 charts indicate sustained winds in my location at up to 70mph and gusts at or over 90mph. At this time of year, these conditions might be quite, if not very, disruptive. It is becoming important to know which of these two closely related models might be right, or if it's neither. Not being knowledgeable about the GFS, can anyone explain to me why the parallel model could vary so much from its older sibling?
  9. Irrespective of whether we get a warmer period towards the end of the month, I am still waiting to see how far east the track of storm Helene will get, and what strength the winds will be. This is what is currently showing for the 18th September: ECM UKMO GFS GEM Helene is confidently shown to be situated in the western approaches and this will be of interest to anyone contemplating a ferry trip to or from Ireland or northern France around this time. My bet is that there will be cancelled services. Anyone who lives in 'the west' is also bound to be interested in the maximum wind gusts over this period as the trees still have all their leaves and if there is a last minute change in direction further east and/or a strengthening of the overall wind speeds, disruption on land could also become a factor. I'm hoping that the storm will weaken, of course. Bring on that 'Indian Summer' instead......
  10. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    After a crystal clear, starry sky last night we have a beautiful, sunny, calm start to the day - lovely misty autumnal sunrise and barely any breeze. Is this the calm before the storm...? We will know in the next few days whether we will have to brace for the first storm of the Autumn. At least we don't suffer the violent weather they are about to experience in North Carolina. That's good because I know my roof wouldn't be up to it.
  11. Oh dear. I don't like the look of that at all. Goodbye, Pembrokeshire, it's been nice knowing you..... ICON and GFS both tell a similar story for the 18th September.... Luckily, other models including UKMO do not agree with these predictions so there is a good chance things will not turn out quite like this but it certainly looks like an Atlantic storm is on the cards for some parts of the UK next week.
  12. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Well, precious little brightness today in the end but at least it has been dry. Almost entirely overcast all day with quite strong gusty winds but this was good weather for working outside, so no complaints. It does seem that the summer has left us exactly on time this year and Autumn is eager to flex its muscles. Many of the leaves are beginning to turn colour and it looks possible that we might be on the sharp end of the first Atlantic storm before the month is out. I guess the winter model output crew will soon be looking out for the first snow of winter!
  13. Not an unattractive end to the GFS between +240 and +384: Of course, this is a long way off in weather forecasting terms and it won't happen like this, will it, but it's got to be worth at least one sunglasses emoji from Frosty, surely?
  14. Yes, Ed, you are right of course, but it's also swinging wilding in the 10 - 15 day period at the moment. Mind you, so are all the others....
  15. Oops! Seems that was the 0Z..... The current run does this instead (same time frame): Spot the difference? Jet swings south, large Atlantic trough dominates the UK. Wet and windy everywhere. And cool. #*!!**# CFS!
  16. The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least! Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!
  17. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    After what can be properly described as a wet weekend with only brief drier interludes between the rain we might be able to enjoy a drier brighter day today. Might even get something useful done outside. On the down side, the rest of the week looks pretty poor even for mid September with cool temperatures and frequent rain. We have already had to put the heating on - only briefly (and I pretended it was just a pre-winter test....) but I don't think we will last until October before we have it on again. It was lovely to feel the warm air inside as our north facing rooms have been feeling distinctly cool lately!
  18. Whether things will end up exactly like this or not, the GFS and GEM both show some stormy conditions in the North Atlantic not far from the UK over this period. Could we be in for an early shock this Autumn? Let's hope the Jetstream eases north over the next few days and these conditions are delayed at least until October. Please. GFS GEM
  19. This is what the main four models are forecasting for +144 (next weekend)... 500s 850s UKMO ECM GFS GEM. . Despite some differences in the possible position and strength of the Atlantic troughs, there are many similarities between the models at this date - a clear temperature gradient south to north across the UK with the south east getting the best temperatures, as expected, and a strong west / south westerly flow from the Atlantic keeping the country in unsettled conditions for the weekend and probably beyond. The Jetstream does seem to weaken a little over the coming week but it's got the UK firmly in its sights. Any properly warm air is firmly bottled up in Southern Europe. There is a good word to describe these conditions. Autumnal.
  20. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    For a time in Carmarthen today it was very reminiscent of Spain in September - crystal clear blue sky with not a cloud to be seen, barely any breeze and warm sunshine. Everyone seemed very happy to be enjoying such a lovely day but were almost afraid to show it in case it all disappeared beneath cloud and rain again. However, I like the look of the charts at the moment which indicate that high pressure will build over Northern Europe and introduce an easterly airflow to the UK - that should bring Wales some more sunny, quite warm weather for a few days at least, before Autumn gets going properly..... Mind you, I don't believe anything the charts are showing, really. Do any of us....?
  21. An almost completely rain-free UK from dawn on bank holiday Monday until dawn on Tuesday, according to the ICON 7km:- Seems optimistic to me but if the country is this dry for the entire day this would have to make 2018 a contender for the best set of Spring and Summer bank holidays on record, surely?
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    In the last half an hour the rain has eased considerably and we now just have a few drizzly spots flying in the wind. The skies are also much lighter although still overcast - I think we might even see a bit of sun in the next hour or so. So the rain has not been as heavy or as long lasting as it could have been and hopefully we will have dry bank holiday tomorrow in west Wales.... That's good news for everyone especially the visiting tourists to the area - we want them go home with happy memories not damp ones!
  23. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Have awoken to the conditions which were expected today - heavy overcast, grey skies with steady moderate rainfall. It's also fairly blustery. The rain is expected to get heavier before easing up, hopefully by this afternoon, but rain does have a tendency to hang around here much longer than the charts indicate..... August has certainly been the least 'summery' month of the summer with much lower sunshine levels than July, lower temperatures and more rain. That has not made it less enjoyable, though, and the lower temperatures suited me and my garden much better than the heat of mid-summer. As mentioned by others, blackberries are now to be found everywhere in the hedgerows and some of them are huge! Not sure if this is a result of the summer conditions, or whether Mother Nature is getting ready for a bitter winter..... We shall see. At least the silage meadows are now growing fast and there should be no shortage of winter feed for Welsh hill farmers after all.
  24. Thanks for the excellent daily summaries, Knocker. Best forecasts around. I'm looking at nine hours of uninterrupted rain here on Sunday, by the look of it. Mustn't grumble, though.
  25. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Continuous, sometimes heavy, rain has been falling here since 12.00 noon, and even before that we had a light drizzle on and off for a couple of hours. The wind has strengthened and has been gusty most of the evening. The forecast is for this to continue through the night and maybe for tomorrow morning as well. No doubt about it, the land around here has been well and truly watered! Now would be the right time for August to bring sunshine and a little warmth back to west Wales for a week or two before the Autumn brings more unsettled weather in advance of the Winter season....
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