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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Autumn 2018

    Fantastic clip! I loved it. The contrails look like skyrockets! Only trouble is, you're now going to have to post one of these EVERY DAY please.....
  2. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    My goodness. What a wonderful summers day this is. Wall to wall sunshine and blue skies. 18C. Light(ish) breeze. What a pity we can't have a week of this before the cold, cloudy, wet and windy weather returns. However, looks like the weekend will bring more typical mid-Autumn conditions with plenty of wind and rainfall. By Sunday, today will already be a fading memory..... In the meantime I'm going to get outside for the rest of the day.....
  3. Those charts are quite graphic illustrations of the stormy conditions in parts of the Atlantic. The first chart reminds me of a yo-yo being rewound on its string straight back to the hand holding it. Where's the hand? Right over the UK! I suspect the intensity of that feature will have subsided quite a bit before (if?) it makes landfall in our neck of the woods though.
  4. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    It's a much better day here now, though, if a little chilly in the enthusiastic breeze. Lots of blue sky with light cumulus clouds. Speaking of Autumn colours.... .
  5. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Benign, settled and, dare I say it, seasonally above average temperatures on offer from the models for around the 13th October according to these charts: ECM +192 The continental air is relatively warm and dry with almost all of the European continent rain-free: GFS GEM agrees: Oh dear. JMA begs to differ: JMA: Interesting. I wonder who will get the closest to verifying......
  6. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Yes, it's pretty gloomy all right. Heavy overcast all day today with light rain at times, and definitely colder. The good thing though - it's pretty calm with only the lightest breeze. Over the weekend more rain is expected but maybe a bit drier next week. As you say, the colours seem to be reaching their best - our blueberry bushes are shining out in various shades of red, orange and russet and we have a young cherry tree which has managed to turn almost completely gold. Love the colours at this time of year and will be pleased if we can avoid stormy winds for another couple of weeks so we get to enjoy them for the longest.
  7. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    After a few days away we're back in beautiful Pembrokeshire again. Couldn't wait to get home. Today has started with a lovely still morning, pink tinged clouds as the sun rises, against an otherwise clear sky. Hope it stays clear like this but we are promised a generally cloudy week I believe. However, it looks like we will mainly stay dry this week with light winds until the weekend.
  8. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    2018 - will it be the year that delivered in every season? Exciting Winter weather, spectacular Summer and now looking like a decent Autumn. Now, can we hope to see some snow before Christmas? The CFS is working hard on this one. Bring it on! . . (Just for fun, obviously...)
  9. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Well, the clouds soon cleared this morning and the sun came out followed by plenty of fast moving fair weather cumulus making for a very interesting sky. We had a lovely walk through tree lined lanes drying quickly after the morning rain, enjoying the early Autumn colours and crossing a fast flowing river glittering in the sunlight and tumbling down a narrow gulley. This is what the Autumn should be like, and long may it last.
  10. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    This is what I have been waiting for: cross model agreement on a six-day (minimum) settled, dry and quite sunny spell of lovely early autumn weather. Out to +144 the prediction is unanimous: UKMO: ECM: GFS: GEM: ECM and UKMO probably showing the best outcome for the whole country but GFS and GEM both promise settled conditions for most. Even out at +192 the longer term outlook seems similar: ECM: GFS: GEM: If the ridge is allowed to drift eastwards a little we could see some quite warm temperatures as well but as things stand it's a cool but fairly quiet picture. Excellent outlook for early October, in my opinion - it will allow the trees to colour up and lose their leaves naturally before the more active late autumn weather arrives. There's plenty of work to do outside yet which requires dry weather. And there's plenty of time yet for rain, cold and, dare I say it, extreme weather to show its hand - Christmas is still three months away yet!
  11. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    100% heavy overcast this morning accompanied by steady moderate rain but almost no breeze at all! The strong winds predicted earlier in the week for today have disappeared from the charts for this area, thank goodness. Had enough of damaging gusts this week. Hoping that the skies will clear this afternoon to introduce the cooler, sunnier settled weather which we are predicted to enjoy next week. As far as I am concerned a sunny settled October would be perfect, allowing the trees to lose their leaves naturally and avoid going into the winter with saturated ground. November is the time for cold weather to appear and if we have to have them, winter storms to have their day.
  12. That captures the energy in the circulation very clearly. We also have showers and a stiff gusty breeze this morning but the afternoon is meant to be dry and sunnier. Plenty of rain expected over the weekend though, especially in central Wales and the Midlands it appears.
  13. Looks a bit breezy in your neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, Knocker, according to the ICON 0Z.... The short term models still disagree on the exact track and intensity of this depression. Will it be named Callum later today?
  14. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Not sorry to see the back of Bronagh..... Lovely start to the day here - bright sunshine and light winds. The return of the sun has made me realise that the windows need cleaning! Now, are we going to get any bother from storm Callum....
  15. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    ...lashing - yep, that's exactly the word I was looking for earlier! In fairness, the rain has eased up now, for the time being, but still have gusty winds shaking the trees. No power cut though, so not all bad. I'm really looking forward to next week now!
  16. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    This is going from bad to worse to terrible..... Torrential rain blown sideways in strong south-westerly gales hammering on the windows and violently shaking the trees. No whole trees down as far as I know but at least one large branch has fallen into the road. Charts indicate that 5:00pm will be the height of the wind speeds here but not sure how long the rain can keep this intensity up for. It's like sitting in a car-wash during the rinse cycle (without the rotating brushes, obviously!). Not going to step outside for the rest of the day.
  17. Sky Full

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Not in your area yet, but here it is varying between absolutely torrential downpours interspersed with periods of just heavy rain, and all driven sideways by gradually strengthening south-westerly gales. It looks to be continuing to move north-east through mid-Wales and then into the Midlands, so I hope we've taken the sting out of it before it reaches you.
  18. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The light steady rain from first thing this morning has gradually ratcheted up and up and we now have a significant, heavy and continuous downpour which is being blown from the south-west on an increasingly blustery wind. This will certainly refill any rivers which are still below normal flows. I believe these conditions are set to continue for a few hours yet. Just had a flicker on the lights, so maybe a power outage somewhere as well. However, I would still take this over the storm which was predicted and trust that we will not now see those damaging winds which were forecast for overnight - at least not this side of October anyway.
  19. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    As already stated by others, the GFS has considerably backed away from damaging winds over the next four days: Maximum gusts now limited to 50mph in most places; 70mph now only likely in the most exposed locations well above sea level. After this sequence conditions settle down as high pressure begins to influence our weather next week.
  20. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    It appears that the models are confident that a storm is going to develop but that this will occur either on Friday or on Sunday, not both. After the weekend the following week looks much more benign and settled: +144h +192h ECM GFS GEM UKMO Will this be sustained, or is it just a brief respite from an increasingly stormy Autumn? The divergence at +192 indicates that the models are not yet certain about the end of next week, as you would expect at this distance.
  21. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    If the conditions predicted by the ICON for early Friday morning actually verify, there will be a lot of homes in Wales without power by Friday night... Not all the models agree with the intensity of this storm but we are guaranteed some very strong winds at some point.
  22. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Current model output looks like this at +144hrs (25th September): UKMO ECM GFS GEM I've got no roof and the power's out, but at least the weather's nice!
  23. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    To get some idea of the windiness expected throughout the UK expected over the next few days, this is the ARPEGE showing the maximum wind gusts at sea level predicted for the next 72 hours.... Everywhere in the UK can expect gusts in excess of 60mph but that central belt of bright pink indicates gusts up to or exceeding 90mph... Brace yourselves...
  24. The first wind speed chart you posted shows sustained winds in my location up to 70mph+ - never mind the gusts. Some structural damage would be guaranteed. These then move east across central and southern England. I'm hoping this is going to downgrade substantially before the weekend.
  25. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Continuing windy here with worse to come according to the GFS and others. Heavy rain expected to accompany some strong winds tomorrow and Friday. There is the possibility of another storm on Sunday, which could affect the whole of the U.K. I will be glad to get this week over with - looking more settled and drier next week if the models are correct.
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