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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Would love to see the scene in your spectacular location but I don't envy you having to go outside this morning..... the wind must be absolutely biting up there. We had several hours of driving wind and snow yesterday evening and last night but not really much to show for it today although the fields are white. I reckon the wind blew all our snow out your way and probably didn't stop till it reached Ireland lol..
  2. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    It's showing -3.3c on the outside and the snow is coming in horizontally. I can see the birds still eating all the seeds and mealworms we put out earlier but they don't look happy. Hope they can find some shelter later on. We keep breaking the ice on the water bowls but it must be almost impossible for small birds and animals to find food and stay alive in these conditions. Even the sheep are huddled together under a tree looking very forlorn, but at least they've got woolly coats better than my duvet! Wondering how long this snow wil carry on for, now. If it goes on all night I'll not be going anywhere tomorrow.....
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Well, we had a few flakes blowing in the wind for most of the afternoon - I thought it was just Andy's leftovers TBH - but suddenly it's turned into a heavy fall of fine snow crystals which are travelling horizontally in the wind. It's blowing straight off flat surfaces like the roof, but collecting in all the recesses where you just know drifts could form if the snow was heavier, for longer. Funny thing is, this snow is not even registering on the radar yet - it must be even heavier stuff that's shown as approaching from the south over Swansea!! If the heavier stuff can reach us then I believe it will be game on for an exciting night of snow fall and - who knows what we'll find in the morning?? Looking at the radar and what's still to come, I think even the 'dry circle' might get pasted. Perhaps we can avoid a civil war with our friends in the east, after all.
  4. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Can't deny I'm disappointed that we are not going to a blizzard here on the Pembs/Carms border after all but I am excited for all you lucky people in the south east - it does look like Andy's apocalyptic warnings were justified, and it has to be said, several days ahead of the Met Office! Well done Andy! Let us know when you've dug yourself out!! It is quite amazing - and a little annoying - how the geography round here prevents snow reaching us from the east, but guarantees we get soaked with rain when the weather comes from any other direction!!! Think I might move to Cardiff.
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Sadly our snow's all been snatched by Southern Ireland..... Unless the storm decides to relocate further east by tomorrow, we are going to be dry! After all the build up and anticipation that will be a great big let-down. Still good for Cardiff and Newport by the looks of it though... Good luck to everyone in the east.....
  6. Very interesting progressions and especially the chart above which clearly shows the kink above the Bristol Channel in an otherwise quite circular and unblemished system! Fascinating how the atmosphere works - will we ever be able to model all its complexity....
  7. Looking at the detailed charts for the period out to about +65h there is a distinct wedge of less cold uppers shown forming across the SW and then making an arrowhead into south and west Wales. The difference in temperature of this air is quite marked compared to the surrounding air and is modelled to considerably restrict the amount of snow falling over central Wales over the next three days. This is the WRF but all high res models show this feature: Is this the result of a geographical feature (Bristol channel, or Dartmoor perhaps?) or is it simply the dynamics of the low pressure system? It stands out on the line of upper temperatures as they move north across the British Isles and it would be interesting to find out the reason for it.
  8. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Lovely crisp winters morning here; clear blue skies tinged with a few pink contrails; no wind, hard frost. Sun has just risen. No sign of snow here but I can see the snow clouds on the far eastern horizon - send some my way for later please!! Hope everyone gets a decent covering by tomorrow night but Cardiff / Newport and the valleys looks like the sweet spot ATM.
  9. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    That is a seriously weird aberration - looks like a massive heat source is keeping Carmarthenshire warmer than everywhere else! I know I turned my heating up but it wouldn't have made THAT much difference! If that doesn't change it could turn our snow to rain far too early, or leave us dry. only made it down to -5.9C here last night - others places much colder - but tonight will be colder still. Wild birds are hit hard by this weather - if you have the means to do it don't forget to put out some food for them.
  10. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The snow is coming to Wales folks, looks like we're all going to get some, and some on here could get buried! Before that, though, the temperatures are plummeting here - it's gone from -3.0C to -3.6C in the last half an hour so I reckon we could get down to -5.0C or lower tonight. That's bitter cold (although they've got -20.0C in St Petersburg so I'm not complaining!). If you've got any exposed pipes or tanks in the loft it's a good idea to leave the hatch open tonight so some heat from the house keeps the pipes from freezing. We should see who can record the lowest temperature over the next two days - bound to be some records broken I reckon.
  11. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Don't know about a 'beast' from the east... This looks more like a PUPPY from the east to me: Lets just hope it's bite is worse than its bark....! If it's snowing on Thursday night when I go to bed, there's gonna be a problem 'cos I might have to stay up all night to makes sure it carries on till Friday morning!! very very cold here now - had to go and wrap up the outside water tap 'cos I think everything outside is going to FREEZE SOLID tonight!
  12. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Was hammering down in Cardigan earlier but now back in Crymych it's dried up and the sun is coming out!! Only really settled on the hills today and now it's +0.8C so what we have had is going to fade away - must wait until Thursday now!!
  13. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    ITS OFFICIAL - snow now falling here. It's was very light but getting heavier as I write. Perhaps we will get a covering out of this. Is this the supporting act before the main event on Thursday? Wales to be pasted White by Saturday?
  14. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The shepherds around here are all properly panicking, I can tell you!
  15. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I hope you realise how much we all rely on you to get the most grounded and sensible forecasts, Andy? Nobody does it better! Keep up he good work and you will be rewarded with a blizzard but snow will only get up to the window sills - you will still be able to see out! I managed to get snow shovel from Wickes yesterday and a couple of battery operated lanterns - well, you can't take any chances, right? Just looked out the window and the sky is on fire suddenly - must go and take a picture!
  16. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    OMG - not the M4 to London and in a blizzard! Probably best if you set out tomorrow and stay a few extra days - don't use that road in heavy snow.
  17. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Great to hear from all you guys with snow already - that's seems earlier than originally forecast? Nothing here yet but according to the charts we'll get ours later.... . Had to keep the heating on all last night - outside temperature this morning at 6.00am was -3.2c - I can't remember seeing that before. I hope the car will start - it's a bit reluctant when the temperature is 0c so I might have to plead with it today! It's very cloudy today so maybe some white stuff will arrive here later on. The apps I use all disagree with each other about the next few days - according to which one you look at we can expect:. a) no snow; b) light snow;. c) moderate snow;. d). heavy snow (this is the right one, yes?);. ice and rain (what's that?);. And finally, just rain. I can only hope that we get a proper dumping on at least one day this week so I can take some photos. A blizzard would be very nice, thanks Derek!
  18. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Calm down, calm down....No need to shout - we're all in the same room! Can't believe Cardiff is off the warning though - this morning it was looking to get more snow than almost anywhere else. Where's it all going??? Maybe Cardigan?
  19. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I am rapidly going off this weather watching lark. The best easterly sourced frigid air for perhaps 20 years or more and every time I look at the forecasts now it's turning more and more to rain here. I can't believe it. Who's stolen all my snow? If we don't get a good few inches of snow by the weekend I am writing a letter of complaint to the MetOffice - I want a good reason why they can't spare me a few hours of snow which lies around for a few days, not just a few hours. I pay my taxes and I want more than just rain, thank you very much.
  20. Just looking ahead to the extreme limits of the normally 'reliable' timeframe, there are some distinct disagreements between the models as to the position on the 4th March: 500s 850s ECM GFS GEM UKMO. . However, they all agree that most of the UK remains on the cold side of the border between the frigid Siberian air and the not-so-cold European / Mediterranean air, with Atlantic depressions forming a queue to get in. All these solutions could lead to further cold incursions as we head into March though, so as winter goes into extra time a couple of late arctic goals could still be scored. In the meantime we have some very interesting days ahead as the battle between Siberia and the Atlantic takes place over the southern UK.
  21. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    OH NO! Not a bungalow, is it? Too bad, Andy - when the snow reaches above your windows you won't be able to get out!! You better start digging on Thursday and don't stop until Friday afternoon.
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Wales has its very own block of -16 uppers on Thursday according to the GEM!! Whatever the actual upper temperatures fall to, it seems that Wales, and South Wales in particular, can confidently expect some heavy snow on Thursday and Friday. Hope you got your portable gas heater, Andy!
  23. Far and away the best explanation I have ever read on the way our favourite weather models calculate the predictions which leave us elated or deflated depending on the outcomes. Very interesting reading especially the issues surrounding the cost of extra computing power v the value of improved equations. Thank you.
  24. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    It's looking beeootiful outside now - bright sunshine and blue skies - lovely and dry too! Then I took a step outside the door - and its bloody cold, bitter isn't exaggerating it! Got to walk the dog - I think my hands'll drop off! If does show 3.1C on the thermometer but it feels much colder in the wind. This is only Sunday - the temperatures are going to fall every day for the next five days at least - and then we get snow! What a week to look forward to!
  25. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Wow! What a story! And what a great picture! I love Manorbier and it's not difficult to imagine that little village being cut off in heavy snow but it must have been fun for you at the time. I grew up in a flat with no heating and with those metal framed windows which never closed properly - in freezing weather we would get frost patterns on the inside of the glass and you could sometimes see your breath in the air! Didn't seem strange to us in those days though. Somehow I doubt that the weather is going to be so severe in our part of the world this time (apart from some very low temperatures) but there could well be some localised road closures if we get any drifting snow. It's very tense in the MAD thread as they try to work out what exactly will happen - don't know why they can't just wait for things to happen...
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