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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    GFS and ECM now broadly in agreement predicting low pressure over the UK at +168 (March 22) bringing colder conditions for all: ECM: GFS: Yesterday the GFS was suggesting that the Azores high would be more dominant but backtracking today. Will it swing the other way again by tomorrow?? Perhaps March will have a kick in its tail after all....
  2. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    Your ability to explain the models in this way is a great help to those like me who are still learning to interpret the output. To my own inexperienced eye, though, the ECM looks more likely to get it right unfortunately. I will be happy if the Azores high is able to establish itself more in our area by the end of the month to give Spring a kick up the xxxx in my part of the world. It's been far too damp and cloudy up to now.
  3. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    GFS shows an improving situation at +192 with high pressure building towards the UK: ECM has very different ideas though: Just 8 days away and yet quite a contrast between the two models. Which one to believe? Perhaps they are both wrong - seems the most likely to me!
  4. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    GFS 12z still trying to slow down the new growth in my garden by bringing on a cold snap in two weeks time. Luckily the chances of this prediction verifying even close to this are probably less than 10% and ironically the very fact that the GFS says it could happen almost certainly rule it out completely, based on the disappointing degree of inaccuracy at this time scale shown during the last three months. Can't be too harsh, though, as it's pretty much impossible to forecast the weather in this country beyond five days, isn't it?
  5. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

    How far ahead does FI start these days? GFS at +120 seems reasonably promising with high pressure building in: At +144 it's still looking quite settled even if sunshine is in short supply: But at +240 things are predicted to go downhill... But perhaps this is pure fantasy and will not materialise...... By this time of the month I would prefer to see temperatures rising and sunshine levels improving so I'm hoping that the GFS has a rethink about this particular prediction.....
  6. Just spent ten minutes deleting some really lovely snow laden charts taken from various models from November through to the end of January. What a pity - so much promise but so little delivery. Still, the way I see it is that we have had no farms cut off by rising floodwaters, no towns and city centres flooded for days by overtopping rivers, no bridges washed away, no coastal rail lines cut by storm surges and very few power outages. From this perspective the winter has been memorable for me, at least. And all is not yet lost by a long way. The CFS for one is showing that the cold could continue right through to the end of February. These images are only 14 days away.... Now this is way out beyond FI even so little chance of accuracy but the CFS is a serious computer model so these predictions are at least possible, and may even be more likely than not. All to play for then in the second half of February? I'm not giving up yet.
  7. GFS 06z now showing a cold easterly setting in as early as +48hrs and continuing almost unbroken from the same cold direction until the 18th - well into FI. Getting even colder towards the middle of the month.... This is, I believe, what is commonly referred to as 'getting the cold in'. Whatever is being modelled today, it Is practically a certainty that most of the U.K. will see snow in some form or another over the next 2 weeks. Can we begin to hope that something like the situation shown on the 17th February will bring some significant snow to many places?
  8. ECM and GFS look broadly similar at +168hrs.... After that, the CFS suggests that the cold conditions to be sustained for more than a week at least.... I know how little reliance can be placed on these images but it does show what could happen and we are in the coldest phase of winter so I think they are worth posting? I am intrigued to see that cold pool in mid-Europe being drawn right over the top of us..... The next few days will be very interesting as this could be the start of a very memorable winter spell during which almost all of the U.K might see some notable snow.
  9. I present the GEM, ECM, and GFS at +144 hrs as currently showing: All looking to be in agreement and quite promising especially when taking into account the later frames. The direction of the airflow could at last bring some interest for my location. However, havnt we been here several times before already this winter? This is still SIX DAYS away. Isn't it more likely that the whole set-up will have shifted about 1000 miles east of the position shown by the time we get to +144 hrs? Which leaves the high pressure back over the UK and no N or NW but a gentle circular rotation which has been the form horse pretty much since the beginning of December. I would love to be wrong but I am trying to second guess the models which this year seem bent on giving us plenty to talk about then whipping it away again with just a few days to go.....
  10. Just popped out for the day and came home to find....a new thread and 14 new pages of model discussion. I thought, were they all just waiting for me to leave the room before having a proper chat? That's a bit hurtful. And then I saw this: j and this: And I thought maybe that's the reason.... But then I saw this: and this and I had to go and have strong drink. So I now know what the fuss is all about but do you have any idea how long it's going to take me to read all those new pages? I'll be up half the night and I hope you're all satisfied.
  11. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Very dull this morning - cold with low cloud and almost no movement in the air. Quite a contrast from yesterday but at least it's dry and no fog! Looks like we'll keep these conditions until Sunday when the cold front moves through and introduces a brief northerly. Sadly any chance of snow now pushed well into the second week of January but with any luck this might change within the next few days.
  12. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Absolutely stunning day today. Sparkling sunshine all day, max 7C, min 3C, slight iciness on the roads where the sun hasn't reached this morning. If it stayed like this until March I wouldn't complain.
  13. We can now be confident of seeing a spell of colder but still quite settled weather from News Years day as shown by the GFS: and for anyone who feels disappointed that this is not quite as severe or long lasting as the models were predicting a week ago, take a look at what was awaiting us at this time last year..... Personally, I would take the current conditions over those we were suffering last January - we are actually very lucky this year to have avoided all those Atlantic storms (although I suppose there's still time....!).
  14. Well the models are all in general agreement for a cold interlude at +144 and at least that's almost in the reliable frame? ECM: GFS: GEM: UKMO: Now I have heard it said that you need to get the cold in first before anything else can happen. Don't know where I read that, as it happens, but it makes sense to me.....
  15. These charts looked just about perfect to round off a happy day..... . . Chances of them verifying? Well, who cares really - they just gave me the chance of some sweet dreams. Same to all of you.....
  16. Crikey! Looks like Turkey's going into the freezer. We only just defrosted ours.....
  17. In addition to the promising pressure patterns being developed by the models in the new year outlook, it seems that the GFS also has the Jetstream finally trending to the south of the UK at the end of the run. If this comes off I believe we can genuinely hope for much colder air to be available in January. The actual shape of things will not be exactly like this in 10 days, of course, but at least the door to some much colder winter weather is being opened again. I would also like add my best wishes to everyone for a very Cherry Mistmas (oops - too early for the sherry) and a Happy New Thread to all in 2017. I am banking on the new thread being full of SNOW.
  18. Yes, that does seem weird. Or has Old Met Man re-registered as Old MET Man? I don't see the point of copying such a distinctive monicker....
  19. Just wait until decreasing salinity in the Arctic sea caused by fresh water runoff from the melting Greenland icecap reaches the point where the Gulf Stream shuts down. Then we'll see what winter at this latitude is like for everyone else and I'm not sure we're going to like it much. I will probably not be around long enough see it myself though.
  20. Now that's what I call proper moan! Amen to that.
  21. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The lack of proper winter cold is always disappointing but I am trying not to complain too much because I remember last year. By now, Eglyswrw near Crymych was already 54 days into their nearly record breaking spell of continuous daily rainfall and that's only 7 miles from us. They still had another 30 days of daily rainfall to go. The water was continuously cascading down the lane outside my house and we had to use duck boards to get to the car. I don't want a repeat of that and I will take the current settled conditions even if that means no cold temperatures. The fact that we have had only one Atlantic storm so far must also be a great relief to the coastal towns and villages who were battered last winter but I feel concern for the Scottish isles who are going to be hit by Barbara this weekend.
  22. Apologies - just showing my ignorance. However, it does seem to me that we are getting a lot of high pressure influence this winter which is usually what we are trying to find in the summer months?
  23. Fascinating to see how all three main models draw chilly air right down into the eastern Mediterranean - even Cyprus will be cold - but we can expect air brought to us from the northern Sahara. . . . I would love to count how many times this pattern will develop between June and September in 2017 - about twice would be average!
  24. As one of only two posters who commented in this way (unless other posts were removed) I think this message is directed at me. There were only four posts relating to the quoted post which doesn't really amount to 'clogging up' the forum but in the past I have seen many many posts publicly thanking the four or five outstanding members whose contribution is acknowledged to be head and shoulders above every one else. I therefore didn't think it was inappropriate to make such a comment publicly given the quality of what was posted but I will refrain from doing so in the future. Back to the models: Both the GEM and the GFS are promoting a potentially quite violent storm for northern Scotland, unfortunately on Christmas Day. In in the days that follow, happily, the same models both agree on a more settled period leading up to the New Year. No snow for almost everyone in this short term outlook but at least the prospect of further damaging storms is also unlikely In the reliable timeframe. It is still quite possible that we will see some really cold air from Eastern Europe drawn our way in early January which has often been the best period for our winters to really get going.
  25. Sorry, ArHu3, no link. I just wanted to compare 10 day forecasts with reality and so saved the image from the 9th December. I imagine this exercise would show varying degrees of success depending on the time of year but I didnt think the GFS did too badly on this occasion. It might be different in another 10 days given the way the jetstream is getting more determined to target Western Europe.
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