Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?

Sky Full

Members
  • Content Count

    521
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Sky Full

    Forgettable years, weatherwise.

    I have been looking at the incidence of snowy weather in each decade from the 1940s to the present just to see how badly or otherwise we are really doing compared to years ago. This is a table showing the number and severity of snowy years in each decade from 1940 onwards (data courtesy of http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather ).... Number of years the UK had snow: Little Snow Average Snow Snowy Year Very Snowy Year Points Total 1930S 2 4 4 0 Points 2 8 12 0 22 1940S 4 1 4 1 (1946/47) Points 4 2 12 4 22 1950s 3 3 4 0 Points 3 6 12 0 21 1960s 3 4 2 1 (1962/62) Points 3 6 6 4 19 1970s 6 1 2 1 (1978/79) Points 6 2 6 4 18 1980s 4 4 2 0 Points 4 8 6 0 18 1990s 8 2 1 0 Points 8 4 3 0 15 2000s 6 4 0 0 Points 6 8 0 0 14 2010s 4 2 1 1 (2009/10) Points 4 4 3 4 15 (Points scored per year: Little Snow = 1pt, Average Snow = 2pt, Snowy Year = 3pt, Very Snowy Year = 4pt) On this basis it is clear that we have been getting progressively fewer snowy years in each decade and that the 2000s were easily the least snowy decade since 1930. However, the 2010s have already surpassed the 2000s for snow excluding this winter (which looks promising!). As we still have two more winters to go there is every chance that the 2010s will compare favourably with the best that the 1960s and 70s had to offer especially if this winter turns out to be ‘very snowy’! Anyway, its interesting to see how the climate appears to be affecting our winters in respect of snowfall….
  2. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Cold conditions for most of us now nailed on until the end of November and some will see snow - not a bad statement at this time of year and perhaps a good sign for the winter ahead! My attention is now focused on December 1st (which happens to be my birthday). Go back as far as you like but I can't remember a single year when snow fell at low levels in the south on this date. The charts are offering an outside chance that I could break this record at last: GFS ECM UKMO. (30 November) This is surely a great start to the cold season and could produce a much colder than average December. Are we about to enjoy an epic winter? All I know for sure is that if I spend any more time reading this thread and checking the charts I am going to need a new tablet for Christmas - the battery on this I-pad is not going to stand up to the abuse much longer...
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Could be very interesting in the Presellis if that comes off.... Will have to keep watching this!
  4. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Despite disappointing developments, this is where the main models say we will be by the 29th November (+144): ECM GFS UKMO GEM Not bad when you consider it is not yet winter proper..... and I wouldn't swap this outlook for the conditions we had on the same day last year: : So not too bad then, considering what we have endured in recent years .
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    About a week ago I posted that today was not looking a good day to be on the Rosslare ferry, based on the GFS charts that day. They certainly had the windy conditions well forecasted! We've taken a hammering here over the last two hours with strong gusts accompanied by heavy rain at times. I dont have a wind speed guage but local weather stations have reported 64mph gusts nearby. I can hear the wind doing its best to remove the slates from my roof but hopefully so far they all resisted heroically. Must start to slacken off soon but I think there is more to come for Anglesey and the north west. Can we hope for some less violent but more wintry weather over the coming few days??
  6. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    It's been very windy all night here and some heavy rain already this morning. I don't think we are in the direct firing line but I am still expecting some stormy conditions later. I hope we don't get too much rain though - seems to have been raining here now almost non stop since Sunday. Wouldn't it be nice to get some snow instead even if it doesn't settle!
  7. Sky Full

    UEFA Champions League

    If we can keep this standard up in Europe we could go all the way. Makes up for the hammer blow on Saturday but we can still come back and challenge for two major trophies. COYS!!
  8. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    GFS predicting the coldest upper air so far this Autumn to spread across the UK on Sunday bringing the possibility of wintry precipitation almost anywhere in the west.... Not bad at all for November and SO much better than last year and the year before at this time of year so even if it doesn't quite materialise like this there is much to be optimistic about. Dare we hope for even better charts in December? It's been a long time coming....
  9. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The charts for next Saturday from the main models show some diversity as you would expect at this distance: UKMO ECM GFS GEM The details will have to wait for later but I see a definite trend for the departing depression in the north east to draw colder air from the north west across the UK for the end of the month. Whether this will bring snow to some parts is still to be decided but at least we are going in the right direction for the start of winter and there are plenty of routes to proper cold weather available in later charts. Once we get that huge block established from the Azores to Greenland it's game on (it will happen, I can see it in the tea leaves....)!
  10. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The other day it was the 23rd November which looked stormy, but now the 24th looks worse... GFS, ECM, UKMO and GEM all have a deep depression somewhere near or right over the UK on the 24th: Whatever this might mean in terms of snow for some upland areas in Scotland this is one occasion when I am hoping for downgrades in the next few days. The GFS prediction in particular could bring damaging winds to many parts and if this is accompanied by heavy rain it will not be pleasant for those in the firing line. There is the possibility of a strong northerly airflow in the aftermath though, and I would encourage the models to work a bit harder on bringing this about if they want us to stay friends....
  11. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Big four all suggesting some wild north Atlantic weather at +144-150.... . . This might go one of two ways - either they all shift a little further south east in which case there's a lot of colder air around which could be drawn our way; or further north and we get mild, wet and very windy. Either way I'm glad I'm not booked on the Rosslare ferry on the 22nd....
  12. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Thanks for that MWB! Amazing what you can learn on this fantastic forum!
  13. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Yep - I always swear by those good old flokkunargluggi...
  14. Sky Full

    UEFA Champions League

    'Real Madrid's stuttering season sets up Tottenham for a memorable Champions League night at Wembley' (Evening Standard). Now is the time to show us what you can do, Spurs. A win at Wembley today will make up for the recent dismal performances against ManU and West Ham (well, it'll help us get over them anyway)..... Frankly, anything other than a win is unacceptable if we are to build on a reasonable start to the season (before last week that is). I don't even want to think about the consequences of losing. COYS!
  15. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    I was about to post the following charts when I saw the two posts above describing the marked difference between the ECM and the GFS in the 8 - 10 day period. Still, it doesn't hurt to repeat this message because it will be interesting to watch them develop and see which model gets nearest to the actual conditions..... . ECM. GFS +168 +192 +216 +240. . Best thing for me about both these sets of predictions is the lack of a raging Atlantic influence which should mean considerably less rain for western parts than has lately been the case.
  16. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    The three main models all expect colder upper air over the UK by November 5th - not sure how that will affect ground temperatures but it would make a change If we could manage a good old fashioned FROSTY bonfire night..... Any conditions which bring down the ground and sea temperatures in advance of winter are welcome as far as I am concerned.
  17. Sky Full

    Premier League Discussion

    ManU 1 - Spurs 0..... Very disappointed. Too early in the season to make any difference? I don't think so. Time will tell whether the loss of these three crucial points to one of their Premiership rivals will cost Spurs the chance of winning the Premiership title. In the meantime they have to find a way to score goals without Kane.
  18. Sky Full

    Premier League Discussion

    Spurs have arguably two of their most crucial matches back to back in the next few days - away to premiership rivals Man United on Saturday and European champions Real Madrid at home on Wednesday. If they can win both these matches they will silence all their critics but it's going to be a challenge. Even to draw against these two teams would be a historic result though, and would be another step on the road to at least one well deserved trophy this season. Wish I could be at Wembley on Wednesday....
  19. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Are there signs of the models getting closer to agreement for early November? ECM GFS GEM . Definitely looks colder for everyone in these charts - might be windy as well but the best thing about it is that it should put a stop to the incessant rain we've endured for the last six weeks in this part of the world. I'm fed up with soggy weather and a cold snap with crisp mornings is the perfect forecast at this time of year.
  20. Sky Full

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Hmmm. Seems a little busier in here than of late. I wonder why. Lets have a look and see.... And this is only November 2nd! Might need the winter woolies out for fireworks night. Hands up everyone who believes this is really going to happen. Only me then?
  21. Sky Full

    Autumn thoughts

    You were fortunate to see such a lovely dawn. It's been pretty much wet and overcast here in the mornings for days and days on end although in fairness, it turned into a very nice afternoon and even better evening yesterday - plenty of sunshine and light winds, very acceptable. Unfortunately, today it's back to the usual driving rain, gusty winds, low clouds and poor visibility which doesn't look likely to clear for most of the day - again. One nice afternoon and evening doesn't make up for the daily drenching we are getting but at least I don't have to water the garden..... i might have to Google 'how to build a dome' because I think that's what's needed over the house. That or an ark, maybe.
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    In fairness, it turned into a very nice afternoon and even better evening yesterday - plenty of sunshine and light winds, very acceptable. Unfortunately, today it's back to the usual driving rain, gusty winds, low clouds and poor visibility which doesn't look likely to clear for most of the day - again. One nice afternoon and evening doesn't make up for the daily drenching we are getting but at least I don't have to water the garden..... i might have to Google 'how to build a dome' because I think that's what's needed over the house. That or an ark, maybe.
  23. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Wet, wet, wet, wet, wet - no, not an unimaginatively named tribute band but an accurate description of this dreadful September so far in this neck of the woods. Already the wettest September for at least 10 years here and we still have 9 days to go.... Local flooding and swollen rivers not what you want to see at this time of year and especially not what you want to face when trying to work on a roof before the worst of the winter I can only hope that this is a statistical anomaly and not a trend for more rain and stormy weather this early in the autumn. Oh, for even one one week of crisp, dry and sunny weather - consider yourselves blessed if you have been lucky enough to enjoy these conditions over the last few weeks. Rant over. At least we haven't had an earthquake or a hurricane so my thoughts are with all those in Mexico and the Caribbean who have lost so much to natural distasters this month.
  24. Hi Frosty - keep the place warm for a few more days because things could change very suddenly at this time of year. These images from the GFS are 12 days away, admittedly, but go to show what could be in store before we even get to Winter..... Things may not turn out like this, of course... it could be better - or worse! Who knows with the British weather! Not too long to wait before things get more interesting again.....
  25. UKMO and ECM both have nothing sinister in the offing at +144, in fact both promise some benign conditions for most: ECM and GEM not wanting to be quite so optimistic but neither are they showing any imminent return of strong Atlantic weather: Little sign of an early descent into Autumn yet, and possibly a return of some welcome summery conditions for a time at least. Something of an improvement on the rest of August then, at least in my part of the world (but we can take it! )
×