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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. Just had the most intense hail shower I have ever experienced complete with fairly frequent and localised air to ground and air to air lightning with thunder. It had been a generally quiet morning with a small shower or two but the sky began to darken as the squall line moved in and then all hail broke loose! Covered the garden with white in a matter of minutes and continued for about ten minutes before losing intensity and turning to rain. The line appears to have moved north and east toward Newcastle Emlyn but I see that the Llyn Peninsula has also had some lightning this morning. Quite extraordinary to see but all is quiet again and the sun is coming out now! It is weather conditions like this that makes weather watching so interesting and even exciting for me from time to time. We really are lucky to have such a variable climate although sometimes I do wish it was a little less wet....
  2. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Just had the most intense hail shower I have ever experienced complete with fairly frequent and localised air to ground and air to air lightning with thunder. It had been a generally quiet morning with a small shower or two but the sky began to darken as the squall line moved in and then all hail broke loose! Covered the garden with white in a matter of minutes and continued for about ten minutes before losing intensity and turning to rain. The line appears to have moved north and east toward Newcastle Emlyn but I see that the Llyn Peninsula has also had some lightning this morning. Quite extraordinary to see but all is quiet again and the sun is coming out now! It is weather conditions like this that makes weather watching so interesting and even exciting for me from time to time. We really are lucky to have such a variable climate although sometimes I do wish it was a little less wet....
  3. This shows the progress of maximum gusts across the UK over the next 24 hours as depicted by ICON: From this it would appear that the worst affected areas will include most of Wales and the high ground of Cumbria and the Pennines. North West Scotland to suffer the highest wind speeds, though.
  4. I find it fascinating to watch the subtle differences between the models even at +72hrs - UKMO ECM GFS GEM There is no disguising the Atlantic depressions queueing up to affect our weather in the short term - all in agreement there - but the small differences between the models at this image date can lead to massive disagreement in terms of what they are predicting in 10 days time. It is certainly worth making calculated guesses (forecasts?) but in reality anything can happen post +72hrs.....
  5. Sky Full

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Don't beat about the bush.....give us a straight answer and say what you really think! As far as I am concerned I still hope that February can deliver some cold snowy weather for the far west because everyone else has had a bit (almost everyone...). Here's a promising start.... If nothing happens in February then we are probably done for until next December. We can always look forward to the spring now - longer days, stronger sunshine, birdsong and daffs popping up everywhere. Then there's the westerly gales, frequent showers, spells of heavy rain, late frosts biting the early buds.... Oh no, not the Spring again..
  6. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Much better here this morning - light breeze only, partly clear partly cloudy skies, dry at last! Maybe get some work done outside today!
  7. Sky Full

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    There is always eye candy to be drooled over if you need a lift. Take the CFSv2 in deep, dark FI (well, only mid February actually)..... . What a pity that this is truly a fantasy and will never verify. Or will it.... ?
  8. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Just driven back from London via the M4 - worst journey I ever made! Snow on the M25 and M4, then after the A34 it turned to heavy rain - and I mean heavy. Drove in heavy rain through Newport and Cardiff and then discovered the M4 is closed at Bridgend! Massive diversion, then finally back on the M4 but another accident we just missed at the next junction will be causing chaos by now. Almost couldn't see the road ahead through Port Talbot and then finally just began easing at Carmarthen. The lanes around here are running with torrents of water and the streams are all at capacity. Never seen it this wet. Anyone got any figures for the rainfall amounts over the last 12 hours for South Wales? There has got to have been some flooding today.
  9. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Another noisy, windy night - that's two interrupted nights this week now but at least no damage and no power cuts! Reading the south east thread makes me smile though - for once they get to experience weather conditions we get all the time - and they don't like it! Somewhat breezy out there but otherwise a nice morning now - dry and clear but much better than the heavy rain we had late yesterday. Maybe a couple of dry days ahead so that's good!
  10. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    According to the WFR the strongest wind gusts in west Wales will be between 11.00pm and 2.00am tonight: . Pembrokeshire and the south coast in the firing line there - gusts could easily reach 70mph or even 80mph on higher ground. May not get much sleep tonight
  11. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Had some heavy blustery showers today but only rain with a bit of hail thrown in.. Still not sure how we will be affected by this nasty little depression tomorrow night - to begin with it was going to be the far north that had the worst winds but the latest charts have the strongest gusts in the Irish Sea and Bristol Channel - very bad for the west coast of Wales at this rate. Can only hope it downgrades overnight or perhaps ends up much further south.... Have already tied down the garden furniture but can't do much about the roof...
  12. GFS 0.25 has the strongest gusts in the Bristol Channel and English Channel between 10.00pm tomorrow and 4.00am Thursday. i confess that I don't understand what it meant by 'storm motion' but these charts also seem to relate to wind speeds? If anyone can explain the difference I would be grateful!
  13. I think we might have been given a little more than 24 hours notice of the conditions being modelled for tomorrow.... Where did that come from?
  14. "Hello, officer? I'd like to report a missing polar vortex, please. No, haven't seen it for a few days now - most unusual at this time of year. No, it hasn't gone home to mother and it's not down the pub, either. Can you please send out a search party?" This is a seriously disrupted PV and it hasn't had its act together for most of the winter. You would think that we could expect something dramatic to occur in our part of the hemisphere while the PV was in such disarray, wouldn't you? There is still plenty of time to find out.....
  15. 75mph gusts widely inland across the midlands and 100+mph gusts on western coasts and high ground. There will be some roofless housing and power cuts unless this downgrades over the next few days. Would not want to be on the west coast next week but I don't think it will happen quite like this - bound to be further south by the time it reaches us.
  16. OMG! Black hole heads for Wales! Even after a downgrade, the GFS 06Z still predicts a nasty storm with wind gusts over 80 mph. Surely even the most ardent storm fan would not wish for these conditions over the UK - almost certain structural damage and injuries - or worse - would result.
  17. These are the main model ops charts at +120h from this morning, when the (slider/runner?) low is predicted to reach the UK: ECM UKMO GFS GEM There are sufficient differences in the shape and position of the low to suggest that no model has this correctly progged yet and I suspect there will be be a considerable merging between the four, with the extreme GFS being much modified towards the almost non existent GEM version..... More runs needed
  18. These images show what's being being modelled for just four days away: Now that's looking very interesting - especially western Scotland, most of Wales and - well, nowhere in Ireland is safe! I keep asking myself what could go wrong at this distance? Nothing, of course!
  19. OMG!!! Arctic blast on the way! Polar Vortex targets UK! UK colder than the North Pole! Britain to be buried in deepest snow for a generation! Shops say sales of snow shovels up by 500%! Councils say not enough grit available to keep major roads open! Airports facing three day closure! Snowmegeddon ahead!!! Sorry.....slipped into Daily Express mode there for a moment. I'm alright now. I've taken my pills. But - could all this happen in ten days time? It's not impossible.....
  20. Absolutely intriguing prospects being modelled today. At +192h the models all seem to want a slice of the PV to make its way over the UK, and there is no real organisation to the remaining vortex which appears to be in general disarray: ECM GFS GEM. . Even the UKMO at +144h is taking us in the same direction: . I can't remember seeing anything like this in the last couple of years at least (but appreciate someone out there might be able to prove me wrong?). I reckon we could see something much colder out of this before winter is over. Most of January and all of February to go yet - plenty of time for another arctic incursion to keep us all interested!
  21. There is currently quite a marked difference between the main models at +192h. ECM GFS GEM The UKMO of course only goes out to +144h and could back any of the above over the next couple of days: However, once again the smart money must be on a convergence between the first three as we get nearer this timeframe....
  22. An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man. The World Wide Web and ECM were yet to be invented And weather forecasts at the time were often quite demented! But there's no doubt, the records show, that winters then were colder And five foot drifts were commonplace - they came up to your shoulder! For years and years all we've had is windy wet and mild And although it's not all been bad we crave a winter wild.... Now... The models hint that Scandinavia could maintain a block To curb Atlantics bad behaviour - that would really rock! But... The GEM can't be trusted; the GFS is dire The ECM has often busted; the CFS? - a liar! So on UKMO we must rely but wait - is it cursed? More runs needed, standing by.... let's get the cold in first! Hope you all have a great weekend of model watching!
  23. Trying to keep my focus on the reasonably forecastable future and it is quite encouraging to see that the three models which allow us to see out to +168h still have a ridge of some sort in place over Scandiniavia or the Baltic generally: ECM GFS GEM The UKMO at +144h also shows that the ridge is still hanging about: UKMO. The ECM appears to be the weakest of the three but at least they all agree that the Atlantic could remain blocked out for another seven days, possibly longer. This might allow for subtle changes in the position of the ridge to allow colder air to move our way from time to time but at the very least it's keeping things on the cold, more settled side. This is much preferred, by me anyway, to windy, wet and/or stormy conditions which we have had enough of already this winter in these regions far to the west.....where dragons still exist by the way.
  24. Just to get away from the 'will it, won't it' easterly discussion for a second, the main models all suggest that the PV will remain split apart for the next week at least with little sign of getting particularly organised. This bodes well for continuing chances for variable conditions to happen in our part of the hemisphere some of which are likely to include cold incursions. This is far from the last chance saloon as far as winter weather is concerned for the UK this winter..... UKMO ECM GFS GEM Compare the above with 19 January 2017 and it's easy to see how much more interesting the current conditions are than last year (and previous years come to that). We are unlikely to get a 1962/63 type winter, that's clear, but it's so much better than the last three or four years so keep watching this space for exciting conditions yet to come!
  25. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Had great difficulty sleeping last night with wild gusts at times - sounded like the roof was coming off - but as far as I can see no damage this morning! At least the rain has stopped and it's a nice bright start although still very windy. Might be able to get outside for a while today! I've been reading the models thread for days and everyone is getting their hopes up for a cold easterly bringing snow etc but I have my doubts that all their wishes will come true. However, as Andy said earlier, if the cold air is introduced to the UK as a whole then we could get snow when the Atlantic wants to break in again. Something to watch for over the next ten days, perhaps?
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