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This is an entertaining progression from the GEM showing the gradual accumulation of snow over the UK during the next 10 days: Almost everywhere has some lying snow over the next 10 days……. Can’t remember the last time this was being predicted and certainly not before Christmas.

Pre-Christmas blizzard, anyone….? Courtesy of GFS +252h. But it really looks like this kind of setup will occur at some point…..

Now the GFS has 30cm of lying snow over most of central Wales by the 17th December…….!!! Is that what’s known in scientific circles as an ‘upgrade’? (EDIT. sorry, @andymusic I realised that was the same chart you posted earlier! Still, it’s worth seeing twice!)

The GFS currently shows this ‘lying snow depth’ chart for the 12 December - just seven days away: Hardly anywhere in Wales without snow in this chart. What’s even more surprising is that some snow is predicted to be lying on the ground at least until the 20th December which is the furthest reach of this model. This indicates below freezing temperatures even during the day. Who knows, this might even be a conservative outlook….🌨🌨️️

I see the MetOffice have issued a Yellow Snow warning for Scotland……. That’s nothing new - my parents were always warning me not to eat it!

Just for fun……GFS is currently modelling this snow depth chart for 13th December at midnight: Don’t get carried away yet - this is still 11 days away and bound to change. Could be worse, could be better…..we’ll soon find out!

Cold and dry with some fog - perfect for December! So I’m looking forward to that easterly which usually brings drier, calmer weather for me. I am fed up with these bands of intense rain followed by frequent hefty showers barrelling in off the Irish Sea!

It’s amazing that there have been 176 new posts in the MOD thread since I looked at it this morning. Anyone would think that it was due to snow everywhere in the UK tomorrow, but all the discussion relates to possible weather outcomes in 10 days or more. If we DO get any snow in December the site will probably overheat, and if we get a white Christmas….well, it’ll be a meltdown!

Plenty of flashes in the night sky to the north east - looks like a storm over Llanwrtyd maybe? What a funny old day.

Thought I would try and capture the squall as it passed over here but I cant upload the time-lapse right now due to slow internet speed… I’ll try to get it posted later if I can but the intensity of the rain was quite something for a few minutes. There was also a couple of local lightning strikes and loud thunder but it’s all passed away to the east now. This seems like pretty weird weather for late November and although rain is not surprising here, it is the current intensity and repetitive nature of the weather which is unusual.

Thunder and lightning over western Pembrokeshire headed this way accompanied by heavy rain……. A decent squall line formed and could be interesting.

Swirling rain and wind is right! Heavy rain and gusty winds here and there’s a squall line approaching which looks interesting…. After that I’m hoping it will calm down for the rest of the day with maybe some brightness later.

A date to remember - the first frost of the season this morning! Better late than never…..

IMG_0910.MOV A bright start then showery for a while this morning….

Cloudy and mild again this morning but it’s not raining! Currently there’s hardly any sign of widespread ground frost occurring in Wales right through to the end of November according to the computer models, which won’t please the diehard coldies but, this year at least, given the current cost of heating oil I’m not going to complain about mild conditions persisting right through till Christmas…...

Thanks! Last year I would have been a bit panicky with such heavy rain because the roof was leaking but I had it repaired this summer, at long last! Went up to the loft during the downpour and everything seems dry, but it was noisy! It’s definitely quieter now and I’m not sure whether the squall will still have its vigour when it reaches you but the wind could be strong so don’t leave anything lightweight outside ……. And yes it also feels mild here, too.

It’s really wild here right now - torrential rain and very gusty winds, almost stormy conditions. It’s making a heck of a racket on the windows and roof and I’m only hoping it’s going to pass over very quickly. The MetO warning for rain and high winds wasn’t wrong…..

Worth a look - the facts need restating as often as possible…. /climate-tipping-points-bypass-service-worker-/assets/tDNLgWfmHb/hero-desktop-2560x1440.jpg The tipping points that could trigger global climate catastrophe NEWS.SKY.COM The tipping points that could trigger global climate catastrophe

Another lovely start to the day here - sunny and calm with light clouds - and there is NO RAIN in the forecast for today! The hosepipe ban was lifted here about a week ago as the water in the Llys-y-Fran reservoir has reached normal levels for the time of year. I’m not at all surprised by that given the amount of rain we had last month. The local starling flock is growing and it looks like we might be treated to our own murmurations later in the season. I’ll try to get some photos if possible.

Same feature as earlier, now leaving the area to the west….. Lovely anvil shape.

“Heavy thundery showers” forecast for my location today…… …..and there is one! The view to the south west shows some convection going on - I might be lucky later perhaps..?

“Heavy thundery showers” for Wales, it says…… ….and here they are ! View to the south west this morning.

Comparing three of the models at +240h shows a surprising level of agreement given the ten day evolution from this morning: 500hPa 850hPa ECM GFS GEM. The uppers shown by the GEM over most of the UK are amazing for mid November and would provide some pretty mild temperatures. At least it could save people a lot of money by keeping central heating boilers off for longer than usual…?