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Sky Full

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Everything posted by Sky Full

  1. That captures the energy in the circulation very clearly. We also have showers and a stiff gusty breeze this morning but the afternoon is meant to be dry and sunnier. Plenty of rain expected over the weekend though, especially in central Wales and the Midlands it appears.
  2. Looks a bit breezy in your neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, Knocker, according to the ICON 0Z.... The short term models still disagree on the exact track and intensity of this depression. Will it be named Callum later today?
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Not sorry to see the back of Bronagh..... Lovely start to the day here - bright sunshine and light winds. The return of the sun has made me realise that the windows need cleaning! Now, are we going to get any bother from storm Callum....
  4. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    ...lashing - yep, that's exactly the word I was looking for earlier! In fairness, the rain has eased up now, for the time being, but still have gusty winds shaking the trees. No power cut though, so not all bad. I'm really looking forward to next week now!
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    This is going from bad to worse to terrible..... Torrential rain blown sideways in strong south-westerly gales hammering on the windows and violently shaking the trees. No whole trees down as far as I know but at least one large branch has fallen into the road. Charts indicate that 5:00pm will be the height of the wind speeds here but not sure how long the rain can keep this intensity up for. It's like sitting in a car-wash during the rinse cycle (without the rotating brushes, obviously!). Not going to step outside for the rest of the day.
  6. Sky Full

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Not in your area yet, but here it is varying between absolutely torrential downpours interspersed with periods of just heavy rain, and all driven sideways by gradually strengthening south-westerly gales. It looks to be continuing to move north-east through mid-Wales and then into the Midlands, so I hope we've taken the sting out of it before it reaches you.
  7. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The light steady rain from first thing this morning has gradually ratcheted up and up and we now have a significant, heavy and continuous downpour which is being blown from the south-west on an increasingly blustery wind. This will certainly refill any rivers which are still below normal flows. I believe these conditions are set to continue for a few hours yet. Just had a flicker on the lights, so maybe a power outage somewhere as well. However, I would still take this over the storm which was predicted and trust that we will not now see those damaging winds which were forecast for overnight - at least not this side of October anyway.
  8. As already stated by others, the GFS has considerably backed away from damaging winds over the next four days: Maximum gusts now limited to 50mph in most places; 70mph now only likely in the most exposed locations well above sea level. After this sequence conditions settle down as high pressure begins to influence our weather next week.
  9. It appears that the models are confident that a storm is going to develop but that this will occur either on Friday or on Sunday, not both. After the weekend the following week looks much more benign and settled: +144h +192h ECM GFS GEM UKMO Will this be sustained, or is it just a brief respite from an increasingly stormy Autumn? The divergence at +192 indicates that the models are not yet certain about the end of next week, as you would expect at this distance.
  10. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    If the conditions predicted by the ICON for early Friday morning actually verify, there will be a lot of homes in Wales without power by Friday night... Not all the models agree with the intensity of this storm but we are guaranteed some very strong winds at some point.
  11. Current model output looks like this at +144hrs (25th September): UKMO ECM GFS GEM I've got no roof and the power's out, but at least the weather's nice!
  12. To get some idea of the windiness expected throughout the UK expected over the next few days, this is the ARPEGE showing the maximum wind gusts at sea level predicted for the next 72 hours.... Everywhere in the UK can expect gusts in excess of 60mph but that central belt of bright pink indicates gusts up to or exceeding 90mph... Brace yourselves...
  13. The first wind speed chart you posted shows sustained winds in my location up to 70mph+ - never mind the gusts. Some structural damage would be guaranteed. These then move east across central and southern England. I'm hoping this is going to downgrade substantially before the weekend.
  14. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Continuing windy here with worse to come according to the GFS and others. Heavy rain expected to accompany some strong winds tomorrow and Friday. There is the possibility of another storm on Sunday, which could affect the whole of the U.K. I will be glad to get this week over with - looking more settled and drier next week if the models are correct.
  15. Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't...... The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....
  16. That would be great! If it's over your house, that means it's not over my house. So I'm crossing my fingers for you! I'm also hoping that the models are correct about the settled period which is predicted to follow next week, because you'll need a few days to get your roof repaired. You might want to think about hiring a generator because you probably won't have any power. We lost power for six days in October 1987 with part of the roof off and a tree resting on the car.
  17. What a windy week this is turning out to be... This is the progression of maximum wind gusts across the country according to the ICON for Thursday and Friday (+40 - +60hrs): I keep looking at this thinking 'That can't be right...' Would be very nasty in the North Sea for a time.
  18. Quite possibly the worst single weather event related disaster to affect Europe in living memory. Whatever the current state of Coastal defences we do at least have hugely better short-term forecasting abilities now and, crucially, significantly better communications which ensures that prior warnings should reach almost everyone in good time. This is what was sadly lacking in 1953. Here's hoping that this is one modelled event which will not verify.
  19. With respect to the possible weekend storm both the UKMO and GEM have something along the lines of the GFS being modelled, between +120 and +144 at least: UKMO GEM GFS Only the ECM doesn't have a deep depression passing across the UK over this period: +120 . +144 I would prefer the ECM to be right on this occasion because for me it's too early in the autumn season for violent storms - that can wait for when the leaves have fallen. But it's impossible to ignore the possibility that the other three models may have the right solution and the ECM has yet to join the dots.....
  20. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Yes, very windy here also and a power cut between 02:10 and 03:30 but no damage as far as I can see. Our dog slept right through the night - for a change! The rain has stopped now and wind is dropping but it was very wet for a time last night! Looks like it will be a windy week in the west before some more settled weather appears in the charts.
  21. Some variance in the models in the medium term (+216) possibly due to the volatility in the Atlantic in the short term: ECM GFS GEM ....but all have some sort of ridge in the vicinity of the U.K. suggesting that we could enjoy a more settled interlude towards the end of next week after a potentially quite stormy weekend to come.
  22. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Well. That was a wet day. A very wet day, in fact. A day for staying inside, which is what I did! And we now have a windy week to look forward to - perhaps not so bad tomorrow as first suggested but from the middle of the week there is more stormy weather around. We will have to wait to see how this will affect Wales but its certainly turned autumnal in a hurry.
  23. Maximum winds gusts over the next 48 hours as predicted by three short term models: WRF ARPEGE ICON Plus wind gusts expected at around 2300 hrs tomorrow by the GFS 0.25: So, maybe 100kph/65kph gusts in western coastal areas between 2200 Monday and 0500 Tuesday before the storm moves away to the north east and weakens. Not particularly severe but still may be disruptive especially to Irish Sea ferries and people living by the coast. I would very much like to see one of Knockers detailed summaries of the next 48 hours......
  24. Sky Full

    Hurricane Helene

    ARPEGE and GFS both suggest wind gusts of 60mph to 75mph affecting coastal areas around the Irish Sea: . These are at sea level or 10m height. At my elevation and exposed as we are, I imagine gusts could exceed 75mph. Anglesey could be the worst affected area in Wales but Ireland is even more at risk because the storm could track further west than predicted. I intend to tether a couple of small trees I have, because I have lost young trees in similar conditions before.
  25. For me, the GEM has the best looking evolution from +96 to +240 - a very nice end to the month of September: . It will be very interesting to see if we can pull off another warm and settled spell before October - or even during October.