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Here is the full ECM 0Z run showing 500s and 850s. High pressure is also seen close by the UK for most of this run and the cold air being squeezed out..... Could this be the spring board to Summer 2021....

GFS 0Z has a love affair with UK high pressure from the 21st to the 29th April, with air temperatures gradually rising through to the end of the run.... If high pressure does become a fixture over the UK at the end of April it bodes well for a warm start to May.

A very promising sequence from the GFS from mid to late April showing more or less settled conditions extending across the UK leading to above average temperatures.... Certainly more Spring like than recently - and hopefully frost-free!

Lovely bright, sunny start today, with virtually no wind. Its not freezing, but it is colder than average, and it’s the sort of day I woud prefer to see in March, not so much April! There remains a risk of some serious frost over the weekend so I can’t take the insulation off the outside tap yet - already had the pipe burst once this year!

It’s cold but not freezing here. The suns out, but there’s shower activity to the north heading this way. Might be wintry in nature but it won’t be sticking as the ground has warmed up too much. It’s not really so much an Arctic blast - just a cold snap.

We’ve had some larger shower clouds passing over us this evening but only light sleet has fallen so far. This might change as the night goes on and temperatures fall but the extra cloud cover is a good thing as it will prevent a severe frost from forming! The warnings for ice and snow have not proved to be necessary for this immediate area so far and I’m yet to be convinced that we will see much ‘disruptive’ weather tomorrow either. Maybe further north, or inland, any showers could fall as snow but it’s very unlikely to stick.

Yes, there isn’t much to get excited about in the models over the next two weeks or so, but it could all change very quickly so we’ll have to keep watching. Oh, how I miss the CFS on Meteociel and being able to see all those baking summer heatwaves ahead..... Just think, there’s a butterfly wafting it’s wing somewhere right now which will end up as a Spanish plume sometime in July.....

No further showers here this morning - they seem to be evaporating over the Irish Sea before reaching land. We’ve had a few sunny periods between the clouds but the main feature of the day is the strong and gusty wind which is making it feel very cold. The wind will drop during the afternoon but if clouds continue to form we may actually avoid an overnight frost altogether. MetO has ice and snow warnings out for this area but I’ll be surprised if anything meriting a warning will be seen here even tomorrow.

Must be pretty chilly outside where you are, just now! We have a little bit of protection from the north here, behind the Preselis, and I’ve not had much rain here so far but it’s cloudy. The cold front bringing the clouds and rain will soon pass over and will be followed by clearer, sunnier skies later but the winds will continue to be strong today (although nothing like the gales we had last month) so the wind-chill will be noticeable! Wrap up well outside!!

After a run of lovely sunny, if cool, Spring days over the weekend we are now faced with the threatened ‘Arctic blast’. Except, it does now look as though it’s going to be watered down from what was being predicted a few days ago. At least here in the west it now seems possible that we will avoid any really penetrating and damaging frosts (which is what I feared the most) and at worst we may only get some wintry showers over the next few days. There is likely to be plenty of sunshine about too, so although it will feel very cold in the N/NW winds if you find some shelter it won’t be too bad. Follow this up with a possible warmer period towards the middle of the month and April doesn’t seem so bad, after all!

The GEM seems to be the most enthusiastic of the models for hard overnight frost. Here’s the prediction for 7:00am Wednesday 07/04: Thats a very cold picture for April and would be damaging to young plants. Growers take note! Contrast the above chart with the ICON, which has frost only in limited areas.... Is there still room for moderation with regard to the impact of this cold snap?

Not necessarily to be taken as accurate at this range, but the GEM has these temperatures for Wales at 7:00am on Wednesday 7th April..... That would be a severe shock to the system for any frost sensitive plants which have been careless enough to venture out this Spring.....

Looks inevitable, now, I agree. But perhaps the snow will be in the form of widespread showers and I doubt it could last long on the ground. It’s not the snow which worries me - it’ll be great to see it falling - it’s hard overnight frosts at this time of year I hate because all the tender growth which has been tempted out by recent warm temperatures will be hammered.

Precipitation type: 18:00 Bank Holiday Monday...... My goodness.... there’s not many bits of the UK missed off that chart! If only it was Boxing Day instead.

Doesn’t look like being moderated as much as I had suggested, but I’m still hoping the coldest air will be kept away from the west coast!

Ludicrous, really, but this ECM chart shows 2-5cm of lying snow in many parts of Wales by the 6th April. This may just mean that the areas shown are expected to have had enough showers for the snow to lie 2-5cm deep if it laid, but I can’t believe we will see lying snow for two or three days next week....except at the highest levels anyway. . Temperatures will not remain below freezing during the day and even at night it shouldn’t get much below 0C. I still think the coldest air is going to move east and that west Wales at least should avoid hard frosts..... Don’t bet on it, though!

Personally, I’m hoping this cold air gets shifted at least 500 miles to the east - would make a huge difference to the weather here in the west! Selfish? Maybe, but come on, its time for a month of sun and warmth, not snow!

Sorry - moved my reply to the right thread.....

Didn’t get to Strumble Head - honestly the weather discouraged going any further up the coast, and I really sympathise with you having to work outside in it. You’ll soon be compensated by the beautiful wild flower display which occurs up there every Spring. I’ll definitely be along the coast path to see it sometime in early May, I reckon! There seems to be no doubt that we’re going to be on the wrong end of northerly blast in early April but the two main models are not in full agreement about the way this will affect Wales. However, as things stand it looks like we can expect several overnight frosts from the 5th April anywhere away from the coast, but apart from wintry showers I don’t think snow is likely. Personally, I believe this forecast may be moderated - maybe even as soon as tomorrow - and that the west coast of Wales may remain frost free, but it’s too early to say for sure.

Made use of the lifting of travel restrictions to visit Fishguard and one of our favourite fish and chips shops - ‘Hooked’. Haven’t been able to go there for months! The weather was absolutely awful with very strong to gale force winds driving heavy drizzle horizontally across the bay. At some points we couldn’t see across the harbour for the mist and low clouds but it was clear the ferry to Ireland had not sailed on Saturday night. The Irish Sea must have been really rough because that ferry rarely gets cancelled! Anyway, the fish and chips were as good as ever and the shop looks very busy. Good to see they survived the crisis and hopefully will now get a bumper tourist season as people holiday in the UK. Now we need the weather to improve and the pubs to open so we can return to the Sloop at Porthgain again.

A really potent squall moved through here at 6:00am with strong gusts and heavy rain. Thought the day was ruined before it began, but it’s all passed over now and the sun has been out to dry us off a bit! Looks like a cool, showery day with sunny bits in between. May be able to get some stuff done outside. I understand the windows need cleaning according to the boss....

Wow! And that’s not even 10 days away.....

It’s been a generally quiet, mostly cloudy week of weather here, although some sunny intervals cheered things up from time to time. The wind has been mainly north/northeasterly and this has kept the temperatures down but we’ve had no frosts this week. I don’t mind it quiet for a while after what seemed like endless weeks of gales in February but it would be nice to see some warm and sunny weather soon. Looks like some wet and windier weather is expected next week but after that......maybe signs of summer.

You, Karl, are a VERY naughty boy!

I think the last of the organised rain associated with the trailing front has passed over us now, and although still cloudy it’s definitely brightening up here. The high pressure should now start to take effect and I’m looking forward to a few days of dry and settled weather even if the sun isn’t shining all the time. I tend to look the weather as it affects the garden and know that I can very soon begin to start planting for the summer.