Sky Full

Snow or no snow, it’s a lovely morning here with bright sunshine and no wind. It feels like a perfect mid-December morning and just right for Christmas shopping if you haven’t already bought everything from Amazon….. A few days back these conditions looked likely to last up to Christmas and deliver some frost and snow to many, but even if this changes I will make the most of the dry and calm conditions before the real winter begins on January 1st!

ECM is showing this chart for snow depth at midnight Christmas Day…. That would be something to remember! I very much doubt that it will end up as widespread as that but somewhere in Wales could get a white Christmas this year

Personally I can’t wait for this promised high pressure to build in and sweep away all the low clouds and drizzle we have been plagued with recently. I would love snow at Christmas but my second choice is sunny and frosty. Could go either way….

Goodness! Bournemouth looks better than I remember it…..

Kept me awake for part of the night as I listened to the roof slates being tested but I think we’ve survived any damage. We’ve also had worse wind storms here, but there’s still a lot of the winter left to go yet…. Still very gusty out there and feeling decidedly cold, too.

Some incredible skies being created by this storm…..

Don’t wear anything likely to catch a gust though, or you might find yourself hang gliding all the way to Aber before you know it!

As fast as the squall arrived, it’s gone, and the rain has stopped completely! We are also suddenly in a weird calm and the wind has also dropped to just a strong breeze. The weather at this level is totally impossible to forecast in detail. .

An intense squall line moving through here right now with torrential rain and strong wind gusts. I expect the rain to ease up soon, but the wind to continue strengthening. I have had a couple of flickers in the lights - I really don’t want a power cut today…

The wind is getting up properly again, with large mature trees already waving around like saplings. Heavy rain so far this morning soaked the poor dog on her early morning business outside, but hopefully this will ease up after midday (the rain, that is, not the dog!). The wind, however, is set to increase in strength and peak in late afternoon. Judging by the early gusts, which can already be felt inside the house, this one is going to be interesting……. Just hoping the new shed I built last month is still standing tomorrow morning.

Not sure we can be ‘running out of time’ on the first day of meteorological winter…? The chances of getting some real winter weather are still all ahead of us, and we have 15 weeks in which to find them. The immediate outlook may be disappointingly changeable with only the possibility of cold snaps as far as we can see in the model output at this point, but there is every chance things will look very different by the end of next week…..

Well, now we all know what Storm Arwen delivered and the warnings were certainly warranted. As it turned out the highest of the Preselis, Foel Cwmcerwyn, did have a light covering of snow yesterday which was very nice to see - the earliest lying snow in the Preselis I can remember.

Couldn’t sleep for the noise last night - thought the roof was coming off for certain. Just went outside to check and I was nearly blown over by a gust as I went around the side of the house, so still a howling gale here. Lots of loose stuff flying around and the trees are being tested. And it feels cold. Couldn’t see any damage to the roof, though. . Aberporth has now reported 81mph max gust, Aberdaron 76mph and Pembrey 75mph. Must have been wild out at Strumble Head……

The models are all in disagreement about the strength and distribution of the strongest wind gusts and also whether Wales will see any snow this weekend. The GFS has the whole storm further east than most with only the borders seeing any snow, but other models show much stronger winds in the west with snow showers quite widespread. What we do know is it will be very windy almost everywhere and some of the showers are likely to be wintry especially on the highest ground. I might see a little white stuff on the Preselis but I’m not betting on it! Currently we have the sun out here but lots of shower clouds heading this way, and the wind is getting very gusty now.

ECM quite keen for almost everyone in Wales to see snow on Saturday night…. However, other models say no snow at all, so it’s anyone’s guess until the last minute. It will feel very cold though….

There continues to be some disagreement between models as to the position and strength of the worst gales but this is bound to be clearer by Friday morning. In the meantime most of the models have coastal gusts over 70mph on Saturday early morning and the Icon is showing 70mph+ gusts well inland too….. You don’t want to be on the Fishguard to Rosslare ferry on Friday evening!

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for wind covering all of Wales effective for Saturday. The current set up looks like delivering strong coastal gusts from around 2am Saturday peaking overnight and early morning, with maximum gusts up to 80mph for western coasts and headlands, but especially along the northern, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire coasts as shown by this chart: Other models have slightly different outlooks with some showing weaker gusts, but this will need watching. Best to expect some damaging gusts and take action to secure loose items outside…

Sorry about that! It’s the sun peeping through your clouds that gave me a sunrise today! Not to worry….they’ll be back over me again soon enough.