Sky Full

The red weather issued by the MetO is for the entire Severn Estuary coastline from Llanelli right round to the tip of Cornwall. This includes Swansea, Port Talbot, Bridgend, Cardiff, Newport and Chepstow. So they’re not talking it down……

The WeatherProHD app this morning is now showing sustained wind speeds of 46mph and maximum gusts of 70mph for Aberporth tomorrow morning (yesterday: 55mph sustained, 89mph gusts), so a definite reduction in severity for this part of the Ceredigion coast overnight. These are not uncommon statistics for Aberporth and although still stormy, not really to be considered exceptional. I don’t know which model they base their predictions on, though.

The WeatherProHD app this morning is now showing sustained wind speeds of 46mph and maximum gusts of 70mph for Aberporth tomorrow morning, so a definite reduction in severity for this part of the Ceredigion coast overnight. These are not uncommon statistics for Aberporth and although still stormy, not really to be considered exceptional. I don’t know which model they base their predictions on, though.

That’s a very interesting to see. I wonder what maximum wind speeds the turbines are designed to resist? Must be over 100mph at least, I suppose?

ICON-Eu 12z currently has this image for accumulated maximum gusts over the UK during the next 72 hours. Unless my eyes are deceiving me there appear to be several places where 100mph+ gusts could occur inland. Anyway, it’s going to be windy everywhere…..

The WeatherProHD app is currently showing sustained wind speeds of 55mph and gusts at 89mph for Aberporth (Ceredigion coast), sometime between 9:00am and midday Friday. I have never seen this app show gusts above 80mph for Wales before (although this doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, of course….)

Two things I remember most about the 1987 storm - the extremely loud howl eerily whining around the house and roof sounding like a jet fighter testing its engines, and the flashes of light across the whole horizon as falling trees took down power lines. I can only hope that Eunice does not strengthen to that level because the damage was awful. Not likely to see flashes of light during the day, on Friday, of course.

This chart from the UKMO shows predicted peak gusts at midday Friday: So thats 100mph possibly for the Bristol Channel, south coast of Wales, and North coast of Devon with 90mph gusts widespread inland, and almost everywhere in the south to see 75mph gusts. There could be a lot of disruption from this unless we see some change of direction or a downgrade in the strength of the winds. Looking through the charts, the UKMO seems exceptionally pessimistic and other models don’t see it being quite so violent, but nobody should underestimate the potential impact. We may have to wait until as late as tomorrow evening before we can be really certain about the likely final track and strength of Storm Eunice.

The latest chart from the UKMO for Friday morning is quite sobering. If their prediction is correct then the west coast of Wales could see widespread gusts of 90mph and even 100mph is shown affecting parts of Pembrokeshire and the south coast …. It is worth noting that other models predict the course and strength of Storm Eunice differently and not all are so pessimistic but it’s best to keep watching up to Thursday evening to get the most accurate indications. It’s also probably a good idea not to plan any unnecessary travel in South Wales on Friday.

Nature always balances herself out - I guess we’re shortly going to be paying for a generally settled and, dare I say it, dry January. This week may not even be the last one where we see stormy weather before the end of February.

Well, it depends on where you are…. From my perspective, the UKMO has downgraded overnight. These two images both show maximum predicted gusts for 9:00am Friday, first one from last night, second one from this mornings run….. The second chart also shows a definite shift south, so both statements could be said to be true. These predictions are bound to change several more times before Friday but I’m hoping for more ‘downgrades’ so I can keep my roof on…..

I like the sound of Norman - got any pictures? In the meantime, better tie everything loose down before Friday morning looking at some of the models. This is from the UKMO which doesn’t usually overdo it…. ….150km/hr gusts is around 90mph and that would be very damaging for some if it happens. I’ve got a new roof planned for the summer but the old one might not last that long…..

There’s been starling roosts reported in Pembrokeshire for several years, and another famous one at Aberystwyth pier. The huge flocks which gather are thought to be for their protection from predators which are confused by the sheer numbers but I saw a film of an owl picking off starlings under Aberystwyth pier one by one so it doesn’t look like a brilliant strategy to me! Many of them migrate to Northern Europe and Scandinavia in the spring so I don’t expect to see them for much longer. It’s been an amazing sight this year, but despite their apparent success they are sadly another of our common birds in decline.

This weekend has been a write-off so far with a strong, gusty wind and constant rain. Even heavier rain this morning and the wind is due to increase through the morning but it’s not the worst we’ve had so no damage expected! I don’t expect to do anything useful outside today. One thing to mention is that we’ve had huge numbers of starlings flying across the valley every morning for the last few weeks. Depending on the weather they sometimes fly very low just across the rooftops, or higher in huge flocks right across the sky. Must be tens of thousands of them roosting about five miles away. Tried to film it but my internet speed is so poor I can’t upload it…..

The cool, calm and mostly dry January is over and looks to be followed by an unsettled, mostly windy and less dry early February. A breezy start to the day here with sun breaking though the fast moving clouds but it still feels pretty cold out there. No snow in the immediate forecast but it can’t be ruled out for quite a while yet. For the time being we are stuck with weather from the Atlantic which means cloudy and windy with some rain ahead. However, it’s nice to see the daffs beginning to show themselves!

Yes….it’s very dull and dreary just now and quite cold with it, but I’ll definitely take this over constant gales and non-stop rain every time. Looks like no snow in the foreseeable but we’ve got all of February and March still to go and the weather can turn in a matter of days so winter 2022 is not over until it’s over….

Had to laugh yesterday - couldn’t see out of the garden because of thick fog in our part of the Preselis but had to go to Fishguard and just up the road the fog cleared. All the way to Fishguard was bathed in quite warm, wall to wall sunshine and looking absolutely lovely. Then back home and just at the top of our lane the fog was still there and hung around all evening. It’s gone this morning, though, although there has been a sharp frost overnight. I quite like this weather because it’s possible to work outside without getting wet!

If we can’t have snow, I pick this weather instead. NO RAIN in the forecast here for the next week, maybe even ten days! Sunny and dry - lovely! Wasn’t it like this last January for a while ? This could all change, of course and I’m not putting any bets on…..

A dry cold start but cloudy and rain showers forecast for later in the day. Can’t remember the last completely dry day we had here - must have been before Christmas. On the plus side, we’ve only had two named storms this season so far and if we can’t get some freezing snowy weather this winter then calm and sunny would be my next choice. ?

The GFS 6Z 0.25HD shows an interesting evolution from 4:00pm Monday 3rd January to 1:00am Wednesday 5th January as warmer air meets colder air during a brief northerly airflow following a channel low: Some strong gales briefly in the channel and the possibility of snow as the cold air moves south. Still time for this to change even in this short time frame but it could be a disruptive spell of weather if it happens like this.

Happy New Year everyone! Hope you all have a great year. Amazingly, GFS has this snow depth chart covering Wales for 10:00pm 4th January…. That’s 3 days away….. If this is wrong at so near the time then I’m going to lose all faith in computer forecasts. However, it could be wrong because not all the models agree….

This story was reported quite widely, including here…… UN confirms record Arctic temperature of 100 degrees F | Live Science WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM The UN says temperatures were "more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic." ….so it appears to me that we can take it as accurate? If so, then it is a news story which has relevance when discussing the threat from climate change since extremes of this kind are exactly what science is generally predicting will occur more often. The question is: can this one temperature extreme be definitely linked to climate change or is it just another anomaly among many?

It did dry up this afternoon and we managed to have a pleasant walk with the dog at Llys-y-Fran reservoir. Plenty of people had the same idea so it looks like we all rushed out as soon as the rain stopped! Was getting quite cloudy as we got home and I think the rain is back tonight…..

Can anyone please tell me when I can next expect to enjoy three consecutive days without any rain? Hell. One day would be good. Everything soaked through here and I think I’m gradually dissolving. Will everything change in the New Year? I don’t think the weather cares about the calendar, though.

Nadolig Llawen Hope you all have a good one