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Sky Full

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About Sky Full

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    Sky High

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Interests
    Weather (of course), climate change, architecture, agriculture, country and coastal walking, dogs, wildlife. Tottenham Hotspur FC, Welsh Rugby Union.
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes of all kinds...

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  1. Is this what is meteorologically termed a ‘channel low’.......? 75-80 mph gusts for the IOW possibly. (Arpege +57h 11am 2nd October)
  2. Jeez. As others have said, wet and windy coming up. The GFS wants to keep this pesky low pressure system around for five days solid. Quite stormy at times too....
  3. There’s no doubt that the low pressure heading our way could intensify but unusually, for this run at least, the GFS intensifies the storm over France on Saturday while the others suggest it will be over the UK on Monday. Not much to say except at least it won’t be too cold..... GEM had us right in the bullseye. 500s 850s +96 h 3rd October ECM UKMO GFS GEM +144 h. 5th October ECM UKMO GFS GEM
  4. A clear, calm and cool early start to the day here and a bit of Autumn sunshine to look forward to this weekend. Can’t be bad! The heavy rain and gales which were forecast for Thursday and Friday must have moved away to the south west because we only really had some beefy showers and gusty wind for a while, but nothing extreme or close to ‘warning’ status. The clouds are turning a subtle shade of pink as I write - very nice just before the sun rises.
  5. Oooh, Jon. You are a naughty boy! But I agree that our prospects in the immediate future are far from exciting. The start of October looks cloudy, cool and very wet at times if the GFS gets its way with slack low pressure meandering around over the UK for eight days.....
  6. A quick look at the start of October, only 7 days away now, and these three models all agree that we should expect an unsettled spell with low pressure dominating although they’re not completely in agreement about the depth and position of the main feature...... 500s 850s ECM GFS GEM This could still go either way - the low pressure system could weaken, or intensify (especially if the GFS gets its way!). Will we have to endure some severe Autumn storms this year? Too early to tell but I’m keeping a weather eye out. 👁
  7. A calm and mostly clear evening here and dry at the minute but we’ve had some hefty showers today. Looking at the radar we might have some more rain before midnight. The low pressure system bringing windy and wet weather expected tomorrow looks like it might just move a little further south than forecast and affect Cornwall and Devon more than this area, but we’re still in for some prolonged rain and strong winds later in the day. At least it’s not a serious named storm - I won’t mind if we don’t see any more of them this Autumn but not placing any bets....
  8. Well there’s not much to get excited about to be honest, but here’s the +144h charts (10th September) from our four favourite models: UKMO ECM GFS GEM Notice how similar they are? So at least there is plenty of agreement that mid September will be fairly benign (for the south at least) with no significant extremes of any kind. Yawn. But I will be the first one complaining when the next big Atlantic storm heads our way. There’ll be one along soon.......
  9. And this morning, Mike, the GFS goes from this at +240h: to this at +306h: Far too early to place any bets on this pattern but if it continues to show over the next few days the early September settled spell could prove to be short-lived.
  10. ECM does appear to show a change from low pressure influence to dominant high pressure over six days from Wednesday...... This would allow a period of settled weather so let’s cross our fingers that it happens!
  11. A quick look at what the models are predicting for +144h and I’m not really enthused..... UKMO. ECM GFS GEM That almost ever-present ‘Icelandic low pressure’ (is that a thing?) continues to show its hand which means little chance of high pressure gaining strength over the UK. I have watched this pattern recur regularly over a couple of weeks now and I don’t have a lot of confidence that a nice, settled September is about to unfold.....
  12. It’s stayed very windy in the west but at least it’s dry now. Can’t quite believe we’re getting this kind of weather in August but I guess it must have happened before... Now we’ve got another lovely Atlantic storm to look forward to mid week.. I feel very sorry for all the holiday makers who did the right thing and stayed in the UK - a lot of them have come to Pembrokeshire to be greeted by gales, rain and cloudy skies. When you consider what a wonderful Spring we had during the period when most of us couldn’t leave the house, it’s a great shame that the good weather couldn’t continue through the peak holiday period. I’m pretty sure we’ll get lovely weather back again after everyone’s gone back to work and school....
  13. Was woken up at about 12:30 by the worst rainstorm I have ever experienced anywhere. Absolutely torrential, tropical monsoon type rain accompanied by strong wind, thunder and lightning. It was hitting my south facing windows with the force of a pressure hose and I was worried for my roof. I then heard the dripping water above the bedroom so I rushed up to the loft to find two leaks . Managed to put bowls under the leaks but the noise up there was deafening - I’m just glad the roof is still on. It’s all passed away to the north towards Cardigan and the coast so I’m now recovering with a cup of tea. As I live on a hill I don’t have to worry about flooding too much but anyone living in a valley by a stream in the path of that storm must have had a worrying time. Please don’t let this become the new normal.....
  14. Wind speed expected to peak in this area in the early hours tomorrow morning with gusts up to 60mph but I suspect we will get higher than that. Strong winds predicted for the whole of Friday and Saturday. Hope this isn’t a foretaste of October and November.....
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