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Sky Full

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About Sky Full

  • Rank
    Sky High

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Interests
    Weather (of course), climate change, architecture, agriculture, country and coastal walking, dogs, wildlife. Tottenham Hotspur FC, Welsh Rugby Union.
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes of all kinds...

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  1. Looking out at an utterly bleak, grey, wet and blustery day with no end in sight, the models do nothing to cheer me up. Here are the (GFS 0.25) potential maximum wind gusts and accumulated rainfall totals over the next five days.... . So, wet and stormy at times is the story for next week - everywhere to see rain and some gales although the north and west always more in the firing line. With these conditions appearing to be the trend for winter 2020, I personally can't wait for Spring to show its face.
  2. A grey and drizzly day yesterday with only fleeting glimpses of blue sky. Today it has been raining pretty heavily now since first light with a strong gusty wind. No sign of sunshine yet but the radar suggests it might brighten up this afternoon. Its not been a very cheerful season weather-wise and the only cause for celebration now are the daffodil bulbs which have already put their noses up above ground! Spring cant be that far away now then, and if there's no snow at all this winter for my area at least the spring might come early! I can't wait for the snowdrops and early daffs to brighten the hedgerows but in the meantime we will have to suffer on with this wet, grey windy weather for a few more weeks.
  3. It's another 100% overcast day today with a chilly, blustery wind too. But it is not raining! We might have a few dry days to end the year and that will be very welcome. December has been memorably cloudy and wet, generally milder than we would like, with precious little sun. Maybe January can deliver some cold frosty days with even some snow but this doesn't look likely within the next couple of weeks.... In the meantime I hope everyone had a very happy and restful Christmas with some time off to recharge before 2020 brings in the new decade!
  4. Two different views on the weather up to Boxing Day: 26/12: Accumulated rainfall to midnight Max wind gusts at 9:00pm ECM. GFS. . GFS seems to take the Boxing Day low pressure on a more southerly track bringing less rain and lower wind speeds for Wales. That's quite a difference in such a short time frame so it will be worth watching to see which model is nearer the mark.....
  5. It was a very changeable day yesterday with quite a lot of sunny periods in between some beefy showers - not too bad really. It's another very nice start to the day here - a fair number of clouds but blue skies all around and the sun has been in and out since dawn. It's not particularly cold but in the absence of snow and ice at this time of year I'll settle for dry and sunny - thank you! There are more showers in the forecast but nothing biblical fortunately so we might avoid any flooding in the at-risk residential areas. However, there is plenty of water in the rivers and some overtopping of the banks in places so many fields are under water in the low lying areas. Christmas Day is forecast to be dry and maybe sunny with light winds - perfect for a good walk. Boxing Day is another story with wind and rain returning but I hope it won't prove too disruptive for people travelling to visit family.
  6. No comments here this week probably reflects the miserable weather - or else you're all too busy Christmas shopping! All I know is, it's been wet and windy all week with little respite. Pretty depressing. However, today has dawned dry and calm with a pinky tinge to the few clouds about. Might be a nice day for a change? Not likely to get any snow in my part of the world until at least early January but if it stays dry and cold on Christmas Day I'll not complain. There is another band of moderate rain approaching from the south later, but it might not get as far north as Wales before moving east. Fingers crossed.
  7. There is a surprising degree of divergence between the main models over the next ten days... ..................... +144hr: ......................... .....................+240hrs: .......................... UKMO. ECM GFS. GEM They don't agree at 144h and by 240h there is no similarity other than perhaps a vague agreement on a southerly Azores high pressure. I can only deduce from this that none of them can be relied on to provide an accurate forecast for 10 days time and in fact they might, and probably are, all wrong at that distance. Given the volatility of the northern hemisphere at this time we need to wait until at least the end of this week before any kind of truly reliable prediction is possible for conditions on the 25th.
  8. WARNING - Ramp Alert! Cor!! Get a look at these post-boxing day sequences from the CFS (Charts For Smiles): New Years Eve meltdown on NETWEATHER....if it ever happens. But one computer model shows it, so it must be at least possible, right? Won't be there tomorrow though - shame. Daren't post this in the MOD thread - I'd get lynched!
  9. Woke up to a dark, gloomy morning, heavy overcast and moderate continuous rain. Not a day for working outside, it would seem. Rain in the forecast every day this week although Friday looks like being a reasonable day. Come on then, let's get all this rain out of the way before Christmas so we can enjoy a spell of cold, sunny, frosty weather at the end of the month. What are the chances??
  10. Went up to Cardigan earlier and apart from the usual light scattering of debris on the road which is normal after gales I saw a very large mature conifer (cypress, I think) which had been completely split down the middle by the wind. This had been a big tree and the fallen part was as large as the part still standing. Luckily it had fallen parallel with the road or the A478 would have been completely blocked this morning. Lots of lovely logs to be had if someone wanted to get busy with a chainsaw.... No doubt similar scenes were witnessed in many other places in the west today.
  11. Didn't manage to sleep through the storm after all - the wind woke me up around 1:00am and it was quite noisy so I had to get up and check that there was no damage. All OK and no power cuts either so not as bad as it sounded, maybe. Much quieter now although still breezy but brightening up. Quite a lot of rain to get through this week, apparently, so it's fingers crossed for a change to more wintery weather before Christmas!
  12. Would that be this winter, only 8 days old, with another 82 days to go? Which has already delivered a lovely cold start to December with widespread frosts for many, and an Atlantic storm now in the western approaches? Some have been reporting hail and thunder in the south west today as well. Goodness me, hasn't this been a promising start to the season? No reason to lose heart so soon, my friend, just because we're not all buried in snow - yet. Every year I see the best winter weather conditions develop almost overnight from nothing in the 5-7 day period so we should all keep looking because the next great blizzard may only be just around the corner!
  13. Yes, it's been a fairly quiet day here too....a reasonable amount of sunshine in the day and just breezy conditions with an hour of rain earlier. The strongest winds are expected between 1:00am and 4:00am in the morning during which time I hope to be fast asleep! The wind is getting up now though and will continue to increase over the next few hours. Have to put all the recycling bags and boxes out first thing tomorrow so I hope the wind will have dropped by then or all the rubbish is going to disappear down the road!
  14. A really nasty night, now. The rain is very heavy and is hammering on the windows in strong gusty westerly winds. I detest this type of weather and cannot get it out of my head that the roof must be leaking in such conditions. I won't get much sleep until the rain eases up later tonight. Then we can look forward to even stronger gales tomorrow evening and overnight as 'Storm Atiyah' romps up. Lovely.
  15. Also quite wet especially over the higher ground in central Wales. ECM and UKMO in agreement over accumulating rainfall totals until Monday mid-morning: Something like 8cm or 9cm rainfall widely over high ground over the next three days combined with gale force winds does not make good weather for Christmas shopping. Maybe I'll leave it till next weekend......
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