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Sky Full

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About Sky Full

  • Rank
    Sky High

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Interests
    Weather (of course), climate change, architecture, agriculture, country and coastal walking, dogs, wildlife. Tottenham Hotspur FC, Welsh Rugby Union.
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes of all kinds...

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  1. A quick look at how the main models performed from their predictions 10 days ago compared with the actual situation today: . +240Z charts on the 29/01. Today's charts.... ECM GFS GFS(p) . GEM. They all predicted a relatively deep Atlantic depression but none of them got the location right nor did they correctly predict the shape of surrounding features. I tried to pick a winner but I can't make my mind up!. Attempts to predict snow at this distance are never going to be more than 25% likely to verify, and we can only hope to get a very general idea of the overall picture from these operational runs alone.
  2. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Something changed at around 4:30pm - the snow intensified and started settling immediately. We now have white roof, grass and roads. Coming down steadily but not really heavy, just enough to look as though it means it! Now, we need this to continue for at least four or five hours.....
  3. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Something changed at around 4:30pm - the snow intensified and started settling immediately. We now have white roof, grass and roads. Coming down steadily but not really heavy, just enough to look as though it means it! Now, we need this to continue for at least four or five hours.....
  4. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Oh dear. This is not looking good. The back edge of the system is approaching fast and the snow hasn't even started to settle! Everything is wet and the snow is easing off (despite all my efforts to pretend otherwise!). Unless this system starts to pivot in a serious way to bring the heavier stuff in my direction, it's all going to be over here by 5:00pm. For the south east and borders there is plenty on the way, though...
  5. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Light rain should turn to snow later. The main event is not expected until probably after 4:00pm but the ICON is indicating that the snow could continue in some areas until the early hours of Friday* Someone could get up to 10 hours of snow in that case, but not likely to be me! At the moment it is still snowing steadily but still light and not settling. However, we were not expecting a blizzard, were we.... 😜 *nb. not all the weather models are not as optimistic as this....
  6. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Just driven back from Carmarthen where it was +3c and dry, to Crymych where it is 0c. We could see the whitening top of Foel Cwmcerwyn in the distance but it was still dry this side of the hills. As I write this we now have light patchy snow falling but I can see heavier stuff in the distance. No rain ahead of it, just snow, and the wind has suddenly increased. Hope this strengthens and spreads to all of you lot in the next hour of two. ❄️ ❄️
  7. Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies: These are all cold or very cold charts for the UK. This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here! The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today.... Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018? Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....
  8. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    You guys in the south east could get five or six hours of disruptive frontal snow tomorrow if the models are even close to getting this right, especially with a little bit of elevation away from the coast: Provided we get enough here in the Preselis to leave footprints and it hangs around long enough to get some pics on Friday, I'll be happy!
  9. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The Euro high definition models are showing copious amounts of snowfall for the Beacons tomorrow.....snapshots of forecast snow depth at 2:00 am Friday morning: Thats 30cm showing in that first chart! Pretty sure it won't actually happen quite like that though....
  10. Something's got to turn up soon - there's only another two days left for people to say: 'Don't worry, it's stil only January'..... 🙄
  11. Looking at the way the models handled yesterdays events, here are the charts which the main models were showing on the 23rd January for the 29th January: UKMO ECM GFS GEM ....and here is what actually happened (GFS 0Z and 12Z from yesterday: . For me, the UKMO is the winner in getting the most detail right, but in terms of the general shape of things I don't think any of them did too badly at +144hrs having successfully predicted the position of the main weather influences - the Azores high and the large area of low pressure to the north east. They have therefore managed to predict the direction of the air over the UK and the low pressure area moving into central Southern Europe. The main feature they all missed is the small low pressure in the bay of Biscay which brought the rain and snow to many parts and which was a late development. This reinforces my impression that for local events (i.e. events affecting the UK alone) we can't rely on the models for detail at much more than +72hrs.
  12. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Rain stopped a while back, clouds now rolling back nicely, sun appearing in the west as I write this..... Might be a nice evening although we could get some showers later..... all in all I think it's over for Pembrokeshire today. I will be hoping for something more wintry on Thursday or Friday but not placing any bets! Now starting to look at the following week for any signs of more cold weather but time is running out. 😨
  13. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Looks lovely up there! We had some quite heavy sleet earlier which I thought might turn to snow but no! Its turned back to rain again - quite heavy and steady, but definitely rain! Ah well, there's always Thursday.... 🙄
  14. Sky Full

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    What a contrast from yesterday: grey, 100% overcast skies bringing cold rain although the winds remain light. No sign of snow here at all but I'm hopeful we might see some on Thursday. In fairness, this is the least likely part of Wales to see snow given the proximity of the Irish Sea! Good luck to everyone else who is hoping for a meaningful dumping!
  15. A quick look at the differences between the models at +240hrs as we move into the last full month of the winter: 500s. 850s ECM GFS GFS(p) GEM. . The usual diversity between them at this range is apparent but ECM, GFS and GEM all have a deepening low pressure in the North Atlantic tracking east so could this be the feature which has the greatest chance of verifying? If so, will it move south and allow heights to build over Scandinavia or will it move across the UK bringing probably unsettled, wet and windy conditions. No point looking further ahead for clues because the models will each have a different solution and in any event l am not nearly knowleable enough to form a meaningful opinion!
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