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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Glandwr, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Interests
    Weather (of course), climate change, architecture, agriculture, country and coastal walking, dogs, wildlife. Tottenham Hotspur FC, Welsh Rugby Union.
  • Weather Preferences
    Extremes of all kinds...

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  1. Still some variations on a theme by the models this morning, but for sheer entertainment value I pick: the GEM 850s at +186h: . You won't see this again for a few years.... how about the GFS 500s at +336h.... Is the vortex paying us a visit? Get the tea and biscuits ready.... the ECM still determined to ruin the party: But here comes the cavalry - the UKMO comes to the rescue.... Still on track for the coldest start to March for many a year!
  2. Never mind about the extra logs - you need to suggest they come and live with you for a couple of weeks. When the power cuts start you can share the candles!
  3. 'Splodge'. I like it! Good old fashioned meteorological term, that...
  4. On the 14th February the ECM and GFS were showing these conditions for he 23rd (nine days ahead): ECM GFS . compared with today's +72hr charts from the same models: . To me, this looks like the ECM was on the right track six days ago, and nine days ahead of the easterly setting up. That's a pretty good performance in my opinion, and even if there were some wobbles along the way, the ECM wins the prize for modelling the easterly correctly. Of course, some of the brilliant posters on here had worked it out even earlier, so who needs the ECM anyway?
  5. Now the UKMO is showing these Siberian conditions within the reliable timeframe: Europe goes into the freezer, and we are next: The air is being drawn all the way from Siberia directly to our shores - I've never seen that before..... Looks like the coldest air on the planet is lining itself up to pay the UK a visit - incredible images. We will certainly be talking about these conditions for years to come, and I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks goes into folk memory alongside the best winter weather of the last 50 years. Its not a good time to be a model watcher, though......the iPad batteries are taking a right bashing! Some disruptive weather ahead is now looking unavoidable.
  6. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    No need to worry about South Wales according to these temperature predictions for Carmarthen: Atmosphere: Ground: Potential for snow every day between 28th Feb and 3rd March? i am beginning to get worried for the sheep and dairy farmers around here - they could be in for some challenging conditions in the next two weeks.
  7. ECM!! 500s and 850s 0h to 240h: . Hope these are working...? I would love to see the next few frames because early March is looking truly memorable for cold if these charts verify.
  8. No matter how pointless the exercise is, I do like to try and find correlations between current charts and historical charts. It's just possible that we might be able to judge what the conditions might be like if the Synoptics are similar. Take these charts from March 15th 1979, which brought a blizzard to northern UK: Compare these to the GFS predictions for 1st March 2018: Although these charts are not exactly the same, they are similar enough to draw comparisons, I think? The prospective cold conditions in the 2018 charts are definitely more extreme than the 1979 ones, so perhaps the weather we can expect might be more extreme as well? Obviously the charts will change over the next 10 days but even a watered down version of today's GFS forecast could bring some extraordinary weather to some, especially so for the time of year. We must continue to be patient for the time being but the reality might yet outdo all our expectations....
  9. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    OMG Andy - that looks like non-stop heavy snow for much of Wales from the 1st to the 3rd March!! That would bring some serious accumulations in places and might hang around for a bit, too, if air temperatures stay low. If only those conditions could continue to be modelled up to the 28th..... But somehow I think by then it will have changed because there has been a growing tendency by the models to move the coldest air south into Europe. Even so, we stand to get some record breaking weather out of these conditions one way or another - I would love to see more than just a centimetre or two of snow for a change.
  10. Blimey, Knocker - you do put in a huge amount of work here! I try to read it most days because your forecasts are more detailed than the BBC! Looks like you will have some company in here in a few days, though, if people migrate to the short range thread when this expected cold weather comes within 48 hours. I will be in here to get a sensible view of developments because I think there will be chaos elsewhere.... In the short term, I am hoping for a dry spell in the next few days as pressure rises over the UK and the existing multiple fronts move out to the east by Tuesday.
  11. EFL Cup And The Emirates FA Cup Discussion

    That was a good goal! You couldn't make it up!
  12. EFL Cup And The Emirates FA Cup Discussion

    Got to be happy with that. That was not a dive, but Dele has a reputation now....
  13. EFL Cup And The Emirates FA Cup Discussion

    Rochdale are gonna get a well-deserved replay at Wembley at this rate! I can only hope for a better performance from Spurs if that happens....
  14. Now we can be pretty confident that HLB will bring easterly winds to the UK for several days, if not longer, from next Friday. But how do the models see the conditions progressing from there? There seems to be much still to be resolved as the following charts indicate: +120hr (23rd Feb). +216h (27th Feb) ECM 500s GFS 500s GEM 500s JMA 500s ECM. 850s GFS. 850s GEM. 850s JMA. 850s. Even at +120 there is no solid agreement regarding the starting conditions (although the JMA does look a lot like the ECM), so it's no surprise that only four days later the models have diverged - the blocking is in three different places by +216, the codest to air is further south, east or north depending on which model you prefer, and the winds are at different strengths. The actual conditions we see could therefore vary widely from the current models by that time and we will just have to keep watching Too many charts? Possibly, but I find it difficult to compare the performance of the operationals unless I see them side by side. I am trying to be completely indifferent to the possibly record breaking conditions which are being forecast for 10 days away, the details of which we cannot know at this range, because I am more interested to see which model gets closest to the correct evolution. It's fair to say that in later frames all the models show some pretty amazing conditions which may turn out to be almost unheard of at this time of year, but quite how that will affect us around the country and how long it will last cannot yet be confidently predicted..... Except that it will be cold Anyway, we will no doubt all be spending far too much time glued to the PC screen, or our mobile phones, over the next two weeks, to the point where it may cause friction at home - so don't forget to feed the dog and occasionally talk to your significant others out there in NETWEATHER land!
  15. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Re: the forecasted easterly - those in the east may be rubbing their hands in expectation and they might well be the first to see any snow, but here in Wales it looks like we will get among the lowest overnight temperatures.... . if these temperatures continue to drop, and hang around long enough, then we can expect some epic snowfall when any Atlantic fronts try to move in from the west later....
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