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About Shunter

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    Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences
    Sun in summer, Snow in Winter

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  1. Interesting comment from Mike Rantanen……. "The decelaration of stratospheric winds is slowly propagating downwards. ECMWF is now forecasting an easterly zonal mean zonal wind at 50 hPa (~20 km altitude). Note that in the #SuddenStratosphericWarming of 2018 the wind at 50 hPa never reversed".
  2. Yes it does seem that the GFS super computers cannot resolve the post SSW impact for the North Atlantic. Despite the positive signals all over the Strat & Trop, the reviving PV definitely seems to want to head home to its North American lair.
  3. Met office probability for colder spell now end of January. That’s just over a month later than they originally stated. Big fail for them anyway you paint it
  4. Chris Fawkes just presented the longer weather outlook on the “propaganda” channel. Mentioned Mild 12 times i counted. For the following week turning ‘cooler’. ....lol
  5. The MJO has been on the sherry, rapid increase in amplitude on the 06z ...…… Click on the GIF for todays update
  6. I think today is going to see the start of some mouthwatering charts. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N at midnight is (GFS analysis): 27.3 m/s . Its going to drop like a stone for the next few days , we await the Trop response.
  7. A couple of questions .. Does anybody have historical knowledge of how quickly a raging jet stream deaccelerates when a SSW occurs? And does the warming itself create inertia that slows it down, or does the Jet just “freewheel” until it loses its energy?
  8. Zonal wind speed at 60’N increased to 28.6 at midnight. This was forecast and could indicate why NWP is showing such strength in the Jet stream. The good news is that this will fall like a stone from today to a possible reversal around the 28th. This should severely deflate energy in the jet stream around the New Year. The question is whether the models have factored this in?
  9. The 06z Op shows a small improvement at T72 with better ridging to the NW and a defined contour bringing the aforesaid Easterly draw across southern areas on Xmas Eve. That should dry the ground out a bit following days of rain. With the projected wind reversal still showing around 25th , i would ‘take a punt’ on future runs showing an increased number of colder scenarios around 3rd Jan as the downwelling progresses.
  10. He was last seen giving CPR to a snowflake in New Ash Green !
  11. The NSIDC site shows Arctic Sea Ice for 26th November being at a 10year high...… http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
  12. The forecast earlier this week was for a maximum of 14c today, yesterday this reduced to 12c and today it actually 10c ........Lets hope this trend continues.
  13. Been a thoroughly miserable wet/ damp day in the Thames Estuary. Rain on and off all day. Looks like a small depression developed and remains stationary over the area ( about 70 miles in diameter ). Rain today map shows it rotating nicely.
  14. Thick fog, slow thaw. Temp 1.4c. DP -1.1c