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    Shorne West, Kent
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    Sun in summer, Snow in Winter

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  1. yes its been moving it northwards for several runs now..........was a 5% chance on yesterdays GFS ensemble suite.... 15-20% on tonights 12z GFS.
  2. The breakdown from the SE starts earlier on this run.....all over by Friday morning for our contingent.
  3. As per GFS, if it follows this trend its over for Southern England after 4 days. IIRC this is how the 1991 event ended for us in the SE. Promises of Blizzards on the BBC and in the media ...it turned to rain after an hour and melted our laying 15cm in 12 HOURS. We need this to correct South ASAP....not worth the risk imo.
  4. BBC are a political mouthpiece above all else. Not interested in weather unless it wins votes. Not worth the licence fee ( TAX )
  5. Its all over for the South by next Friday if the GFS OP verifies. Fingers crossed its a rogue run.
  6. The GFS Low if it verifies WILL cause a thaw and Snow to Rain event in the SE. Lets hope its just the progressive nature of GFS to breakdown and revert to norm. Still worth keeping an eye on in later runs though.
  7. I remember both 1987 & 1991 events started with Snow Grains. Forecasts were saying Dry but the grains became Flurries within a few hours. the event started 24 -36 hours before the forecasted start time both times IIrc.
  8. Agree. But given the almost unanimous agreement of abnormal cold and snow an early headline advisory ( heads up ) would appear sensible to those planning long distance travel over the weekend.
  9. Hopefully this will improve tomorrow. Heres a good link for next week ..............http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2 Run it through for latest forecast precipitation.
  10. Both run from relatively "stale" data... which translates generally to 18-24 hours behind current model runs. So expect both to start reporting lower temps and maybe snow flurries from tomorrow.
  11. and now according to 12z GFS Op the SE gets a 3 day Freeze followed by a mudfest as warm air pushes north from the SW.
  12. And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.
  13. Yh and the Rock Salt salesman are laughing all the way to the bank.
  14. and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE. Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.
  15. Just vacated the “classroom “ and this post is the most sensible I’ve read this morning. Sometimes it’s best to stand back and look at the bigger picture. I think it’s obvious we are going to get colder, with winds expected to be from an Easterly quarter. Depending on Where the HP lands determines whether we are dry or otherwise. So in a nutshell , cold ( potentially becoming colder ). Dry initially but possibly snowy as time progresses with the SE this time being in the immediate firing line. With the Jetstream “ retiring” to Africa, at least we can escape the mild SW / Nw dross that’s been dished up down here over the past few months.