Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Blessed Weather

Forum team leader
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,110

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Blessed Weather

  1. Blessed Weather
    After this last incredible week of snowfall for the Western Alps the forecast synoptic charts for next week are shaping up deliver further huge falls of snow. This 500hPa chart from ECMWF for next Wednesday sums up the 'big picture' very well, with a lobe of the tropospheric PV pushing down into Europe: Wed 17th Jan Looking at the GFS charts for next week we can see from the 850hPa forecasts that the 0C isotherm is over the Alps, so freezing level around 1,500m, and the matching precipitation charts show snowfall starting Tues 16th and effectively not stopping for the rest of the week. By Sat 20th January even colder air has arrived with the potential for more widespread, heavier snowfall down to lower altitude - good news for the lower resorts. I'm keeping a close watch on the changeover weekend of 20th/21st - it could be an interesting experience as I'm due to fly into Chambery and transfer by coach to Val D'Isere. The last few GFS runs have been consistent with these forecasts, so higher confidence than usual in the general outlook. Charts for Tue 16th, Wed 17th and Sat 20th: 850hPa Precip The severe-weather.eu guys have also picked up on the outlook:
  2. Blessed Weather
    Hum.... don't know what to make of this tweet.
  3. Blessed Weather
    Yes, that's the one. If I remember correctly the highest point of the road is 2,800m. It's the sheer drop at the side of the road on some sections that Mrs Blessed didn't like. Mind you, she had a point - if you accidentally slipped off the road you'd definitely be a goner!! Coming down into Val D'Isere:
  4. Blessed Weather
    Incredible images Daniel!! It's of particular interest to me as I know Bonneval very well. I ski most years at a small resort called Val Cenis and Bonneval is a beautiful village situated right at the end of the valley, a few miles further up the road. It has it's own ski area, renowned for off-piste skiing. In the summer there is a narrow, twisting mountain road that goes up and over into Val D'Isere and I successfully scared the living daylights out of Mrs Blessed when we drove over it the other year! I hope nobody minds, but here's few pics to show the setting. It's well worth a visit!
  5. Blessed Weather
    This is dire weather. Absolutely nothing going on out there..... yawn! Misery caused by a thin, annoying layer of cloud.....
  6. Blessed Weather
    The incredible snowfall in the SW Alps has just been shown by the BBC Weather presenter on the forecast following the lunchtime news. Certainly the photos coming in from Tignes this morning are spectacular. "Anyone seen my coach?"
  7. Blessed Weather
    And if current model output is to be believed, further heavy falls are likely over the next 10 - 14 days as Low Pressure dives into Europe on frequent Polar Maritime incursions! This is shown nicely on the ECM/GFS Mean 500hPa Height anomaly chart for the period 15th to 18th January. In this set-up the western Alps always likely to do best, and locally, altitude likely to be an important consideration, with locations above 1,500m doing particularly well. But the models have convinced me - I've just booked myself a week in Val D'Isere (1,850m) for w/c 21st Jan. Whoopee!!
  8. Blessed Weather
    Some lovely snowy pics of the heavy falls that (in particular) impacted the southern French Alps and Italian Alps yesterday 8th Jan. Anywhere above around 1,500m was turned into a winter wonderland!! Tignes reported 3m of snow at 2,000m!!!! Cervinia, Italy: Sestriere, Italy: Tignes, France Bonneval sur Arc, France: Tignes: With thanks to severe-weather.eu for the pics.
  9. Blessed Weather
    What a disappointment. The models can't even deliver us the crisp sunny weather we were 'promised' two days ago for today! That's now been scuppered by a layer of low cloud trapped under the High pressure.
  10. Blessed Weather
    Not sure where to post this as it doesn't fit the thread titles 'Global Temps' or 'Arctic Sea Ice'...... anyway, here's Arctic Air Temps and they remain on a depressing upward trend:
  11. Blessed Weather
    Now this is something I would NEVER want to experience!!! Shame the tweet doesn't give any detail as to where this was.
  12. Blessed Weather
    Hi Southender. Don't know whether it's a problem my end, but I couldn't get the photo to open.
  13. Blessed Weather
    (I've just posted this in the Short Range Model thread - but very relevant for our Region).... Arpege model showing some enjoyable 'seasonal' weather to be had from the upcoming settled spell, with a couple of predominantly sunny days and overnight frosts away from eastern and southern coasts. After the excesses of the holiday period, some lovely weather for a brisk walk in the country! Nebulosite (cloudiness: black is clear sky) for Sun 7th 16.00 and Mon 8th 16.00: Temperature Mon 8th 06.00: On a lighter note, I adored this video clip of a dog enjoying some tobogganing. My two dogs love snow, they run around the garden like lunatics, clearly excited by the wonderful white stuff to play in!!
  14. Blessed Weather
    Arpege model showing some enjoyable 'seasonal' weather to be had from the upcoming settled spell, with a couple of predominantly sunny days and overnight frosts away from eastern and southern coasts. After the excesses of the holiday period, some lovely weather for a brisk walk in the country! Nebulosite (cloudiness: black is clear sky) for Sun 7th 16.00 and Mon 8th 16.00: Temperature Mon 8th 06.00:
  15. Blessed Weather
    Storm Eleanor made quite some impact in the Alps yesterday (Tues 3rd Jan), bringing heavy snowfall and strong winds. Alpe d’Huez, Avoriaz, Valmorel and most ski areas in the Chamonix Valley were closed. In Switzerland the entire 4 Valleys area was closed. Many other resorts shut their upper slopes with just a few runs near to their bases open. Val Thorens was one of the hardest hit by the storm with access roads closed, emergency accommodation offered and an effective curfew overnight. The biggest reported snowfall of the past 24 hours is a metre at Nax in Switzerland, Grimentz has had 70cm and there’s been 50cm at Tignes and Zermatt. A party of Brits were among skiers left dangling 200m above the slopes when the cable car system at Valtournenche, Italy, failed in the high winds. And tragically a skier died in Morillon, France, when a tree fell onto the piste. ITV News report including video clips: https://www.itv.com/news/2018-01-03/storm-eleanor-leaves-skiers-hanging-above-ground-in-cable-cars-for-two-hours/ Inthesnow.com report: https://www.inthesnow.com/ski-areas-re-open-storm-eleanor-moves/
  16. Blessed Weather
    That was a wild night! Woke me up several times. Below, the overnight radar sequence and some 'official' max gusts from around the east of our patch:
  17. Blessed Weather
    Hi suxer. I hope you don't mind me adding to what Carinthian has said above. I've skied there several times, although stayed in Zell am See, just down the road. For a number of reasons I think it's a great choice and you'll all have a fantastic holiday. For a start, with most of the skiing up on the Kitzsteinhorn glacier it's absolutely 'snow-sure', so you won't have to worry about conditions being poor. And learning to ski up on the glacier will be a spectacular experience. There's plenty of big, wide slopes up there, ideal for learning. Here's a pic of the glacier from one of my visits: There is also a small ski area down on the outskirts of town and you can see that on the right of this tourist board photo: But I thought this enthusiastic reviewer summed up the resort nicely: Kaprun itself is the friendliest place we have been to in Austria, the locals can't do enough to help and make you feel very welcome. We loved the lively apres-ski bars in Kaprun at the bottom of the Maiskogel and the Pavilion in the centre, both with great atmosphere, lively crowds and friendly staff. We have decided to get married there next year as we fell in love with the place. Highly recommend Kaprun, a beautiful place with fabulous people and great slopes for beginners through to advanced. I hope you have a great time! Links: Resort info http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Kaprun Resort reviews http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Kaprun/reviews Tourist Board https://www.zellamsee-kaprun.com/en/region/places/kaprun
  18. Blessed Weather
    Some positives from Dr. Cohen's latest weekly blog (1st Jan). He has previously expressed his view that this winter will "reach a fork where the outcome hangs in the balance". The positive news for cold prospects is that he now believes.... "As far as this winter it does seem increasingly likely that a cold winter will be realized across the Eastern US, Southeastern Canada, Western Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) and East Asia including large parts of Siberia." This conclusion, he believes, is down to the continuing repetitive minor disruptions to the PV..... ".....as we get later into winter I do believe that persistence grows in importance and even just one more stratospheric PV disruption may be sufficient to carry cold temperatures into the month of February regardless of the behavior or strength of the stratospheric PV. And there are already signs of yet another energy pulse mid-month that often disrupts the stratospheric PV." Full blog: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
  19. Blessed Weather
    Following recent heavy snowfalls, the rise in temperatures across the Alps over the last few days has seen the risk of avalanche rise substantially. This warning issued by the BBC today: And tragically there has already been loss of life at Val d'Isere in the French Alps. This from Le Dauphine publication: After the deadly avalanche in Val-d'Isère: the PGHM's call for caution Following the avalanche that killed a young skier yesterday on the heights of Val d'Isère, Captain Patrice Ribes, boss of the PGHM in Savoie, calls for caution. "In the coming days, the off-piste and outings (hiking) in mountain areas are to be avoided.The avalanche risk is very high. It is better to give up." The mountain bulletin of Météo France is unequivocal: avalancheux risk of 4 out of 5 above 2700 m of altitude and between 4 and 3 below, on all the massifs, with very thick plates in altitude, are very dangerous for the skiers. http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2017/12/31/apres-l-avalanche-mortelle-a-val-d-isere-l-appel-a-la-prudence-du-pghm
  20. Blessed Weather
    A very Happy and Healthy New Year to everyone! I think you've hit the nail on the head with the "twists and turns" comment CK. For the first time in ages we stand a great chance of seeing snow showers coming in off the North Sea, but will all the necessary boxes be ticked?! For example, look at this 850hPa temp chart for next Sunday. Peeps up on the NE coast of England and Scotland will be getting lots of lovely snow showers in -9C uppers and a stiff NE'ly, whilst our Region currently looks too close to the Low pressure warm sector with uppers not cold enough. I think we'll be glued to the high res models later in the week as this one develops. But isn't it great to have some weather to get excited about!
  21. Blessed Weather
    Happy New Year everyone! Fascinating model watching! Pleasing to see that although the Strat PV might be flexing its' muscles up above, the Trop PV is still being knocked about down below! Brief observation - whilst this morning's 0z ECM isn't as good as yesterday's 12z, it does retain good amplification and suggests ongoing opportunities. Late in the run a suggestion of the Azores high ridging towards Greenland and a substantial trough dropping into Europe. Surely Jan 2018 is going to deliver at some stage!!
  22. Blessed Weather
    Is this better John? The post above was 4 hourly intervals at 5 frames/second and, below, the same intervals but at 1 frame/second.
  23. Blessed Weather
    A very windy few days (Sun to Weds) coming up as this sequence of maximum wind gusts forecasts from Arpege highlights. Hardly an area of the UK escaping from seeing a gust of 50 mph+ at some stage, although for a change the far north of Scotland might turn out to be the least windy place to be! Wednesday is looking a particularly windy day nationwide.
  24. Blessed Weather
    No disagreement amongst the GEFS members in the overnight output (0z 28th Dec), with all 21 members now forecasting a stronger-than-average Vortex (10hPa 60N) by 12th Jan. The zonal mean zonal wind is currently 43.8 m/s and the forecast for 12th Jan is 59 m/s. Today: 12th Jan: Wave 2 activity forecast for around the 8th Jan, but on this occasion this doesn't seem enough to disturb the upper strat at 10hPa? (Any comments/views on this last point would be welcomed please). Charts http://weatheriscool.com/
  25. Blessed Weather
    What a wet 24 hours! It's such a shame to be so close to a major snow event but just end up with a spell of wet snow that quickly turns to slush (and that was if you were lucky! Nothing IMBY). Look at these rainfall totals for eastern areas - well over an inch for many. With a tweek of the synoptic pattern we could have been digging ourselves out!!
×
×
  • Create New...