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Blessed Weather

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  1. Blessed Weather
    Dan Holley and Weatherquest waving the flag for some decent snow in Norfolk tonight. ECM in support of wider snow for the Region, saying the NE'ly flow will have turned more SE'ly by midnight resulting in snowfall moving further inland. High Res models showing maybe 7cm - 8cm on the coast and 2cm - 5cm inland by 10.00 tomorrow. ECM for 18.00 this evening still NE'ly, then swinging SE'ly by midnight (I'll be glued to the radar watching for the switch!!). Then gradually turning E'ly thru 06.00 to 12.00 tomorrow. Snowfall accumulation to 10.00 Weds from High Res models Hirlam and Arome: Good luck everyone!!
  2. Blessed Weather
    There's lots of focus on the end of the week so I thought I'd take a closer look at what today's ECMWF 0z run is forecasting. It will be interesting to compare this with tonight's 12z for any changes to how this model sees the incoming Low progressing against the very cold air over the UK. Precipitation type is only given as snow or rain, so no clues here regarding the possibility of freezing rain. I'll start at 06.00 on Thur 1st March when the first precipitation arrives on the south coast. It's all snow with 850hPa temp around -8C and 2m temps comfortably below 0C. Moving on 6 hours to 12.00 Thurs and it's snowing south of the M4. The 0C 850hPa isotherm still down over France and 2m temps remaining sub zero over southern counties. By 18.00 Thurs the band of precipitation has made no further progress east, but has intensified over the SW corner including S. Wales. The 0C 850hPa isotherm has arrived at the south coast and 2m temps are lifting above zero along coastal fringes. This looks a particularly disruptive time in the SW and Wales, particularly for higher ground, with heavy snow in strong winds. By midnight Thurs precipitation starting to turn to wet snow, sleet or rain south of the M4 as both the 0C 850hPa isotherm and +0C 2m temps reach that line. Probably this the highest risk period for freezing rain? Then by 06.00 on Fri 2nd, as the Low stalls with any progress NE and slowly drifts to the NW, signs that colder air is returning south as both 850hPa and 2m temps move back south. Jumping to 18.00 on Fri and precipitation has largely fizzled out in the SW corner, but an occluded front, slowly moving north, is giving a period of snow in a band across the UK from NI to the SE corner with favourable 850hPa temps (approx -8C on the front edge and -3C back edge) and 2m temps sub zero. I'll end there. With model output still very much subject to change it's not worth taking the analysis any further. But ECMWF suggesting a very interesting end to the week. What will the 12z runs bring? Charts from https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/continente+1-europe-ecmwf-87.htm
  3. Blessed Weather
    Norwich based forecasters Weatherquest are providing some really good charts and explanations during this cold spell. Here's another explaining why places nearer the coast are doing better for snow this evening.... Link https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/968218129049489408
  4. Blessed Weather
    Hi everyone - a very warm welcome to the thread!! Although maybe in the circumstances I should be giving you a freezing cold welcome and wishing you lots of snow! Anyway, I hope you see lots over the next few days.
  5. Blessed Weather
    Here's this morning's Met Office Yellow Warning for our Region. Looks and sounds very promising for most of our area. Between 14:00 Mon 26th and 23:55 Mon 26th Snow showers, already affecting eastern parts of England early on Monday, are expected to become more persistent and more widespread through Monday afternoon and evening. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, stranding of some vehicles and passengers, as well as delays or cancellations to rail and air travel. Some rural communities could become cut off. Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-26
  6. Blessed Weather
    The radar looking promising for this stage of the day with fairly widespread light snow. Forecasts suggest this will become heavier this afternoon, with the Look East presenter suggesting it "could become troublesome". Radar at 06.50: And here's an update on the forecast snowfall accumulations by mid-night Tues from a few of the High Res models Arpege, Hirlam and NMM:
  7. Blessed Weather
    These charts from Dan Holley at Norwich based Weatherquest are now very appropriate for our new Region. Potential snow accumulations to midday Mon, Tues and Weds:
  8. Blessed Weather
    Nice graphic from Dan Holley (Weatherquest, Norwich) of their view of the potential snow accumulation in EA up to Weds lunchtime. If I can get the 10 - 15cms shown for just west of Ipswich I'll be very pleased. Tweet: https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/967766917598629889
  9. Blessed Weather
    Hi Clair. My Friday look at Andorra for next week, as promised. The headlines are a cold start to your week as the bitter air moving in from the north east brushes with Andorra. This gets pushed away north as the Low Pressure just off Spain sees the wind flow turn to a southerly direction and as a band of precipitation moves north. This gives snow during Wednesday before turning to rain Thursday below approx 2,000m. Friday & Saturday looking cooler with freezing level down to around 1,500m and mainly dry. Some charts. First the GFS and ECM 500hPa charts for Tues 27th in agreement with the cold air brushing Andorra. The 500hPa charts again in agreement show the cold air retreating north as the Low exerts its influence. Zooming in using GFS, the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts for Tues 27th show it very cold with a few snow showers around. By Weds the band of precipitation has moved in falling as snow by day, maybe turning to rain during the evening: By Thurs the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts show it milder with the 850 air at +4C and freezing level around 2,000m. Whatever the weather I hope you have a great holiday. Try and post some pics!
  10. Blessed Weather
    Nice update this morning from John Hammond: By Monday, very cold (‘polar continental’) air will have arrived across all areas of the UK – a marked step up in chill from the weekend. Temperatures in many places will be barely above freezing, the cold accentuated by the easterly wind. Weather-wise, initially, western areas will be driest and brightest. But already there will be snow flurries further east. And through the day, snow showers here will become heavy and more prolonged. Accumulating snowfall is likely to develop across central and eastern parts of the UK, especially as we head into the night. By Tuesday. I’m expecting disruptive amounts of snowfall to have fallen in some places. There is likely to be marked variation in amounts of snowfall, but parts of southeast England, East Anglia, northeast England and eastern Scotland are in line for some of the larger accumulations. Conditions will deteriorate further through the midweek period, with the prospect of disruptive snowfall to be carried more widely westwards across some parts of the UK. Nobody is immune to snowfall by this time. I expect school closures, as well as major impacts on travel and other infrastructure. https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/23/on-the-horizon-historic-cold-spell/
  11. Blessed Weather
    Hi svalji. The really bitter air that's moving in from the east doesn't arrive in Chamonix until Monday. You can see this from the snowforecast chart below - look at how the temps plummet. But the good news is that there's already reasonably cold air over the Alps, snow conditions are very good, and you will see moderate snowfall during your weekend (particularly on the mountain, although it might be a bit sleety at times in the town). Have a great weekend! Mid-mountain 5-day forecast on 22nd http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/6day/mid Hi Clair. I was just about to post a reply last night and accidentally hit my keyboard and everything disappeared! So forgive me using the GFS 12z charts from last night as I'm off to work in a mo (although there doesn't appear to be any change to GFS forecasts for early next week). I use the 500hPa charts to understand the big picture - what's the synoptic pattern (highs/lows) and how do the forecasts suggest these will change. So looking at next week's GFS chart for Tues 27th we can see the bitterly cold air mass from the east gets tantalisingly close to Andorra. Also note the Low Pressure moving off the Atlantic towards Spain. Then I use the 850hPa charts and precipitation charts for more detail. The 850 isotherms give the temp at approx 1,500m, which is around the height of a lot of mountain ski resorts. So the -5C isotherm will mean approx -5C at 1,500m. So using the GFS higher res output for the 27th and 29th we can see the bitterly cold air to the NE of the Pyrenees, but by the 29th that has moved away north as the Low off Spain moves in with winds from a southerly point raising the 850 temps and precipitation also approaching. 850 temps 27th 29th Precipitation approaching 27th Whilst I do look for features (e.g. isobar kinks) when looking at the other charts, for real detail I switch to other (better) high res models as they come into range, e.g. Arpege goes out to 114 hours. You can find them listed to the left when viewing Meteociel charts. Click on the country of choice (in your case France or Spain will do). I'll have another look on Friday as promised.
  12. Blessed Weather
    Here's how far out the various High Res models go, so Icon UK just picking up Sunday. All available on Meteociel from the list on the left and the UK flag! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510 Icon 120 hrs Arpege 114 hrs NMM 72 hrs Hirlam 48 hrs Arome 42 hrs Hi Donna. Yes, this week is getting colder with maybe some flurries by Sunday. But our main interest is next week with the VERY cold air arriving Monday and (hopefully!) some beefy snow showers kicking in later Monday into Tuesday.
  13. Blessed Weather
    Hi Clair. As @J10 has posted above, widespread cold across Europe, but at the mo Andorra escaping the worst. Whilst I don't think it will, there's always the possibility of that changing at this range so that Andorra sees the much colder air. So if it's possible for you to wait, could I do a few charts on Friday? By then the outlook for your week will be looking a little clearer. Btw, what resort are you going to?
  14. Blessed Weather
    Oh my! Great tweet from BBC forecaster Chris Fawkes. Embedded troughs.... heavy snow for Eastern England....!! Bring it on!
  15. Blessed Weather
    Hi. It's very difficult to say at 7+ days away, particularly with the SSW adding to model uncertainty. I think there is definitely a risk that it could be cold and snowy over the few days you are in Andorra. This evening the ECM model is tracking the very cold air further south than previously modelled. It's only one run but highlights that forecasts are still changing at the 7 to 10 day range. If ECM is correct, it could turn very cold in Andorra. Some charts from this evening. First the 500hPa charts showing the cold air over Europe and close to Andorra on the 27th Feb. GFS ECM Next the 2m temperature and precipitation charts for Spain/Andorra for 13.00 on the 27th show it chilly and snowing at altitude (cool and raining at lower altitude). So a difficult call for you. If you are able to stall a decision I'd recommend waiting until later this coming week to make it. (Let me know if you'd like the updated charts posted then). You could also use this snow forecasting website to check likely weather for a specific resort in Andorra, but it only goes out 5 days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/ Good luck!
  16. Blessed Weather
    Off on my annual March pilgrimage to Val Cenis in the French Alps on the 10th. We normally call it our "summer holiday" as the last several years have provided warm sunshine and lazy lunches on restaurant terraces. But I think this year's trip might be rather colder! I just wish I could go skiing as often as you do - you lucky bloke!! You'll be needing the hip flask full of schnapps next weekend!
  17. Blessed Weather
    It's starting to shape up as an excellent season for the Alps Julian. And I believe the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event currently taking place will likely result in ongoing cold for Europe, so maintaining the generally excellent conditions right to the end of the season. Looking like a good year to book a late trip! A few charts. Here's the GFS 'Feb-up-to-17th + next 7 days' 2m temperature forecast for Europe. And alongside is the 7 day temp trend. And this morning's (17th Feb) GFS and ECM Northern Hemisphere charts for around 26th/27th Feb showing the potential synoptic pattern with cold air flooding into Europe: Edit: Just seen the new post from @carinthian about the "extreme cold" warning. Any views on the outlook to the end of the season Paul?
  18. Blessed Weather
    Lovely photos Angela, thanks for posting them. I'm really pleased that you had such a lovely holiday. Me thinks you'll be back in beautiful Austria sooner rather than later
  19. Blessed Weather
    Encouraging Weather Co Europe tweet this afternoon (16Feb). Europe cold, unsettled with snow to start March. I'm fed up with tweet charts disappearing, so here's the screen grab as JPG. Click to enlarge.
  20. Blessed Weather
    Yes, I agree Blue, it is a tad confusing. Dr Amy Butler uses 65N and it was her that published a paper in 2015 "Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings" in which she stated: It has been over 35 years since the WMO offered a definition of SSWs, during which time many more SSWs have been observed. We suggest the time is ripe for improvements and updates. In her paper and conclusions she suggested: ......using 65°N instead of 60°N, may decrease sensitivity to changes in the vortex edge..... then about 20% more events will be detected compared to using 60°N only. Full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00173.1 But back to the current event and I see that http://weatheriscool.com/ is reporting (with their exclamation marks): The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
  21. Blessed Weather
    The chart below from Hannah E. Attard shows Zonal Wind dipping below -30 m/s (the black analysis line) around the 14th Feb and the GEFS forecast (red forecast line) suggests the maximum negative Zonal Wind flow will have been reached sometime today (15th) around -34 to -35 m/s. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
  22. Blessed Weather
    Many thanks both. Well I've just removed all cookies associated with Twitter and Netweather, plus cleared my cache, and still only seeing the text in tweets. I guess we're running out of options? It's the intermittent nature of the problem that's weird. Why do the pics/charts appear one minute and gone the next??
  23. Blessed Weather
    TWITTER PROBLEM The intermittent problem with posted tweets not displaying pics & tweets (just text) is still occurring. This morning I tried using MS Edge instead of my usual Firefox browser, but this made no difference. I have tried all the helpful suggestions made by @Summer Sun with the exception of clearing cookies (which I'm reluctant to do). The fact that this problem is occurring with another member @Bring Back1962-63 who uses two other browsers (Chrome and Internet Explorer) suggests to me that this either a Twitter or Netweather problem. Any comments please Support Team? Many thanks.
  24. Blessed Weather
    A very confident forecast from Weather Co Europe!! Note the highest precipitation is down the eastern side of the UK..... snowfall on easterly winds!
  25. Blessed Weather
    Thanks again SS. At the mo I'm seeing tweets OK (and it's the on/off nature of the problem that's puzzling). But next time they won't display I'll switch to MS Edge and see if they work with that browser.
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