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Blessed Weather

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  1. Now just 24 hours out from the decent Alps snow event I posted about last Saturday 22nd and comparing the GFS 500hPa chart I posted then with this morning's 0z update shows it was a pretty good effort from GFS at 4 days out: Sat 22nd for 26th: Tue 25th for 26th: Some decent amounts of snowfall expected over the next 48 hours (Wed 26th/Thur 27th) according to the Arpege forecast this morning:
  2. Well I wasn't expecting a squall line this morning, but that's exactly what rattled through here just now, giving 10 minutes of heavy horizontal rain. 11.50
  3. An update on the recent run of extreme positive AO values. The more extreme forecasts from ECM a week ago were not realised, nevertheless the World Climate Service reporting that yesterday (21st Feb 2020) set a new record: "The positive Arctic Oscillation regime reached a new extreme yesterday, with a daily AO index of +6.5, a new all-time (1950-present) record, and beating the record set/tied 10 days ago." Source: Twitter @WorldClimateSvc
  4. Forecasts are shaping up nicely for some widespread cold and snowfall across the entire Alps, kicking off next Wednesday 26th Feb and lasting well into the first week of March. The general theme has been showing its hand in both GFS and ECM model output for some days now, and certainly the snow event for next Weds is now into the more reliable 5-day time-frame. Here's the GFS 500hPa, 850hPa temps and precipitation forecasts: And zooming in using Netweather Alps charts shows the precipitation, 850hPa temps and SLP forecasts in more detail. Generally freezing level will be down to around 600m, but look at the squeeze on the isobars - that could produce some high winds and unpleasant conditions in the western Alps. And then it's on to Sun 1st March for another possible snow event. So all-in-all, some good news going forward for replenishing snow depths as we head towards the tail end of the season.
  5. Great image. Wintry showers too. And here's what the radar shows underneath that frontal cloud, with London seeing the heaviest band of rain this lunchtime:
  6. Animation of the rapid change in 850hPa air temperature as the cold front swings through the UK today. From +1C to -7C in a very short period of time resulting in some back-edge snow.
  7. Analysis from Dr Amy Butler shows the longer term trend in the Arctic Oscillation from 1950 to date is clearly creeping ever more positive. Nevertheless, some significant periods of negative AO still regularly occurring with winter 2009/10 the most recent event. Source: Twitter @DrAHButler
  8. Chilly but beautiful morning here. Down to 3C overnight. Looking at the various high res model output, our Region escapes the worst of the rain over the next couple of days, with both GFS and NMM suggesting no more than 5mm for most. Cumulative rainfall to mid-night Thurs: GFS NMM The most interest will be from the cold front coming through on Thursday afternoon. This could produce another squall line with a short period of intense rainfall and gusty winds. Shown here on the fax chart for midday Thurs and Arome precip forecast for 15.00:
  9. A notable gap in the squall line.... heading straight for my location.
  10. If used properly this thread could be an excellent source of factual and helpful information about COVID-19. Instead it has become clogged with speculation, news from unproven sources and tit-for-tat arguments. I have just removed dozens of such posts. Please ensure posts in here are based on fact or from a reliable source of information. And please keep discussions respectful. Thank you.
  11. World Climate Service tweet 13th Feb: This is getting ridiculous - peak AO index values in recent ECMWF HRES (10-day) runs: Feb 12 00Z +6.4 Feb 12 12Z +7.3 Feb 13 00Z +7.6 We've capitulated and expanded the scale on our AO graphics to accommodate the extreme. 1950-present record (set 3 days ago) is +6.3 Source: Twitter @WorldClimateSvc
  12. Yes, it was a lovely sunrise here in Suffolk as well this morning. This wind gust chart for East Anglia a great way of showing the forecast period of strongest winds expected this weekend from Storm Dennis. Saturday and Sunday will see a lengthy period of winds gusting around 50 - 55mph here. Chart courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_
  13. Some more excellent analysis from Weatherquest about yesterday's storm. Fascinating stuff as it highlights the length of time since we last saw an equivalent really strong wind event in our part of the world. And Sussex looks like it was in the firing line as the squall line went through. "A simple contour map of the number of years since each observation station last recorded wind gusts of equal strength or stronger than Sunday's. In general, areas with the most significant values were East Midlands into East Anglia, where the squall line gusts were most intense." Source: Twitter: @danholley_
  14. Here are the maximum wind gusts recorded by the official stations in East Anglia up to yesterday evening (9th) : No records broken but you have to go back a few years to find similar strengths, e.g. Monks Wood not since 2005 and Marham 2007. Chart and stats courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_ And now with nervous anticipation we look to this afternoon - can we possibly see a wet snow flake whistling along in the gusty wind as a heavier area of precipitation moves through? NMM Precip15.00
  15. What a gorgeous morning. Everywhere white with a good frost and now clear blue skies. Got down to -1C imby. Lovely satellite image at 09.10 with much of the UK clear and snow visible on the Alps, Pyrenees and spine of Italy.
  16. Hi Pit. Maybe some supporting charts and explanation would be helpful to readers. Has central pressure reduced? Low moved further north? Have wind speeds reduced? Thanks.
  17. Gusty wind today. There was a 35mph gust here at 11.30 and at Langdon Bay in Kent a 42mph gust at 13.00. But these figures might look positively tame if the forecasts for next week verify, starting this coming Sunday and with little let-up all week. The mid-week (12th) storm looking particularly nasty for our Region if the deep low pressure materialises and tracks as suggested by GFS in its output over the last couple of days. One to watch. Weds 12th:
  18. Should be another good fall of snow across the Alps today as a cold NW'ly incursion drops down the eastern flank of the UK high pressure ridge. The issue will be how low freezing level can get with Netweather charts suggesting 1,000m for the western Alps (France) and 800m for eastern Alps (Austria). Here's the GFS charts showing 500hPa pattern and temps at 850hPa (approx 1,500m) and Netweather chart for freezing level at midday: And the Euro4 high res model's take on snowfall today: Cumulative snowfall by mid-night tonight: At the moment the GFS model suggesting a repeat next Tues 11th Feb too:
  19. And so another week's skiing comes to an end. A bit of a mixed bag of weather with 2 day's of snow and gusty wind in sub-zero temps and now at the end of the week feeling like a Spring trip with temps in Les Menuire resort (1,850m) up to +4C in the sunshine. But a great week with lots of amazing skiing across the 3 Valleys. A few pics: Snowdrifts on parked cars outside apartment: Val Thoren: Les Menuire: Meribel:
  20. Heavy snow and gusty wind in Les Menuires today (Tues 28th Jan). Probably about 20cms so far and it's not forecast to ease off until tomorrow lunchtime with a further 30cms. Here with friends and it was a unanimous decision to not bother with skiing in these conditions - more enjoyment from a good lunch and a few beers. A few seconds of video from our balcony:
  21. Hello from Les Menuires in the French Alps. Arrived yesterday, Sat 25th, and grabbed this pic in between unpacking - terrific views from our apartment in the Reberty area at about 2,000m elevation. I'm hoping that wasn't the last opportunity of taking in the views as the weather today has been intermittent snowfall and poor light. And the forecast for the rest of the week is for snowfall after snowfall from Mon evening through to Thursday. Here's the cumulative snowfall being forecast by Arpege from today through to Thurs lunchtime. Over 1m of snow for higher elevations. @prolongedSnowLover I think the first half of Feb could turn out OK judging by recent GFS runs. But we need to see continued signs of high pressure to the west of the UK with cold/snowy incursions coming down the eastern flank and impacting the Alps. If recent runs turn out near the mark, probably benefiting the northern and eastern Alps (Austria) the most. Fingers crossed.
  22. I don't think so Debby. Here's a tweet from the Met Office this evening stating 1053.6hPa is the record set in Aberdeen in 1902 and is not likely to be broken "tonight". Edit: I forgot to mention the excellent blog from our own Nick F this afternoon: Rare Intense High Pressure System Over Britain, 1050 hPa Possible - Blog by Nick Finnis WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Central pressure of intense anticyclone centred over SW England Sunday night could reach 1050 hPa, last time this happened was 16 Jan 1957.
  23. Still possible I would imagine - although I'm not sure that your suggestion of Mrs Jones hanging her smalls out in Braemar qualifies! The Indian Ocean Dipole wasn't 'discovered' until the 1990's by Saji et al. There are dozens of new scientific research papers published each year which are slowly increasing our understanding of the drivers and impact of various teleconnections. Probably the biggest area of better understanding yet to come will be how the various teleconnections interact and in what circumstances one (or more) will suppress or enhance another and be the dominant player; progress being made but much more needed. This season's most notorious teleconnection seems to be the IOD, with impact across at least two continents - Europe and Australia - and arguably the globe through suppression of the MJO for a long period.
  24. Hope not - a strongly positive IOD seems to be a winter killer for the UK (if cold/snow is your preference). Here's the index since 1982 showing 3 previous strong events in 1994, 1997 and 2006. Source: https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php And the weather in the winters that followed? 1994/95 - Very mild with a 3-month winter average CET of 5.9C. The summer of 1995 saw a record breaking heatwave. A very warm 12 month period from Nov 1994 to Oct 1995. Details: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06320.x 1997/98 - Very mild with a 3-month winter average CET of 6.1C. Record breaking winter warmth for the UK and Europe. The previous highest February (and winter) temperature observed in the United Kingdom was 67.5 degrees (19.7 Celsius) set 13 February 1998, at Royal Observatory in Greenwich, London. Monday's historic temperature was reached during the continuation of a major, long-lived warm spell over western Europe. Etienne Kapikian, a meteorologist for Meteo France, described the responsible air mass as "exceptionnelle" in a tweet. A massive ridge of high pressure or heat dome has sat over the region for almost a week. Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-fine-the-uk-just-recorded-its-hottest-winter-day-since-records-began 2006/07 - Very mild with all 3 winter months CET above long term average. This article from Philip Eden: Winter 2006-07 - Why so warm? https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Why-so-warm.htm Source of CET readings: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1499 It's too early to say what influence the IOD might have on next winter 2020/21, but the latest BOM forecast suggests will turn positive again during the coming summer. Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean Link for winter CET values: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1499
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