[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

I'm going to lock this one and start a fresh thread, as it's a virtually impossible job to detangle the arguments in here from the reasoned comments etc. 

As ever though, I do think it's important we don't respond to people who are clearly breaking the forum guidelines, as it is only fanning the flames of the fire that they're perhaps trying to start..

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[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

6 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Until people stop to look at the matrix, they are going to keep accusing the Met of getting it wrong. Even when they haven't.

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

[Storm Jocelyn, Amber ⚠️]

The Met Office have issued warnings for Jocelyn now, with Ambers in the far north and west of Scotland currently for Tuesday and Wednesday. 

 

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Latest update from @Jo Farrow

 

[Forum issue]

You need to join the groups you want to post in to @Dancerwithwings - there's a join group button beneath the image at the top.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

The met office have updated and extended their amber warnings, covering all of Scotland as well now.

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Not often you see amber's as widely as this.. (Sunday and Monday)

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

One or two models show high impacts for Scotland.

A blend of GFS wind predictions and Met Office wind predictions this morning show Scotland spared the worst of the wind.

Highest gusts from both of these sources reserved for the SE coast of England

Not too sure I agree with that - most models have very strong gusts in the se and indeed along the south coast, but most, if not all show the highest gusts along western coasts (and higher, exposed spots in the north) - including Scotland, with eastern/northern coasts coming into play later too.

There's a second phase shown on many models, later in the night with a core of very strong winds moving across Scotland - even the GFS has this, but if you're viewing the three hourly version, it jumps from west coast to east coast between frames.  

And beyond all that, it's going to be widely very windy, even inland. 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Just posting this in here as well as the Storm Isha thread, as it's well worth a read. 

Synoptic Analysis: Storm Isha arrives Sunday night

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A synoptic analysis looking at the development and impacts of Storm Isha arriving Sunday night and expected to bring widespread gales with potential for disruption.

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

@Nick F has written an in depth synoptic analysis for Storm Isha:

Synoptic Analysis: Storm Isha arrives Sunday night

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A synoptic analysis looking at the development and impacts of Storm Isha arriving Sunday night and expected to bring widespread gales with potential for disruption.

 

Well worth a read..

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

It's the met office's own model. So they may well react to it in due course, if it continues to show the same.

There's still a fair bit of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this one.

 

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

This evenings ukv is showing some pretty concerning gusts for exposed parts, especially in northern Scotland. 

It's subject to change of course, and there is still quite a lot of uncertainty over storm isha's track and strength. It's certainly one to keep up to date with over the weekend.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Some significant gusts showing on the UKV when zoomed in a bit - closing in on 100mph in the western isles and potentially also northeast Scotland. And 95mph over the the high ground of Northern England.

 

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Latest from Jo:

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

10 minutes ago, TillyS said:

It does indeed look serious and ought really to be taking more of our attention.

Although it can obviously be discussed in here too. There is a dedicated thread on the go for Sunday into Monday here

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99787-possible-storm-isha/?do=getNewComment

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Yep, UKV looking pretty nasty for Sunday pm and into Monday. 

  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Arpege also windy on Sunday into Monday, but further north than the GFS. 

  

[New multi-model worldwide model viewer now available as a Beta release]

Little update just live - you can toggle on SLP (Air pressure) over any map type now - just select it from the menu and it'll display. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This thread is a bit long, and as we're entering a new phase in the weather, now's a good time to start a fresh thread:

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Certainly one of the reasons. 

[Model banter and emotions]

A thread for emotive reactions to the models outside of the scope of the model discussion thread. If you want to moan about the models or ramp up the models etc, then this is the ideal thread for you. 

Please have a read of the model thread guidelines for more info on what model discussion is and what sort of post may be better suited to this thread:

https://community.netweather.tv/model-discussion-guidelines/

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Aviemore today

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

A quick pic from this morning's dog walk. It's a bit cold out!

[Forum issue]

You just posted! What issue are you seeing and on what thread?

[Warning points]

All posts were being pre moderated in the model thread for a time, so it was unrelated to your very old warning. I don't know why it showed up in this instance, sounds like a bug, which I'll raise with Invision.