Paul

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You may certainly want to look again at things, but would you not also seek to learn why things didn't turn out the way that may have been expected rather than just throwing out an entire set of theories and indicators? If you just dismiss things as flawed and ignore them if they don't go to plan, where does that end up? On that basis, all the forecasting models would have been in the bin years ago and we'd be back to using seaweed.

I'm going to lock this one and start a fresh thread, as it's a virtually impossible job to detangle the arguments in here from the reasoned comments etc. As ever though, I do think it's important we don't respond to people who are clearly breaking the forum guidelines, as it is only fanning the flames of the fire that they're perhaps trying to start..

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I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault? A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing.

The Met Office have issued warnings for Jocelyn now, with Ambers in the far north and west of Scotland currently for Tuesday and Wednesday. UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Latest update from @Jo Farrow

You need to join the groups you want to post in to @Dancerwithwings - there's a join group button beneath the image at the top.

The met office have updated and extended their amber warnings, covering all of Scotland as well now. UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Not often you see amber's as widely as this.. (Sunday and Monday)

Not too sure I agree with that - most models have very strong gusts in the se and indeed along the south coast, but most, if not all show the highest gusts along western coasts (and higher, exposed spots in the north) - including Scotland, with eastern/northern coasts coming into play later too. There's a second phase shown on many models, later in the night with a core of very strong winds moving across Scotland - even the GFS has this, but if you're viewing the three hourly version, it jumps from west coast to east coast between frames. And beyond all that, it's going to be widely very windy, even inland.

Just posting this in here as well as the Storm Isha thread, as it's well worth a read. Synoptic Analysis: Storm Isha arrives Sunday night WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A synoptic analysis looking at the development and impacts of Storm Isha arriving Sunday night and expected to bring widespread gales with potential for disruption.

@Nick F has written an in depth synoptic analysis for Storm Isha: Synoptic Analysis: Storm Isha arrives Sunday night WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A synoptic analysis looking at the development and impacts of Storm Isha arriving Sunday night and expected to bring widespread gales with potential for disruption. Well worth a read..

It's the met office's own model. So they may well react to it in due course, if it continues to show the same. There's still a fair bit of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this one.

This evenings ukv is showing some pretty concerning gusts for exposed parts, especially in northern Scotland. It's subject to change of course, and there is still quite a lot of uncertainty over storm isha's track and strength. It's certainly one to keep up to date with over the weekend.

Some significant gusts showing on the UKV when zoomed in a bit - closing in on 100mph in the western isles and potentially also northeast Scotland. And 95mph over the the high ground of Northern England.

Latest from Jo:

Although it can obviously be discussed in here too. There is a dedicated thread on the go for Sunday into Monday here https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99787-possible-storm-isha/?do=getNewComment

Yep, UKV looking pretty nasty for Sunday pm and into Monday.

Arpege also windy on Sunday into Monday, but further north than the GFS.

Little update just live - you can toggle on SLP (Air pressure) over any map type now - just select it from the menu and it'll display.

This thread is a bit long, and as we're entering a new phase in the weather, now's a good time to start a fresh thread:

Certainly one of the reasons.

A thread for emotive reactions to the models outside of the scope of the model discussion thread. If you want to moan about the models or ramp up the models etc, then this is the ideal thread for you. Please have a read of the model thread guidelines for more info on what model discussion is and what sort of post may be better suited to this thread: https://community.netweather.tv/model-discussion-guidelines/

Aviemore today

A quick pic from this morning's dog walk. It's a bit cold out!