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Everything posted by Paul

  1. Locking this one now, new model thread here: And new models, teleconnections and nowcasting thread here:
  2. Latest blog from @Nick F Cold & Snowy General Election Day Next Week? A Possibility According To The Weather Models... - Blog by Nick Finnis WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Although it's still 9 days away, and subject to change, the weather models have have for several runs indicated a cold Election Day Thursday next week, even with a risk of snow.
  3. Can we keep it to the models in here - particularly bearing in mind that political debate isn't allowed on here.
  4. We've been having a few issues this morning, and put the ddos defence on just as a precaution. It's off again now though, and the forum should be more responsive again.
  5. But in fact, it's the opposite - many sensible winter forecasts (eg the ones which don't get featured weekly in the Express!) have gone for a milder than average winter. And if it were as simple as just looking at what happened during the previous season and expecting that to continue, then we'd all be laughing and no-one would ever get one wrong, but the weather just isn't that static. Put it this way - the summer was warmer than average, yet Autumn wasn't.
  6. It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway! Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely.
  7. Hot off the press Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2019/2020 | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
  8. That's really about how it is. We've obviously tried a few combinations over the years and as long as the main bulk of people want to talk about cold weather prospects at this time of year, that'll happen in whatever thread is set up and any other options will be quieter. That's not to say we're not opening to trying other options, but taking last year's hunt for cold thread as an example. It created more complaints and issues than any other version of the model thread has done before. The reason for that is that we very much relaxed the moderation in there and the overwhelming feedback was that it was too open, too messy and impossible to find enough juicier discussion. At the same time, we also had an in depth thread which started ok, but tailed off, because people do tend to gravitate towards the busier thread. So, while we're actively discussing options right now, there's a fine balance and we need to try to consider how best to achieve what the majority want. As with anything though, setting up the threads is a tiny part of it, it then has to be a joint effort across the whole membership (inc the team) in keeping them on topic etc.
  9. And that's the 0c isotherm in now too.
  10. Precip type charts are in the viewer now (please note they aren't displaying correctly prior to the 09z run today - 26th November, but will be fine from now on). 0c Isotherm charts should be in for the 12z run as well.
  11. More snow related stuff (inc prec type) on the way shortly
  12. So, just as a reminder - these are the forum guidelines, some people need to urgently read them. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/guidelines/ Below is a line from those guidelines, we've had just about every one of the items on that list this morning alone. Those creating these issues need to stop now to avoid it becoming a really short winter on here for themselves. Otherwise the team will be acting swiftly to ensure this sort of stuff doesn't continue.
  13. It's none of the above. It's simply differences between input data and the amount and type of data available. It's run on the same super computers regardless of run and every run uses the same physics. There's some evidence to suggest the 00z and 12z runs are stronger, and based on the presentation linked below, there's also less data available to the 06z (the presentation suggests ~30%) than all of the other runs. https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf This is obviously based on the older version of the GFS, but the input data sources haven't really changed in that time, as far as I'm aware.
  14. Winter is just around the corner now, so this thread is getting busy. Please keep it to the models in here though, there are numerous other topics for discussing other aspects of the weather. Please also keep it friendly and bear in mind that not everyone has to be hunting for cold in here, so if someone posts about something other than cold weather, it doesn't automatically make them a troll! As ever, please hit the report button if there's a post you think may cause an issue due to being off topic, out of line or against the forum guidelines in any way. If you're not wanting to discuss the models, here are some alternative threads: Autumn: Moans, Ramps and Banter Winter speculation and chat Record breaking wet Autumn? Join the CET guessing competition for 2019/2020 Stratosphere and polar vortex watch Interested in teleconnections and their impacts? Head to the teleconnections discussion If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  15. Santa's back Christmas Weather Forecast - White Xmas 2019 WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
  16. Paul

    Pershore flooding November 2019

    Some photos of the flooding in Pershore. Least not as bad as 2007 (yet), thankfully.
  17. I like your style! The team are discussing this at the moment.
  18. The 06z etc, are the times the models are initialised, so they'll always be available later. The UKV updates 8 times a day, and all runs but the 3z and 15z come through about 3.5 hours after the initialisation - so for example. the 6z is out between 0900 and 0930. The 3z and 15z run out to 120 hours rather than the 54 the others do, so they're a bit later and are generally about 5 hours after the initialisation.
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