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Paul

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Everything posted by Paul

  1. Ooh yes, it's busy and with good reason - it's a rare beast to see the sort of charts we're seeing right now. It would appear the UK and much of Europe is headed into the freezer, but how cold, and for how long? As always, please keep to just discussing the model output in this thread. We have a thread open to discuss the cold spell - so if you're wanting to chat more generally about it, or talk about forecasts from the BBC, Met Office, Netweather etc, please head over there: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/ It's also worth keeping an eye on is the blogs from our team including @Jo Farrow & @Nick Finnis, there's some great info about the SSW, the cold spell etc, and new articles will be posted regularly: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/blogs Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
  2. This is a new thread option we're trialling, which hopefully will become a regular. Please use it to discuss the model output at short range (between 0 and 72 hours). For longer term discussion, please head over to the main model thread: Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere Happy New Year!
  3. A new thread, for posting and discussing tweets about the forecast models currently. Please only post tweets in this thread, not the main model or banter threads. The reason for this change is that a tweets are, by their nature brief, which in turn can leave them open to multiple interpretations, which in the fast-moving model thread can mean a lot of reaction to misinterpretations which pulls the whole thing off on a tangent.
  4. With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread. Nick has also blogged about the SSW here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather? And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem It's fair to say that confidence in the exact weather we're going to see from mid-next week onward is currently very low, but the Met Office are confident enough in the likelihood of cold weather that they've recently put out a press release: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk Winter could be set to go out with a bang it seems, but it's not nailed on, yet.....
  5. Sorry all, we may never get to the bottom of where the previous thread went unfortunately, but here's a fresh thread to get going with..
  6. Yep, good point - will see if we can get that added shortly.
  7. Can we keep it friendly please. Fwiw, I think both sets of views are right here. There is no guarantee of snow in a particular location, so anyone thinking there's a 100% chance of getting a dumping has a reasonable chance of being disappointed. There is, however a risk of some decent snow amounts in places - eg most likely through showers (so by their nature will hit somewhere and miss somewhere else). Anyone wanting a chart to 'prove' it will struggle, since you're going to need to wait for the mesoscale hires models to come in to play at around 48 or so hours out for that sort of thing to be resolved. For those wanting the meto's word for it, this is from their latest press release: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/cold-conditions-end-of-february And for charts, the ensembles give a broad brush kinda guide, in terms of whether there's a chance of precip or not - and as you can see, plenty think there is, but again - detail and specifics are impossible at this point - all they suggest is that the ingredients are more likely than not to be in place for showers:
  8. So, that's another couple of people blocked from posting in here, any more takers? Those wanting to just moan for moanings sake, please head to the moans thread. Those wanting to troll, please do one. Those wanting to discuss the models, please carry on
  9. Here's a look at the 00z forecasts for 1200 Monday, from the last 11 days on the GFS and Ensembles, plus the last 5 on the ECM. Yesterday the GFS and Ensembles did have the cold coming a touch faster, but in the main you'd mostly call it variations on a theme, barring a few big wobbles here and there. The ECM has had the odd wobble but has actually been more solid on the timing of the deeper cold, if anything bringing it forward a tiny amount today. GFS GEFS (ensembles) ECMWF
  10. Here we go then, already plenty of interest in the strat this year, and with a La Nina likely, perhaps a less hardcore strat than last year can be expected? @chionomaniac will be along soon to fill in his thoughts on where things may be headed this year, but in the meantime, I've copied his excellent strat guide from 2015 below. For more info you can also read his full tutorial here: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere/tutorial Ed's opener from 2015/16 As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting to understand how the stratosphere may affect the winter tropospheric pattern, so forgive me for some repeat from previous years, but it is important that those new to the stratosphere have a place that they can be directed to in order to achieve a basic grasp of the subject. The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly above the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere and the layer that is directly responsible for the weather that we receive at the surface. The boundary between the stratosphere and the troposphere is known as the tropopause. The air pressure ranges from around 100hPa at the lower levels of the stratosphere to below 1hPa at the upper levels. The middle stratosphere is often considered to be around the 10-30hPa level. Every winter the stratosphere cools down dramatically as less solar UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone content in the stratosphere. The increasing difference in the temperature between the North Pole and the latitudes further south creates a strong vortex – the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The colder the polar stratosphere in relation to that at mid latitudes, the stronger this vortex becomes. The stratospheric vortex has a strong relationship with the tropospheric vortex below. A strong stratospheric vortex will lead to a strong tropospheric vortex. This relationship is interdependent; conditions in the stratosphere will influence the troposphere whilst tropospheric atmospheric and wave conditions will influence the stratospheric state. At the surface the strength and position of the tropospheric vortex influences the type of weather that we are likely to experience. A strong polar vortex is more likely to herald a positive AO with the resultant jet stream track bringing warmer and wet southwesterly winds. A weaker polar vortex can contribute to a negative AO with the resultant mild wet weather tracking further south and a more blocked pattern the result. A negative AO will lead to a greater chance of colder air spreading to latitudes further south such as the UK. AO chart The stratosphere is a far more stable environment then the troposphere below it. However, the state of the stratosphere can be influenced by numerous factors – the current solar state, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the ozone content and distribution and transport mechanism, the snow cover and extent indices and the ENSO state to name the most significant. These factors can influence whether large tropospheric waves that can be deflected into the stratosphere can disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex to such an extent that it feeds back into the troposphere. Ozone Content in the stratosphere Ozone is important because it absorbs UV radiation in a process that warms the stratosphere. The Ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere by a system known as the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (the BDC). The strength of this circulation varies from year to year and can in turn be dictated by other influences. The ozone content in the polar stratosphere has been shown to be destroyed by CFC's permeating to the stratosphere from the troposphere. The overall ozone content in the polar stratosphere will help determine the underlying polar stratospheric temperature, with higher contents of ozone leading to a warmer polar stratosphere. The ozone levels can be monitored here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/index.shtml One of the main influences on the stratospheric state is the QBO. This is a tropical stratospheric wind that descends in an easterly then westerly direction over a period of around 28 months. This can have a direct influence on the strength of the polar vortex in itself. The easterly (negative) phase is thought to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. However, in reality the exact timing and positioning of the QBO is not precise and the timing of the descending wave can be critical throughout the winter. Diagram of the descending phases of the QBO: (with thanks from http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html ) The QBO has been shown to influence the strength of the BDC, depending upon what phase it is in. The tropical upward momentum of ozone is stronger in the eQBO , whereas in the wQBO ozone transport is stronger into the lower mid latitudes, so less ozone will enter the upper tropical stratosphere to be transported to the polar stratosphere as can be seen in the following diagram. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/4563/2013/acp-13-4563-2013.pdf However, the direction of the QBO when combined with the level of solar flux has also been shown to influence the BDC. When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events in the stratosphere, as there is also during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum, so the strength of the BDC is also affected by this – also known as the Holton Tan effect . http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50424/abstract http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021352/abstract The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered a westerly phase for this winter. As mentioned warming events are more likely during solar maximum when in this westerly phase – with the solar flux below 110 units. Currently, we have just experienced a weak solar maximum and the solar flux heading into winter is still around this mark. This doesn’t rule out warming events, but they will not be as likely – perhaps if the solar flux surges then the chance will increase. Latest solar flux F10.7cm: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: One warming event that can occur in the stratospheric winter is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) or also known as a Major Midwinter Warming (MMW). This, as the name suggests is a rather dramatic event. Normally the polar night jet at the boundary of the polar vortex demarcates the boundary between warmer mid latitude and colder polar stratospheric air (and ozone levels) and this is very difficult to penetrate. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary tropospheric (Rossby) waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. These waves can introduce warmer temperatures into the polar stratosphere which can seriously disrupt the stratospheric vortex, leading to a slowing or even reversal of the vortex. Any SSW will be triggered by the preceding tropospheric pattern - in fact the preceding troposheric pattern is important in disturbing the stratospheric vortex even without creating a SSW. Consider a tropospheric pattern where the flow is very zonal - rather like the positive AO phase in the diagram above. There has to be a mechanism to achieve a more negative AO or meridional pattern from this scenario and there is but it is not straightforward. It just doesn't occur without some type of driving mechanism. Yes, we need to look at the stratosphere - but if the stratosphere is already cold and a strong polar vortex established, then we need to look back into the troposphere. In some years the stratosphere will be more receptive to tropospheric interactions than others but we will still need a kickstart from the troposphere to feedback into the stratosphere. This kickstart will often come from the tropics in the form of pulses and patterns of convection. These can help determine the position and amplitude of the long wave undulations Rossby waves - that are formed at the barrier between the tropospheric polar and Ferrel cells. The exact positioning of the Rossby waves will be influenced by (amongst other things) the pulses of tropical convection, such as the phase of the Madden Jullian Oscillation and the background ENSO state and that is why we monitor that so closely. These waves will interact with land masses and mountain ranges which can absorb or deflect the Rossby waves disrupting the wave pattern further - and this interaction and feedback between the tropical and polar systems is the basis of how the Global Wind Oscillation influences the global patterns. If the deflection of the Rossby Wave then a wave breaking event occurs – similar to a wave breaking on a beach – except this time the break is of atmospheric air masses. Rossby wave breaks that are directed poleward can have a greater influence on the stratosphere. The Rossby wave breaks in the troposphere can be demonstrated by this diagram below – RWB diagram: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/86/5/86_5_613/_pdf This occurs a number of times during a typical winter and is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere due to the greater land mass area. Most wave deflections into the stratosphere do change the stratospheric vortex flow pattern - this will be greater if the stratosphere is more receptive to these wave breaks (and if they are substantial enough, then a SSW can occur). The change in the stratospheric flow pattern can then start to feedback into the troposphere - changing the zonal flow pattern into something with more undulations and perhaps ultimately to a very meridional flow pattern especially if a SSW occurs - but not always. If the wave breaking occurs in one place then we see a wave 1 type displacement of the stratospheric vortex, and if the wave breaking occurs in two places at once then we will see a wave 2 type disturbance of the vortex which could ultimately squeeze the vortex on half and split it – and if these are strong enough then we would see a displacement SSW and split SSW respectively. The SSW is defined by a reversal of mean zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 60ºN and 10hPa. This definition is under review as there have been suggestions that other warmings of the stratosphere that cause severe disruption to the vortex could and should be included. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/Butleretal_BAMS2014_submit.pdf A demonstration of the late January 2009 SSW that was witnessed in the first strat thread has been brilliantly formulated by Andrej (recretos) and can be seen below: The effects of a SSW can be transmitted into the troposphere as the downward propagation of the SSW occurs and this can have a number of consequences. There is a higher incidence of northern blocking after SSW’s but we are all aware that not every SSW leads to northern blocking. Any northern blocking can lead to cold air from the tropospheric Arctic flooding south and colder conditions to latitudes further south can ensue. There is often thought to be a time lag between a SSW and northern blocking from any downward propagation of negative mean zonal winds from the stratosphere. This has been quoted as up to 6 weeks though it can be a lot quicker if the polar vortex is ripped in two following a split SSW. A recent paper has shown how the modelling of SSW and strong vortex conditions have been modelled over a 4 week period. This has shown that there is an increase in accuracy following weak or strong vortex events – though the one area that the ECM overestimates blocking events following an SSW at week 4 is over Northwestern Eurasia. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007 One noticeable aspect of the recent previous winters is how the stratosphere has been susceptible to wave breaking from the troposphere through the lower reaches of the polar stratosphere - not over the top as seen in the SSWs. This has led to periods of sustained tropospheric high latitude blocking and repeated lower disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. This has coincided with a warmer stratosphere where the mean zonal winds have been reduced and has led to some of the most potent winter spells witnessed in recent years. We have also seen in recent years following Cohen's work the importance of the rate of Eurasian snow gain and coverage during October at latitudes below 60ºN. If this is above average then there is enhanced feedback from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the Rossby wave breaking pattern described above and diagrammatically below. Six stage Cohen Process: The effect of warming of the Arctic ocean leading to colder continents with anomalous wave activity penetrating the stratosphere has also been postulated http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf As ever, I will supply links to various stratospheric websites were forecasts and data can be retrieved and hope for another fascinating year of monitoring the stratosphere. GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ ECM/Berlin Site: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html Netweather: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere Instant weather maps: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php NASA Merra site: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html Previous stratosphere monitoring threads: 2016/17 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86485-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201617/ 2015/16 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/ 2014/2015 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/ 2013/2014 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/ 2012/2013 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/ 2011/2012 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/ 2010/2012 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?hl=%20stratosphere%20%20temperature%20%20watch 2009/2010 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57364-stratosphere-temperature-watch/ 2008/2009 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50299-stratosphere-temperature-watch/
  11. I've had a great idea, we could make some other threads and areas on the forum for people to discuss all sorts of other topics that are accessible with just a couple of clicks, then this thread can be kept to just model discussion? Oh wait....
  12. Wow, some of you are like bloody toddlers. Either grow up fast or don't expect to be able to post in here for much longer, it's ridiculous.
  13. Ok, we're in the lull before the 12z's roll, so time to lock this and get a new thread going:
  14. The much talked about SSW has taken place, but as Nick blogged about a few days ago, it doesn't always mean cold for the UK. The signs are good though (if you like cold that is), and the model output is showing a lot of northern blocking currently. It's set to be a really interesting time to follow the models if nothing else, so please carry on the discussion here. As ever, please keep it to model discussion only in this thread..... Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
  15. Reaction Limit

    Funny enough, nor did I!! But anyway, it appears there was a limit of 100, which I've removed.
  16. [Email protected]

    That's a different thing, people here are just talking about the email protected wording, which is just where people are using @ in posts which is being seen as an email address. It sounds like you've selected the fluid view option, if you go to the forum homepage and click the button near the top (shown below), it'll change back to the normal version.
  17. [Email protected]

    That comes up when someone puts an email address into a post, it then protects that email from getting picked up by web robots and added to spam lists. It's probable the system may be confusing it for when someone uses @[name] , I'll take a look
  18. [Email protected]

    Not sure what you mean by randomly displaying, and can't see anything myself, can you post a screenshot?
  19. Please head to the regional threads or the cold spell discussion thread to chat about bbc forecasts and the like
  20. It probably shouldn't come as a shock, but all the met office forecast stuff has been removed - please head to the relevant threads to discuss things other than the models.
  21. This is not the BBC forecast thread, please stop replying to the (already deleted) post about it! Thank you
  22. Please use this thread if you have any problems with the site or the forum, we will then do our best to help out..
  23. New Radar apps RAIN SNOW

    Hi, the iOS app isn't out yet, but the online one is here https://www.netweather.tv/radar
  24. People are commenting on the run, not sure I see the issue with that - it's not like anyone is jumping overboard in their reactions to it..
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