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Everything posted by Paul

  1. I know it's not the typical thing to be posted in here, but I came across this while I was switching my energy to this company, and there's actually some really good, thought provoking pics in there (in my opinion at least). So I thought I would share. https://octopus.energy/climate-art/
  2. Are you clearing cookies regularly (maybe you have a program or app which does that)? Otherwise, it's set to store your selection for a much longer period than that, and from what I've seen in normal use doesn't ask any near as frequently.
  3. Version 8.1 will be the next update. We're still working through it, as it has been completely re-written on the back end and has a brand new design layout. Here's a quick peak at what it'll look like (please ignore the fine red grid lines on the map, they'll be gone on the released version).
  4. We're working on the updated version at the moment - there a lot of changes from the original v8 in there so it's taken a bit longer than we hoped, but hopefully it shouldn't be too far off.
  5. Nope, we don't use GFS at all. The forecasts use UKV data (which incidentally also picked up the snow in the week), with some Netwx (NMM) model blended in beyond 120 hours.
  6. I'm working on it - we got a couple of themes but each of them had some problems, but hopefully will get there soon.
  7. Not sure how you can, in good faith, ask that question, when you're obviously ignoring the overwhelming amount of data out there which doesn't tie in with your theory. Such as this for Canada? Temperature change in Canada - Canada.ca WWW.CANADA.CA Renseignements sur les indicateurs d'Environnement et Changement climatique Canada. Or this from the USA? Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV Comparisons of meteorological local, state, regional, national, and global data in historical perspective to determine trends
  8. Yes, there was me expecting to wake up to a continuation of yesterday's cross-model agreement(ish) that at least the southern half of the UK would be seeing high pressure by Xmas day, and the GFS has thrown a proper curve ball. That on its own is not a lot in itself, but having expected the GEFS to show that as an outlier, in fact there are quite a few similar scenarios and one or two really stormy ones shown on there. Still, very low confidence for now though, and the mean is a bit more in line with everything else.
  9. Indeed, it's all very uncertain at the moment, which is all the more reason not to cling on to a single colder run, then claim to have been let down when it changes on the next run!
  10. Come on Roger, you and I both know that you're clearly cherry picking, as it's obviously a handy station to 'back up' your claims. I'm sure you accept though, that if in a world where there are 1000's of weather / climate recording stations, it's the averages accross those which counts if you're talking about global temperatures, not just single station records. I'm quite sure if someone were pulling a single station which showed extreme warming, and presenting it as a statement of fact that 'proves' the warming is even more extreme than feared globally, you'd be among the first to point out that it was cherry picked, and rightly so.
  11. Look at the average temperatures - heatwaves have always occurred, but the direction of travel of the temperatures overall is clear. Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV Comparisons of meteorological local, state, regional, national, and global data in historical perspective to determine trends Or the mins and maxes So, the very stats you're 'quoting' to apparently disprove that the USA is warming, in fact show that it clearly is. Go onto the page, and see how many of the top warmest years have occurred since the 1990's. As for it being benign, take a look at the cluster of years in the 'very warm' category too. U.S. Percentage Areas (Very Warm/Cold, Very Wet/Dry) | Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV This product shows, for each month, season and year since 1895, how much of the contiguous United States experienced extreme (top or bottom 10%)... As for tornadoes, hurricanes and the like - there's so much else going on in terms of how and why they develop etc, the fact that their frequency shows no particular change isn't relevant to temperatures trends and certainly aren't indicative of a lack of warming, as you're trying to suggest.
  12. Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat, time for a fresh thread for model chat. As ever please keep the discussion in here to the models. For non model related chat and banter, please use the Winter chat, moans and ramps thread. Not a fan of the cold hunting rollercoaster at this time of year? There's a new thread for you to use. This one is a space for those who perhaps don't enjoy the rollercoaster ride that the model discussion becomes in Winter, and would prefer to chat about the current and upcoming weather in a quieter, maybe less cold slanted discussion. If that's you, please head here: Current and future weather - nowcasting, models and teleconnections - early Winter Interested in teleconnections and their impacts? Head to the teleconnections discussion If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  13. The snow risk and prec type charts are back online now.
  14. Lol yeah bit of a data problem earlier, should be ok now though
  15. Sorry for quoting my own post, but just wanted to highlight what a good job the UKV did for today's forecast of a squall line along the front, some 100 or so hours out..
  16. There appears to be a bug in the UKV snow charts currently in that it's over-doing snow risks a bit - we're looking into it now and should get a fix in today, but in the meantime they've been taken out of the viewer.
  17. An impressive, sharp gradient cold front being shown by the UKV on Tuesday. Could be some wintriness on its trailing edge, and squalliness along the convergence line. If it plays out as forecast of course.
  18. Yep, afraid nothing can be done to unread it.
  19. The notion is pretty simple. Any outcome shown in FI is less likely to come off. That's why those who hang their hats on what it's showing end up being disappointed more often than not.
  20. 1. It's the 4th of the month, so you're probably a tad early to be declaring anything a bust. 2. If you want to go down the route of expecting the weather in Autumn to continue into Winter, you probably need to bear in mind where most of our weather has come from during the last few months - the Atlantic.
  21. Just as a reminder, we do have a new thread to look at the nowcasts, models and teleconnections minus the winter cold hunting rollercoaster ride. So, if that's for you please head over there:
  22. Thanks to everyone who has provided their feedback and voted in here, thanks too to @DiagonalRedLine for setting the thread up. We know it's going to be impossible to please everyone, but we've come up with a plan which may hopefully come close. The idea is to have three regular threads on the go throughout the winter. The first one, the model discussion as we have now - we obviously know that it mostly becomes a hunt for cold at this time of year, which is fine but the plan isn't to rename it or open it out to be as free as last year, as many people didn't enjoy that format. The second one is the Winter chat, moans and ramps thread. This is for those who maybe don't want to solely discuss the models and want a more free winter related discussion, where some off topic chat is ok. The third one is a new one. The Models, teleconnections and nowcasting thread is for those who want to discuss these aspects of the weather but want a quieter, less drama filled and less cold slanted environment than the model thread. We've opened up the remit to more than just the models as well, so nowcasts and teleconnections can also be discussed.
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