Jamesjane

I will take that from the UKMO

Bit too cold that, -812

40.7c

Here in Liverpool, nothing, I thought it was snowing before but it was just someone scratching their head

Love your posts mate, really do. Of pies and lager ... Keep scoffing my son BRILLIANT..KEEP IT UP MATE..

Unfortunately for snow lovers there's no chance of any widespread cold establishing in this mobile pattern so from that pov Winter does look like petering out on a disappointing note. Where is his crystal ball..mmm what will the weather be on the 15th june..im in Portugal then

I know what the 12z EC DET is and also the EPS..i suggest you re-read what i have written with regards to uncertainty mid week..

"great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week." Right..

I think Ian is actually saying the previous gfs run was a mild outlier..he also implies caution on potential longevity of the cold spell after mid week..

Yes obviously the MO have a lot more forecasting tools than we can see on here for example MOGREPS and GLOSEA5 but they also use the ECM and GFS and other input data from around the world..

Just a quick comment. .I first came across this site about 2 years ago.. i dont have any model reading background but i love to read all the more educated people on here. Its been wonderful and i personally wouldn't change it for anything..many thanks and keep up the great work..

fergieweather, on 25 Dec 2014 - 01:05, said: Happy Christmas all. As a final sign-off before indulgence tomorrow, I cite the UKMO Dep. Chief an hour ago, reference whatever you may read and/or assess into the future: "...confidence tapers off quickly toward the end of next week, and further changes in emphasis are possible in the coming days." Enjoy the festive period! john lets not be too hasty..if the MO are still struggling re boxing day (26th)..then this to me suggests that the experts are struggling..mild,cold, who knows..lets get one problem re boxing day low out the way before being too hasty..merry Christmas too one and all..

Im also a newbie..i just try to follow certain posters..maybe i could suggest Gibby for a totally Unbiased view..others include nick sussex, TEITS, steve murr and Tamara (i understand her even less) but its a good education.. Don't panic anyway regarding the easterly being touted..according to the BBC weather forecast, anything after boxing day is up for grabs..they still haven't got the incoming low pressure narrowed down to where it will eventually Depart from our little island.. Apologies to anybody i haven't included in my respected peer list as i know everyone on here is more learned than me..

move east in the first 10 days then return back towards Greenland/NE Canada afterwards. I am very new to model watching and am trying to learn all the time but how can one be 75% certain for a whole 10 days..surely even the MO cant do this..

[Where or when have you seen the METO forecast for our UK winter..just asking..because i would love to see it..for my locale,liverpool, the METO are suggesting a cooler start to winter than usual..please post a link with the METO forecast for winter, many thanks quote name=Jason M" post="3078250" timestamp="1417375124]Hmm, I'm going to dissent and say that I think the charts tonight are very poor really. The ECM 240 is very much in line with the picture being painted on most of the GEFS. I felt yesterday that there was a trend to pull the Azures high further west but this hasn't really been followed through today and the trend over the last 48 hours has been towards a flatter zonal flow. Of course things are different to last year in many ways but there are no signs of anything notably cold out towards mid month. the strat may change things down the line and it will be interesting to see what happens there, especially with METO suggesting the balance of probabilities lies with a warmer than average winter. I'm guessing they are not really factoring in the strat side of things yet. Jason

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-( Please Frosty keep the faith. .your enthusiasm has kept me going this winter in search of the cold weather. .don't give up now..

The black line is the 552 dam contour (of the 500 hPa surface) - highlighted as the approx. median value to trace major troughs/ridges in pattern.

Out and about in liverpool although still snowing seems to be melting faster..very slushy under foot, will be treacherous when it freezes though

Meto app now showing heavy snow all day Friday for us in liverpool and a maximum temp of 1c.. I will eat my hat if that verifies..

When people post comments like "it's snowing here or it's raining now" can they give us a general location please..btw moderate heavy rain here in liverpool.. And 5c so no chance of any snow here yet..