Jamesjane

I will take that from the UKMO

Bit too cold that, -812

40.7c

Here in Liverpool, nothing, I thought it was snowing before but it was just someone scratching their head

Love your posts mate, really do. Of pies and lager ... Keep scoffing my son BRILLIANT..KEEP IT UP MATE..

Unfortunately for snow lovers there's no chance of any widespread cold establishing in this mobile pattern so from that pov Winter does look like petering out on a disappointing note. Where is his crystal ball..mmm what will the weather be on the 15th june..im in Portugal then

I know what the 12z EC DET is and also the EPS..i suggest you re-read what i have written with regards to uncertainty mid week..

"great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week." Right..

I think Ian is actually saying the previous gfs run was a mild outlier..he also implies caution on potential longevity of the cold spell after mid week..

Yes obviously the MO have a lot more forecasting tools than we can see on here for example MOGREPS and GLOSEA5 but they also use the ECM and GFS and other input data from around the world..

Just a quick comment. .I first came across this site about 2 years ago.. i dont have any model reading background but i love to read all the more educated people on here. Its been wonderful and i personally wouldn't change it for anything..many thanks and keep up the great work..

fergieweather, on 25 Dec 2014 - 01:05, said: Happy Christmas all. As a final sign-off before indulgence tomorrow, I cite the UKMO Dep. Chief an hour ago, reference whatever you may read and/or assess into the future: "...confidence tapers off quickly toward the end of next week, and further changes in emphasis are possible in the coming days." Enjoy the festive period! john lets not be too hasty..if the MO are still struggling re boxing day (26th)..then this to me suggests that the experts are struggling..mild,cold, who knows..lets get one problem re boxing day low out the way before being too hasty..merry Christmas too one and all..

Im also a newbie..i just try to follow certain posters..maybe i could suggest Gibby for a totally Unbiased view..others include nick sussex, TEITS, steve murr and Tamara (i understand her even less) but its a good education.. Don't panic anyway regarding the easterly being touted..according to the BBC weather forecast, anything after boxing day is up for grabs..they still haven't got the incoming low pressure narrowed down to where it will eventually Depart from our little island.. Apologies to anybody i haven't included in my respected peer list as i know everyone on here is more learned than me..

move east in the first 10 days then return back towards Greenland/NE Canada afterwards. I am very new to model watching and am trying to learn all the time but how can one be 75% certain for a whole 10 days..surely even the MO cant do this..