Purga
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Posts posted by Purga
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A cool dry easterly with no teeth - could be worse I suppose but hardly exciting.
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Mike PooleOK - Bridport then! It's not going to happen anyway as we well know in this abysmal non-
winterspring
andymusic Mike Wantage from Poole told me.
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Blimey, it looks like Bournemouth's the place for snow!
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Looks like an early Spring for March or rather a merging of a dismal continuous autumn into spring. Winter was virtually absent,
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A month late
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A Bartlett by any other name would smell as foul
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Cool & a vague chance of the odd ground frost, as long as as you behave & have a good dollop of luck. Whoopee - not.
PS: Forgot to mention, we may get 16cm of snow next weekend - don't die laughing.
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Could get a tad breezy on the south coast
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Virtually zero cold runs at all for at least 10 days
Only a faint fantasy of a snow row at the far end of FI. You can bet your bottom dollar that'll soon disappear nearer the time.
It's wearing very thin hearing from some friends of mine in Finland, saying what a brilliant winter they're having. Not stop freeze virtually since November with many times below -20C for days on end & when it warms up it snows in buckets!
Anway, good luck to them 
- anyone fancy emigrating?
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The next 10 days is almost unanimously mild acc. to GFS 06z. Finishes about as zonal a set up as one could imagine.
Very cold air exiting North America's E Seaboard really firing up the jet.
I do admire those still hanging on in there with blind faith for something colder. The odd ground frost in favoured spots maybe?
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Cooling off a bit towards the end but mostly mild or very mild and non-descript. Looking forward to Spring after this abortion of a winter!
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Dennis Please can you share?
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Can we bear to be led up the garden path again?
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To be fair there is a lot of uncertainty (spread) within the latest GEFS dragging the mean down.
The mean chart for D10, as an illustration, shows a chance of a Scandi High is still vaguely on the table.
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Record breakingly mild February on the cards if GFS 00z were to verify. A few odd cold stragglers only.
Typical example below pretty much sums up the entire run!
ECM not a great deal better although the Russian High is 'slightly' more favourably placed for a coolish SE waft if we're very lucky.
PS: I seem to recall a year or two ago, when UKMET kept suggesting a cold February in their extended forecasts much like now. This was always being put back and we ended up record breakingly mild. Déjà vu ?
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St Valentine's Day massacre of NW coldies' dreams
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Alle - flamin - luia - always Mañana though...
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A slider Low and pressure high over Scandi and we still manage to get a ugly slug of mild - you couldn't make it up...
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There's a very nasty dollop of ultra mild uppers over the Low Countries though ICON 6z, so any easterly would be toothless to say the least. The Tulips will be bursting into flower !
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GFS is a diabolical mildfest this morning enthralled by U Barty but at least the Op is counter to the main ENS runs.
It's not without support and the Control also is in scheister mode towards the end.
Good that ECMWF have read the script at least this morning with UKMO not half bad.
To be fair, there is a lot of uncertaintity regarding the positioning of the incoming LP, especially in the north of the IK, which can make all the difference. As seen by the spread chart.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
RJBingham "not looking too bad" ? Depends what you're looking for. Snooze fest?