captaincroc

I was only thinking I hadn't seen you in the forum for a while Joe...then you post! haha. Fingers crossed for the next week or so. haha

I know this may sound very unscientific but also the short days and long nights I think actually help in marginal circumstances. For example on my birthday a few years ago (10th Dec) snow was moving in from the SW, I was living in Crewe at the time and it was snowing but wet and was struggling to stick...then as the light start to fade about 4pm the temp must have dropped ever so slightly but it just pushed the temps below 0 and it just started to stick. Plus with lower sun etc snow melt is less.

I was reading through the posts and about to reply the same thing but you have done it for me. I remember quite a few spells that started off being modelled at -4/-5 uppers to then creep lower -6/-7 nearer the time... If this gets locked in then i suspect the same.

Blue, put down your Daily Mail and pick up the Mulled Wine and come join me in Xmas dreaming...

Morning Daniel, I actually was going to reply with two points and you just made one for me. I am not hope casting but, like you, for me the ECM towards the latter stages looks wrong. Not just because the ridge is being flattened, but how the pressure looks around it. It looks like the models are struggling so, yes mild could come in but I have never seen such constantly confused models with this high pressure on the pole. Point 2...haha. I have been here many a year (as CreweCold will also know...) and I have never seen a genuine piece of the PV drop straight onto us. I have seen it sink south and have 'polar westerlys' which again has produced some wet snow (plenty of hill snow) but the PV still remained slightly to our north with gales etc. I have never seen it drop south with such cold upper and great thicknesses. If, and i mean, if it drops as per GFS then it would literally be a snowstorm wouldn't it? Something I have always questioned whether it could happen. Are there any more more 'mature' posters that know whether this has happened before?

This is my thoughts too. I have never seen such consistent attempts for the Atlantic to move in to kinda get in...but then disrupt in a few days later....then rinse repeat. Normally they battle to get in, but once in then normal patterns resume. It's just the constant disrupting that is just baffling (in a good way). I still think things might happen sooner than we think...

Yes, plus look at in 6 hours (from the last run) a fully developed low has just disappeared from view. Just shows the massive differences at such a short range.

I think the spirit of Sheiky is still with me.... Sharper slider/attack on the 18z Icon 12z 18z

Well *clutches nearest straw*, if that is the supposed new version of the GFS then this could be a good thing, right?

As Sheiky isn't here... At 105hr the Icon 6z is looking better with more heights to our N and NE. 0z 6z

I'm not hopecasting here but a couple of days ago it looked like the Atlantic was coming back, with different models at some points showing a westerly regime taking hold... Now, yes there isn't much deep cold about but at one point last week we would have killed for all three 144hr charts to look like this... Yes after that it does go t*ts up but we are told many times the models don't like unusual synoptics... and this is that. Would take much of a tweak for more energy to go south in the jet and change everything completely. Only 24 hours ago the GFS has a balloon low, where now has a slider...same with MetO 144hr chart a day or so ago, now they all slide. With all those changes, I am not throwing in the towel just yet.

Maaaate! Good to see you too. The elevation has been a godsend the past few years. Wet 'non sticking' snow in Crewe means sticking up here, a few times I have spoke to the folks back home and then say it's only sleeting/wet etc. A defo brew would be nice if you're up for it! haha. Yeah back..don't know why I do it? I agree, I've spotted it for a while...kept expecting it to be flushed away but kept creeping back..then these next few days have an essence of it (weak heights Sun-Weds...then if the ECM is correct then it properly nudges in.

For me, I cannot remember a Scandi/Russian high be so persistent. Normally a bubble of high pressure might start in Scandi but then sink into Eastern Europe etc...but for what seems like weeks it just keeps coming back. ...and I don't want to tempt fate but I actually think it heads a bit more west each time.

Yeah, weird if that is so, especially as it is heavy rain/sleet? So not even evaporative cooling helping? Well glad some are enjoying it. haha

I'm up at 180m and just sleet here? Must be in a warmer sector down here.

All the models seem to agree on rain/snowfall today. Things will be falling from the sky today...some models predict quite a lot...fingers crossed it's the frozen stuff.

Hmm, I think the 25cm chart from actually from the ECM (correct me if wrong), hardly esoteric and obscure. I love this forum but can we just have a discussion without a plethora of slightly condescending posts when the charts backtrack or change. Just let us enjoy our fun.

I agree, we're just discussing the options. I think sometimes the 'I don't know why people are ramping' posts are like speaking about someone behind their back but loud enough for them to hear. The 'ramping' was just discussing what the charts showed (e.g the 25cm depths etc...) as 'ridiculous' as they were they were there...so worth a discussion.

These are the charts I was looking to see...the models starting to collate the heights to our north west in a slightly more coherent manner. Yes, no bright yellows but the tilt is SE which will only help grow the blocking above. Yes, it might not show it now but as we're told my the experts, the models don't like 'unnormal' charts so I'm not too worried. Truth be told, I just love a festive feeling xmas. I would rather snow in Nov/Dec that Jan/Feb...as the days are short and sun weak so snow melt is generally less. This setup however mundane some are saying it will be will defo bring frost, some snow...but definitely a much deserved xmas feel we need. Bring whatever on...even if I just get some frost I will be happy.

To be honest, I know most are looking for -10 uppers and a cracking freeze (myself included!) but I'm just so looking forward to a seasonal, Christmas feel this week...something we haven't had for many years. In regards to the charts this morning, most look odd to me in their later charts. I think they are trying to figure out this rare setup or slack pressure after the initial low dives and fills.

I was meaning that they still don't know what it's going to do... I will keep quiet! haha

Shows there is still wiggle room.

Yeah, fair point. What will be will be, I made peace yesterday that it was off! haha. Any flakes falling from the sky are a bonus.

Cool. Just check the Euro4 9am chart and the band is even further north than that forecast,

The band is definitely further north than Arpege has got for 9am? #Straws but better than being further south.