StretfordEnd1996

Well I've been awake for about 90 minutes and already seen a bit of a mix so far - woke up to a dull cloudy start but 5 minutes later when I stepped outside to get into my car sunshine was trying to break through. Rain soon arrived on my journey and now here in Leigh I arrived to mostly blue skies ... yet a peak out the window and it's now dull and cloudy again and looks like it may start to rain.. That said the radar for the majority of the NW is looking clear for now but I expect precipitation for most in the form of showers throughout the day

While I don't think the GFS is the best when it comes to precipitation the 12z is nonetheless showing a relatively dry Bank Holiday weekend for a large part of the country away from the far North of Scotland. So maybe not the best outlook if you live up there. But there's still what looks like showery spots for the rest of the country too and it's clear rain isn't overly far away. At this stage - perhaps we can say - looking dry for most but not with a huge amount of confidence?

Yep absolutely - the Atlantic just hasn't been lively at all in recent times has it. That's nothing too unusual of course we've had plenty of periods like this in the past where this has been the case but. If it continues into the Autumn and the back end of the year it'd possibly bring some varied results, in terms of temperatures but as for rainfall.. probably dry Still - straw clutching a bit but it doesn't take much in the Autumn (even largely settled and dry Autumns) for the Atlantic to at least just open its doors a little bit to hopefully bring a huge wash out across the country even if just for a week or two as we badly need it.

Yeah definitely agree tends to not be much going on.. certainly the month which has the least chance of Autumnal weather which is ironic given how it's the first month of the Autumn

Hence why I said we still have 3-4 weeks of potential heat. I agree with you fully I've had enough of the heat now haha it's time for something else to be thrown into the mix!!

Still a good 3-4 weeks IMO for the chance of some strong heat to arrive to our shores in my opinion. Once you get past 3rd week or so in September any heat is usually a bit more bearable but not always the case.

Op is somewhat on the colder side of things as far as the uppers go to compared to the rest of the suit If anything some very warm members showing up in there -

I wake up at around 6am but don't really draw open the blinds until 7am. This morning I woke up early to go to the loo at around 5:40 and it wasn't fully daylight yet. Losing 4 minutes of daylight a day, I think, at this time of year.

Wake Me Up When September Ends of course

Oooh my paper round was from around March 2009 to January 2011 - frozen cold hands I know the feeling all too well!

I'm trying to find some lovely looking early taste of Autumn charts from the GFS or ECM or similar but in all honestly I'm struggling. Autumn may be 17 days away - I'm extremely unconfident that September 1st will be anything like the way of Autumnal weather!

Give it just a month then it'll be dark when I get up at 6am Comes round so quick

And they're only getting shorter - we're losing what 4-5 minutes or so of light at the moment? Will be waking up in the dark soon (what time does it actually get light at the moment?)

Thanks for this sphere, much appreciated

We're just about hanging on aren't we to the lush stuff

There's been a lot of talk recently in local media about the low reservoirs - while they are definitely very low I've seen them lower. Dovies (as us locals call it - meaning Dovestones of course)! Does appear to be one of the lowest at the moment for whatever reason but plenty of other ressies around the area are still have a relatively okayish amount of wet in them albeit they are much lower than normal. As I've said though I'm sure I've seen them all lower in the past.

Yes crazy period without question. Had no idea until now this period was like this..

Thanks very much for this informative post. I did post something similar a few months back further up the forum but mine was just a bit of an 'unofficial' quick desktop survey. There's an interesting run of consistent Novembers in there.. If you don't mind me asking. Is there anywhere I can get this Nino information from re. Nino episodes prior to 1950 - 1950 and after are easy to find online but I take it you may know somewhere that has this information.

Suppose there had to be a much warmer than average month at some point otherwise if December were anything like February, April August and September it could well of been one of the coldest years on record..!

1986 CET's () = vs 1981-2010 Jan 3.5 (-1.1) Feb -1.1 (-5.7) March 4.9 (-1.6) Apr 5.8 (-2.6) May 11.1 (-0.3) Jun 14.8 (+0.7) Jul 15.9 (-0.5) Aug 13.7 (-2.5) Sept 11.3 (-2.7) Oct 11.0 (+0.4) Nov 7.8 (+0.5) Dec 6.2 (+1.5) Year 8.81 (-1.09) No year since colder than that. 2010 comes close (8.86) Edit - perhaps appropriately enough in the legacy CET series, 1986 is the 86th coldest year on record.. (as usual out of 364 of course).

Yes fully agree, perhaps I was a bit OTT there I'd just love an Autumn that has a large degree of changeability and a bit of everything, I feel recent ones have just been a bit monotone. Dull and boring

Ha yes well - On deeper thoughts I wouldn't be somewhat surprised if we don't see another sub 10.0'C CET Autumn in my life time but hey who knows.

Yes absolutely I forget that this period in general was generally of a cooler one - be interesting to know if any of those other months you mentioned are in the top 15 coldest CET too for their respective months - I know February 1986 is one. Edit, just checked - Feb 1986 is the 6th coldest Feb on record (-1.1), April is the 20th coldest on record (5.8), August ranked 17th (13.7) and then September as I've mentioned. Had no idea about this - I just drilled down into September without checking or thinking about the rest of the year!

yes very interesting and it's extremely rare if not unheard of to see somewhere up here such as Manchester Airport to so get consistently +30'C temps for 5 days+ in a row

So one thing I came across recently is September 1986 with a CET of 11.3'C is the 15th coldest September on record. Since it's relatively recent and perhaps some members on here may remember it what were your memories. (I'm too young..) Was it really as chilly as the stats suggest. These uppers (of below 0'C) were brought in from HP sitting to the W/NW of us and these seem to have persisted from almost the first day of the month almost until the 20th - so almost 2/3rds of the month was under this general flow. -5'C isotherm flirts with Northern Scotland a few times too.