StretfordEnd1996

I'm not entirely sure if I agree with this - 'the odd shower' specifically .. I think we have some more longer spells of rain coming up. This chart below is never fully accurate but paints a bit of a picture on what to expect - rainfall total by Sunday. Even when it may not be raining it looks to be mostly cloudy/dull at times rather than in the way of sun.. Thursday is looking the best day for some decent sunny weather especially PM but I do think the general pattern this week will be one of a duller picture with rain never far away The model thread I don't think has been all doom and gloom at all - many southern members have made it known that they look to be avoiding anything particularly unsettled this week!

17.8 please An averagish start but second half of the month will be more settled and it takes absolutely nothing these days for a hot plume to shoot up from the south bringing near 20'c uppers - this'll erase any average CET up until that point

Absolutely! Today effectively day 0 of this more unsettled spell slowly conveying itself into the British Isles - an unsettled spell which may well take a while to get going the further south you go and we are yet to know how long it lasts, but my inkling is that beyond the weekend into next week most of the country will turn much more unsettled - for a time anyway.

It's easy to forget sometimes that pleasant days are not actually hard to come by sometimes in Summer even in cooler unsettled spells - as long as the skies are clear for an afternoon or what have you then no matter the temperature or the wind direction or what type of pattern we're in - if the sun's out then it'll feel more than pleasant.

Thank you as ever for posting these charts, the bottom two charts in particular I am not sure if I can access these myself so it's always helpful when you provide them as I consider them one of the best pointers for the sort of 5-15 day time frame. A fair few of recent posts have focused on more southern areas of the country and the possibility of retaining some decent weather in what looks to be an otherwise broadly unsettled pattern. But speaking as someone from the NW I'm certainly more in the firing line for upcoming unsettled spells in from the N and W and I'm looking forward to a relatively generally unsettled week. These ensembles reflect this Uppers slightly up and down to begin with but thereafter largely cooler than average with frequent enough rainfall The south and east of the country always more likely to hold on to some more settled and finer weather, that's always been the case and is just the nature of this pattern but as the charts Mushy posted show, going into next week which I appreciate is a long way away I feel all areas may turn more unsettled for a time. It's just Southern areas it may just take a bit more time to get going

Apologies late reply but here are a few years that stand out to me - can't remember the entire decade due to my age but here are a few favourite to least - 2009 - a lot of others have put this one near the top. All three Winter months Jan, Feb, Dec were extremely wintry. Summer very mixed and average but contained some hotter spells. Autumn also a nice mix - a settled September, November extremely wet. 2006 - Winter months brought a bit of something as did March (12th?) Severe drifting. Summer extremely hot and after tapering off in August re-energized in September 2003 - akin to 2006 in some ways And for the more least favourable years 2008 - Forgettable Summer but as someone else touched upon, I think 7 months of this year I saw snow falling. (Jan, Feb, March, April, October, November, December). Albeit Jan, Oct and Nov was just a very brief fall but it's still some stat 7 months. 2007 - Nasty year, horrid Summer, forgettable Winter.. just April warmth that stands out

It feels very cold outside this evening. 3-4'C at the moment but feels much colder. Temps may flirt with 0'C overnight and maybe a touch of frost - wonder if this could be the last frost for me until later this year?

I've always considered March (earlier March the better) to be more snow/cold reliable than the Winter month of December. Cold spells/snaps at this time of year in March just always seem to have a bit of needle/bite about them as well. Isn't there some historic average that says a White Easter is more common than a White Christmas? (of course Easter moves every year, but this is taking in a long term average). Heard this a few times not sure if it's a myth or not.

Let's not forget we're already almost half way through the month though and we're already -1.5 on the CET. May still take a bit to shift that back to above average The same model you posted was relatively cool/cold for the mean just a few days back, it's not a guaranteed fixture IMO. Chopping and changing at the moment

There's a few that stick out in my location 16th April 2005 - snow showers bring accumulations of around 2-4cm 6th(?) April 2008 - similar scenario 3rd-5th April 2012 - some balmy accumulations for me for the time of year (specifically on the hills around me) with drifting and Pennine routes closed. This barely a week after mild sunny weather. 29th April 2016 - ridiculously late in the month but I woke up to a thin covering that did cause some issues on higher routes around rush hour. 2021 - cool April in general and I can't remember the date but we did get a few hours of snowfall one morning AM bringing some temporary accumulations even to lower levels. ^nr Oldham 280m asl 4th April 2012

Your location Audenshaw is only 7-8 miles from me I've always found it so strange how just 100m or so lower can make such a big difference to snow accumulation. As for thunderstorms while I like them I gave up on them many moons ago. We're in a rubbish location up here for high thunderstorm activity and when they happen they are so short lived anyway. Not only that they are an absolute pain in the backside to forecast - 10x worse than snowfall - they just never seem to come off when they are supposed to or when we've been advised they may happen!

No pics from me but a slight dusting on the hills around me (200m+ or so) and very frosty this morning. Similar picture yesterday morning too. Also of note is the huge snow patches/piles from last week are still around in their masses on the hills above dotted about. Had a bit of snow fall here to lower levels for a time yesterday, as expected without accumulation. Be interesting to see if that's the last 'dusting' or fall that we get in the NW this time round until Nov/Dec this year (or beyond !) or whether the recent cold chilly weather is a sign of things to come for the next month or so with a chance of further cold snaps into April. April can be such a different month weather wise year to year.

Same goes for the rest of 1986. Did a post early last year on it, it was such a cold year, think it's within the top 25 or so coldest years CET wise. Nothing like it since!

As far as I can recall I think Feb 1986 for all it's incredible CET was largely dry and snow totals weren't as high as you may assume they would be with a CET of -1.1. December 2010 was somewhat akin to that in my location too in that it was freezing but very dry (although, the huge fall of snow fell on November 30th, if memory serves me well. Bit sketchy).

Still don't think this feature tomorrow afternoon into the evening will lead to any accumulations though in all honesty. I think the chart you are showing is trying to produce more showery weather rather than longer spells, and I just think at that time of day the temps will just be a bit high for snow to stick. On second glance the chart you have posted is a total snowfall chart regardless of depth or not from hour 0 (i.e. the start of the run) and doesn't take any consideration of how daytime temps would thaw any cover overnight tonight. This chart from the same model validates that - live snow depth for tomorrow evening.

I think plenty of areas will see some fairly hefty wintry showers tomorrow it has that sort of feel to it whereby even though it may be 3-5'C widely I think heavier showers may produce some big wet flakes. Nothing too notable though in terms of the accumulations - but some areas if you're very lucky a big heavy shower for 10-20 mins for example may give a temporary coating until it moves on and thaws. But I do think tomorrow's showers across the region will be more wintry/sleet/snow rather than just boring plain old rain. These types of northerly shots in Spring has that type of feel to it.

No idea what Summer's going to bring overall, but, as with every Summer in this day and age (certainly within the last 10 years or so) to achieve 2-3 days of widespread sunshine and heat of over 30'C generally nationwide is just so so common these days, you just need a gentle nudge winds up from the South and the whole country is coated with those hot uppers. I expect nothing different this Summer, but quite how many times we will get this I'm not sure. While I colder than average/wetter than average Summer feels overdue I don't feel we can get that these days

In my lifetime the April's containing wintry conditions that come to mind for me as far as the NW goes are 2021 (recent one so I'm sure a lot will remember this) - 2016, which featured the latest snow event into the year I've seen, 29th April 2012, early April - some of the snow totals above 200m or so in my area were pretty balmy for the time of year in this one including drifts 2008, cold with some snow early in the month although I think most of the snow (unusually for the time of year) fell down south 2006, around 7th-9th frequent wintry showers in the North bringing accumulations for some (M62 closed for a short time) 2005, a late snap in this one as we had snow on the 16th All of the above are usually blink and you'll miss it type cold snaps especially as lying snow often melts by lunchtime at this time of year but there have been some notable ones. I love the month to be honest because in contrast to the above we've seen some that are so pleasant to sit outside in in t-shirt and shorts. 2007. 2011. 2020 etc.

Yes this is fair enough. I suppose my stance is I never really take much note of these snow precipitation charts until 24-48 hours at the most before the event as I just don't think they're reliable enough for most occasions. They just give something of a rough guide.

Yes that's often the case and one of the points I was trying to make in my previous post - the band of rain/sleet/snow overnight just looks a little soft IMO and any accumulations will be hard to come by away from the usual areas. You really need something heavy and constant exactly like we saw last week.

Not so sure about this - purely because I never saw anything notable for lower levels in the first place IMO(?) Certainly nothing with any consistency anyway.. Next 24 hours or so always just a case of spotty showers with occasional longer spells of rain (especially in the early hours tomorrow morning) which may turn wintry overnight but the system is nothing notable and all looks to have run through by dawn, perhaps a slight accumulation above 250m or so on the higher hills? Spotty wintry showers follow in thereafter during the daytime tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised if these fall as sleet and snow in some of the heavier bursts but they are infrequent and ground temps just too high (3-5'C widely) for any accumulation. It'll feel chilly though that's for sure ... I think perhaps the system you were referring to when you say 'downgraded' is what was a potential snow to rain event later on Wed into Thurs - which now looks to be mostly just rain. Milder air post Wednesday always looked to win this battle anyway - This MO view for the early hours paints a good picture for what we can expect. Rain sleet and snow moving through but it's somewhat light in nature and moves through quite quickly too (following a heavier band earlier on today).

A sight we've not seen much of recently - Slightly chillier times but will any kind of heat return in a vengeance? An educated guess says maybe.. Still relatively mildish in the daytime though

Bit of a more Autumnal feel this morning when I woke up at around 6 - Still darkish and very dull and wet on the ground temperatures hovering around 10'C though I think the majority if not all of our region stayed in double figures overnight. As soon as I set off for work though on my journey the skies showed signs of clearing up. But now here in work outside its a tad grey and dull again.. No rain in sight on the immediate radar, for me anyway. .

Marked difference in the uppers in the models this morning for early next week ECM +144 GFS Caused by different positions and tenacity/intensity of the low to our SW around that timeframe

My day was very similar too even though I'm on the other side of the region from you. The downpour in the morning at work was a bit shortlived though. Huge torrential downpour closer to home at the gym around 19:00. My Gym is sort of an old converted mill and the roof isn't exactly amazing and the rain was so heavy I thought it was about to cave in.