StretfordEnd1996

Woke up this morning it was somewhat dry, then it poured down via sharp heavy showers on way to work. ? Since then it's been somewhat cloudy and overcast with limited sunshine, but walking to the shop it's just absolutely pelted it down again. Latest radar - most showers have been centred to the east of the region so far but not exclusively so Shower threat will continue for the rest of the afternoon - as ever with showers, some will probably stay mostly dry, some will catch almost all of them.

Yes and reading that it's been nothing like that up here - I've barely had a decent chance to sit outside in the garden on the weekends or after work bar maybe one or two days.

Haha yes typical isn't it - although thankfully for my region anyway these clear spells did begin yesterday late morning and have persisted since, and by the looks of things will continue to do so for the rest of today and into tomorrow (where the threat of showers heightens). Just goes to show that even in generally unsettled spells or poor summer months (well, poor summer month so far), it's never impossible to "fluke" a day or two of pleasant spells with sunshine, and no matter what the temperatures are if the suns out it will feel warm, making a nice reprieve (albeit, as it is a poor summer month, the next deluge is imminent come weekend). There's definitely been some large regional variations this month from what I can gather in this forum. It appears as though there's been a slight NW/SE split - although someone did post some statistics which didn't necessarily back this up fully. Still, by nature, I feel it's been cooler and wetter up here in the NW vs down towards the S and E - with exceptions. But that's all very common of course.

Lovely afternoon yesterday - temps far from decent but when the sun was out shining away from the clouds it felt more than mild/warm .. Same again today I am hoping but the odd shower cannot be ruled out .. Tomorrow was looking dryish but looks like it could be mostly showery now with sunshine hard to come by

Ahh thank you I appreciate you sending over these links.

Yes I must admit, when I got home from work yesterday, the rain was still coming down and if I'm being truly honest, I don't think I've ever felt it as dull, cold and wet in July as it did then (especially at that time of day, about 16:00). I had one thin layer on which wasn't enough!

There have been more organised and heavier showers over night to towards Yorkshire and the NE which I suspected may catch to the east of our region too. I was correct - this morning when I set off it was again very dull, gloomy, and it was raining not for the first time this week. But as expected now in work things look a tad brighter - these showers to the east of our region will continue throughout the morning and again far eastern areas of the NW may catch a few of them but overall for most of us, dry, brighter and sunnier weather shouldn't be too hard to come by today, which makes a nice change. Thurs/Fri - I originally thought both days would be mostly dry with a low threat of notable showers .. that's still partly the case but another look at the charts and forecasts this morning we may all see a few spotty showers on these days especially Friday for a time, albeit again brighter and sunnier weather should also be present for most. Still looking pretty wet Saturday with a large organised band of rain.

Yes its been a little awful hasn't it. I'll await until the last week or so of July to try and work out where it ranks in my experiences. It's still only 18th and I have optimism that we may see an improvement within the last week or so towards settled weather - and these days, that can so often mean a very hot plume up from the south. But that's all clutching at straws of course - but there is still time. I say this because poor July's (as in very poor July's - "one of the worst" as you termed it") don't tend to have 5-7 days of settled fine weather, should that occur towards the end of the month. It most likely won't, but it's too early in the month for me to made a judgement. Secondly, while this month has been generally unsettled so far, I wouldn't go as far as saying it's been a complete total washout. But that may just be me - the stats by the end of the month may contradict that. It's been unsettled of course, and I am struggling to remember any time sat outside in the garden I've been able to have, but to me it's not been a washout. I have a feeling though come the end of the month it may well rank pretty low within the July's of the last 10-20 years or so in terms of sunshine totals, temps, high rainfall etc just have to wait and see.

Here we go then - not for the first time this July we're in for a good 3-4 hours possibly more of rain encompassing almost all of the region Main band of longer spells of rain will move through by the early evening but thereafter remains heavy and frequent showers until well into the evening. Drier Wed/Thurs/Fri though still with the threat of isolated showers

I've been unable to locate QBO data for prior to the 1960s/70s I wouldn't be surprised if there is no record or historical data of this anywhere though someone may want to correct me. With that in mind - there are only two periods in the last 50-60 or so years that match (or go near to) a strong El Nino along with a strong stable eQBO - 1991-92 and 2009-10. El Nino in 1991-92 was a touch stronger than 2009-10 although in all honestly I don't know if they can be classed as 'strong'. Perhaps more on the moderate side. Other years which had a combination of El Nino and eQBO albeit, not of strong bases (in contrast to as above), are 1986-87, and 2014-15 - the latter of which only just reached the threshold of qualifying as an El Nino event (before towards 15-16 it increased dramatically in strength). As said I cannot find any data particularly for QBO prior to 70sish

I'm in Oldham too but I have seen some very heavy rain in the last month or so, with thunder at times.

I suppose in a way isn't Autumn a season that lasts from September to February anyway these days it seems that way anyway .. I've always had an odd belief that sometimes it feels meteorological seasons should be shifted forward by one month, Autumn is a good example - September often boasts summer type weather as summer does it's best to cling on and Autumnal weather still seems far away - whereby going well into December it often feels very Autumnal with wet, cool (but not cold) windy weather.

I don't see how this really relates to Autumn? Autumn seems a long way off but it may come round quick and the weather recently has done little to keep Autumn devoid out of my mind. What are everyone's Autumn preferences? It's such a varied season with a huge mix of possibilities. I do enjoy some decent settled September weather. It's often quite a common thing these days and it tends not to be too hot either during settled spells in September (by nature, though with some exceptions). Makes it comfortable and good for doing stuff outdoors. By October I'm half willing some decent Autumnal weather to arrive though. Mists, dew on grass in morning, unsettled windy spells etc. of course these aren't pleasant to be outside in but by this time the nights are drawing in and it's nice to be cosy at home when it's wet and cold outside! On more rare occasions I've seem some much cooler weather by October with some sharp frosts and temperatures overnight below freezing. October can of course still produce some very pleasant settled, almost Summer like weather but when this happens I sometimes feel it doesn't seem 'right'. Novembers are then often grim and wet with gales. Some Novembers have seen some very mild temperatures recently but by the very end of the month I'm half wishing for something wintry to take us into December, albeit that's also a rarity.

I would admit with the tenacity of these showers this morning you expect this to be reflected in the BBC forecast summary. These aren't 'a few showers' - they are so far very frequent and beyond torrential!

Showers this morning so far haven't affected all areas but certainly have for me at both home and work - when I left home at around 07:00 this morning it was as dull, wet and gloomy of a morning you'd ever see in Summer. It looked so dark, everyone had their headlights on, the daylight through the bedroom window was not sufficient enough for me to get ready without the big light on akin to Autumn time. Some of these showers are torrential. Light at the end of the tunnel though, in a way - this afternoon it should dry up for most of us and may even lead to some sunny spells. And while Tuesday and part of Wednesday look showery and somewhat unsettled, Thurs/Fri look better with a good chance of sunny spells - as ever in the UK, cooler than average temperatures in Summer would still mean if the suns out it will feel absolutely fine and mostly warm. But the weekend looks less promising albeit it's a way off. Edit - a second after I posted this there was a big lightning flash and loud rumble of thunder. It's absolutely bouncing down.

That seems a little at odds to the Met Office's short range summary just updated this morning - at least for my area anyway - "Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Plenty of dry weather to end the week with sunny spells and a few showers. Breezy at first but winds becoming generally light. Feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine" Okay I admit I took it quite literally lol but no doubt even in generally unsettled spells in Summer time in the UK, if you manage just an afternoon of sunny spells no matter what the temperature is it will most definitely feel warm even hot if the sun's right at you. I acknowledge your post probably refers to long, genuine hot spells in general though.

Must be a year ending in 3 thing. Hmm that's got me thinking.

13-14 for me a similar story, although I think I got a small sprinkling sometime in February, though I have it as my most snow free Winter in my memory in my otherwise relatively decent location for snowfall.. Many then say 15-16 was a virtually identical experience and I'd absolutely agree albeit for me January brought a slightly less onslaught with a bit of winty weather. But both were absolute monstrosities of a season, overall. December 2015 saw flooding around me that I've not seen the likes of before or since (November 2009 being close). I'd agree with these as well - although one thing I admit to, and I don't know if anyone else has this, but any months during the pandemic times weather wise all seem a bit of a blur to me compared to my usually excellent memory!

Showers I believe were, on the whole hit and miss today but were slightly more organised in central/southern areas of the NW i.e Merseyside through Cheshire and towards Greater Manchester. At work they were isolated but eventually turned pretty beefy and frequent mid afternoon-ish, potentially ruining anyone doing outdoor activities. Tomorrow a similar picture, Thursday especially PM looking the best bet for a dry and warm (in the sun) day.. before some more wet, maybe very wet weather for the majority of the region Fri-Sun.

Yes the one that sprang to my mind which the original poster didn't mention was also November 2009 - extremely wet from what I recall, the perfect definition of a washout.

Thanks for sharing. This would of contributed towards a somewhat cool CET for July 1993 of 15.1 .. As you say 1993 a year of two halves with July being the change point - Aug 14.6, Sept 12.3, Oct 8.3, Nov 4.5. All months before July were warmer than the 61-90 average I believe. Dec a bit of an exception as you stated to this trend with a CET of 5.3. Not sure if there are any other years that have such a pronounced split like this whereby the first half was relatively consistently milder than average, in complete contrast to the second half (or vice versa) ..

It's absolutely bellowing it down here in the NW as per screenshot below. From Manchester, to Liverpool, to Blackpool, to Burnley - all across my region .. feels chilly, it's soaking, its grey, its dull .. could easily belong in November!

Yesterday morning/lunchtime for a time when I was outside felt like some of the most dismal July weather I've experienced for a long time. The temperatures were about 5-7'C below average widely Happily towards afternoon and evening it brightened up but still felt on the cool side. Today I'm expecting a large portion of the NW to stay dryish but again much cooler than average for most, Brightening up though and Friday may well be a decent day for most with temps a touch above average and plenty of sunny spells

Last one would of been around 2014 through to 2015. EQBO began around June 2014, and persisted until around June 2015. El Nino conditions began around Fall 2014 and persisted for the duration of the EQBO, but this El Nino was very weak (eventually strengthening considerably after the EQBO). Prior to this, we had an EQBO from around June 2009 to July 2010, which coincided with a relatively moderate El Nino which persisted throughout a similar timeframe. And the one before this you then have to go back to 1991-1992 - which was very akin to 2009-2010 in terms of start/end dates of both the EQBO and El Nino conditions. 86ish to-87 similar

I think mid 17 to mid 18 and mid 21 to mid 22 had EQBOs but I'm guessing the point (I think) you're making is that both of these came off the back of strange prolonged WQBOs (as was the case in 2017) or EQBO which never got going followed by a quick WQBO (2021).