StretfordEnd1996

These temperatures next week will feel balmy But as HP has more of an influence, it may not be a full week of mild-fest temperatures than it may initially seem - cooler at night in less than a weeks time Sat 27th dawn - frosty morning potentially That's thanks to this build of HP over the country So Sun-Thurs, very mild and wet no doubt. Back end of next week it settles down and with that comes more average temperatures. It goes to show how HP can often present uppers with contrasting ground temps - at least for a time .. this example (into FI now admittedly) Same chart ground temps Where does the HP go from here, one may ask. Who knows. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5017723

These temperatures next week will feel balmy But as HP has more of an influence, it may not be a full week of mild-fest temperatures than it may initially seem - cooler at night in less than a weeks time Sat 27th dawn - frosty morning potentially That's thanks to this build of HP over the country So Sun-Thurs, very mild and wet no doubt. Back end of next week it settles down and with that comes more average temperatures. It goes to show how HP can often present uppers with contrasting ground temps - at least for a time .. this example (into FI now admittedly) Same chart ground temps Where does the HP go from here, one may ask. Who knows.

Depends what you define as 'Winterless' I suppose - I'm sure Sheffield has experienced some freeezing weather just like the rest of us recently, albeit I suspect your dissatisfaction is at the lack of snowfall(?) It is interesting how we're separated by just 20 miles but you didn't get much - those Pennines act as a shield don't they. (It works the other way round too of course - yorks gets a coating but doesn't make it over to my side!)

I've enjoyed this recent cold snap/spell (however you want to define it) albeit I understand a large portion of the UK certainly away from Scotland, NI and NW England have been deprived of any meaningful snowfall. But there is one think that has irked me.. The 1-6cm ish or so that fell widely across the NW England region on Tuesday morning has mostly melted (it did so later on Tuesday as temps rose and stayed above freezing throughout much of the afternoon and evening) although my area 200m+ above sea level has happily retained most of the thin cover we received, and it looks so pretty with a combination of thin snow cover, ice and frost, with the sun yesterday making it look artic-like. (The icy conditions have made some local roads absolutely horrific to drive on - some of the worst driving conditions I've ever seen from just a thin coating of snow). But while we received a little bit of snowfall, the annoying thing is we didn't get anything significant - and it is akin to the cold spell we received late November whereby, it was so cold and frosty and at face value it had so much potential - but we just never seemed to receive a direct hit of heavy snow showers or longer spells of snowfall which my area so often receives in years gone by. Is this something we're seeing more of in the UK in recent times? Cold snaps but with a lack of precipitation compared to what we can often receive? It's hard to say I think we may of just been unlucky. I shouldn't be too upset - of course it was less than a year (March 2023) when we received 10-15cm of snowfall overnight, but this I recall was the largest fall I have had since March 2018. Just seems to be the cold snaps in recent times, however potent or brief, its a painful chase precipitation wise. It just feels so dry. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, during the milder winters we always still got something of note i.e. a brief Northerly incursion and it would so often bring a fall of 5cm minimal in my area. Then again what would you rather chase - a wide area of precipitation but with temperatures on the borderline with it possibly falling as sleet or rain, or would you rather it be very very cold (well below freezing) but just a smattering of pink on the precip models? It seems to be either or these days!

That's when it comes to specifically precipitation though - and it's always been that case. Even day/night before is sometimes tricky - that large band of snow in the NW of England yesterday morning was showing up as just spotty showers of no real organisation in the models (well, most of them) just 6 hours before - yet on the morning itself they all merged together to form a longer spell of snowfall for the majority of the region. The general synoptics and the general pattern and the like can sometimes be reliable enough 5-10 days out.

Is it? Struggling to see a "northerly of sorts" on 18z unless I'm mistaken in the time frame you reference

Still looking pretty cool, even cold (depending on your definition of the terms) back end of next week around D7-D10 both immediately before the high evolves over the top of us and during; Overnight mins Daytime maxes even look relatively chilly Bone dry as you would expect Uppers above 0'C but apparently doing little to warm things up

Yes both immediately before the high is over the top of us (where it forms something of a weak Atlantic ridge very briefly) and during it being over the top of us - Daytime temps also look on the cool side under this higher pressure I'd therefore say at this stage, in terms of surface temps there appears little in the way of mild from around D7 onwards for the most part, into the following week.

It's not necessarily - those are 0z, the chart Ali posted is the 6z Whichever way though, outlier or not it's fair to say at this stage it looks relatively brief - Let's see where it lies within the 6z ensembles. Still looks all so chilly though for a time

Wouldn't of thought the vast majority are looking for "deep, long lasting cold" though at the moment - considering it's 17th November and winter is over 2 weeks away, with the depths of the middle of winter well over 6 weeks away. TSNWK's enthusiasm for the current model output stems from what looks like a potential colder incursion from the N/NW later on next week - for someone who clearly likes colder weather then this type of pattern in November is just a little bonus really! Still a lot to firm up but what we do know is it doesn't look hugely noteworthy and it may be a brief affair. What happens there after going into the end of the month and start of December is unknown but I wouldn't be surprised if these patterns repeat a couple of times in the next 2-3 weeks or so. Yes high ground in the north potentially - though I think initially it may be overall relatively dry. As someone who lives in a somewhat favoured location for these NWly type incursions - they can be frustrating as you're not only chasing precipitation and spotty (wintry) showers, you're also keeping an eye on whether the temperature is low enough. There's half a chance but I think any snowfall lying may be limited to the "highest" ground rather than "high" ground at the moment things can change. These ensembles for my location for the first time have somewhat good agreement for something of a more colder note next weekend - prior to today they weren't showing this level of consistency. All the above is of course fairly normal and routine for the end of November - a mostly westerly pattern but with the potential for colder incursions at times - though it doesn't happen every year and it's nice to see the absence of raging mild S/SWly winds or some sort of "euroslug high" (or whatever people call it!) which often just leave the atmosphere in this forum deflated. We're not seeing those types of patterns at the moment - and with that always provides potential for something a little on the cooler side with cooler incursions from a NWly type source in an otherwise mobile pattern - albeit often brief in nature (and not the best for snowfall to lower levels).

9 days out is on the borderline - traditionally the accepted "reliable timeframe" has been D10 (+240 hours) but it's open to interpretation and different systems provide different results. For me, it's around D5-7 in the reliable. D7-10 50/50 on whether the general pattern will come off. D11+ all just for fun.

GFS 6z always begins rolling at 09:30 GMT yes. I don't feel like we're going to be getting a fully fledged cold spell setting up I have seen little to suggest that this is just my opinion but- in my view we're probably just going to see a push of heights to the W of us push N either slightly W (initially) or a big push of heights over the top of the country. This would no doubt settle things down and turn things rather cool/chilly, and possibly cold for a time with a NW'ly wind - cool days with frosty nights possible and showers would possibly be of a wintry nature, especially the further N/W you go. I'm not seeing much from the ensembles/clusters to suggest it'll be much more than this in terms of this evolving into a longer spell - For this northerly location above there's only a handful of members dipping below that -5 isotherm and these are all beyond D10 - it looks relatively mild until then. I suspect the majority do see some sort of rise in pressure but most too close to us to really see a big plunge of colder uppers from the north These clusters at D10 show a range of possibilities setting up and highlight well a clear sign that higher pressure is going to build - but none of these show it in a location that would look like it would open the door to something much colder or longer. Just a brief window where NWly/weak Nly winds may come in for a time I would not be disappointed at all with these outlooks - the possibility does seem there of things settling down and becoming cooler, no deep colder spell in sight IMO but people are welcome to disagree - but with winter still being well over 2 weeks away there's no cause for concern at all, any cooler weather with frosty nights at this time of year is just a bonus. Too far out to take this with any amount of seriousness but these GFS temps for around that time period highlight well what we may see - That's for dawn a week on Saturday when we may be under a more - but the temps for N/NWly areas only bump up to about 3-5'C later in the day. All perfectly normal for November (well - okay we often think of November as a soaking Atlantic driven month!) but there's no oddity in a few shorter lived cooler snaps especially from a NWly source - longer term deeper colder spells at this time of year are a rarity even in previous colder eras.

Glad to hear your local mountains have a covering First of the season.. Hills around me, including Saddleworth Moor, Black Hill, Kinder Scout (slightly further afield) around 400-640m above sea level are all considerable beasts when it comes to snow cover, but usually it requires something more in the way of a general cold snap for snow to fall and settle first. I suppose the South Pennines is moorland compared to mountains in the Lakes. There was a snow patch above me (close to Black Chew Head, near Saddleworth Moor, the county top of Greater Manchester) that never melted and remained there from 15th December 2009 until May 2010. I've often wondered whether I'll see anything like that again on the moors around me.

Perhaps Downburst inadvertently posted the chart for the wrong day/time - the same model has much higher temperatures the day after (Sunday 19th) Has to be said though it's somewhat at odds to the GFS GFS for that timeframe emphasises the build of high pressure from the south more then the ECM does - the ECM is in a more broadly westerly flow

Very wet generally across the region with longer spells of rain for most

1947 Diggle, Saddleworth, Yorks (now Grt Manc).

Latest radar. I assume it must be broken.

Amidst the soaking weather recently (for me anyway) and the recent gloomy weather and somewhat gloomy outlook at least it looks like we can nick a settled chilly night for the majority of the country back end of this week Not that it's a sign of things to come thereafter

Well, my November knowledge is a little sketchy but there are a few that I remember - 2005 - memory sketchy but I think the first half or so was mild and wet and the last was dominated by northerly winds, my area happily receiving some of the heavier falls and accumulations. Just a nice month of two halves. 2016 - perhaps one of the more 'different' Novembers - a bit frosty and on the chilly side (in comparison to recent times anyway) and some settled weather albeit I did record some very severe localised flooding near me 2010 - most unusual to get such a deep spell of cold weather in the final week or so of the month which continued well into the following month Then there are some which aren't my 'favourite' by any stretch but still stand out head and shoulders above others - 2009 - very mild (CET 8.6) with large amounts of flooding. Akin to this one so far I suppose. Yes I understand it's a horrible type of weather and flooding is very dangerous but from a weather fan perspective it doesn't mean it's not of interest. (But yes I understand it's not in keeping with the thread's title "favourites)(!) 2015 - Can't remember if this month saw a huge amount of rainfall or not but it was ridiculously mild (albeit I still had a brief cold snap towards the end). Following month Dec CET freightingly even milder One more which is not really within my memory but I've read upon - 2001 - a cold snap occurred around 8th/9th, which, if I'm right (and someone may want to correct me), did see snowfalls down to low levels even in the south. Could this be the most recent November with such occurrence so early on in the month? As in I don't think there's been a November since with a cold snap as early as that or earlier. Someone may want to correct me. (Oct 08 an exception, though I'm specifically focusing on Novembers).

Potential for a couple of frosty nights coming up end of this week de-icer may be required soonish

I can't quite believe how wet it was for some areas yesterday. Particularly a sort of "central strip" through the middle of the region where the showers were just absolutely relentless and simply formed into a long long spell of rain. A bit drier this morning but my journey in was not without continued heavy showers. It's not raining now here in Leigh but horrid traffic on the M62 all down to overrunning overnight roadworks is not what I needed!

I was born in 1996 - so there's the reason I don't recall it personally (!) However, as soon as I read the post, I knew straight away the date was familiar - My friend owns a website of train and bus photos from his trainspotting years around my area (near Oldham, Greater Manchester) and on a photo he has of 6th November 1988 he adds in the caption - "This was a day of unusual weather conditions, with a mist hanging in the valley late on an autumn afternoon, which is not a common occurrence here. I had hoped to get an orange ball of the setting sun in the background for this shot, but was not in luck". So there you go, that's my personal affiliation with the day My local area doesn't often see mist or fog clinging to the valleys in the daytime but on the moors above and around us, including our local motorway junction (J22 of the M62, probably a stretch of motorway everyone has driven on at some point), at 350m+ a.s.l at this time of year mist, fog and general poor visibility is extremely common up there at this time of year.

Yesterday afternoon at about 14:00, I got into my car which had been parked right in the sun (it was a mostly lovely morning - from dawn until about 15:00 we had mostly sunny spells, one of the longest sunny spells since June) and for the first time since June the car felt like a hot oven when I got in, that type of feeling of a hot summer's day - of course it wasn't particularly hot temps wise by any means but shows how the sun can warm things up at this time of year. But the following rain yesterday afternoon/eve/overnight was much more organised and heavy than I expected it to be and will only add to what is going to come out a very high rainfall total for my area and indeed most if not all of the NW. And this met office radar this morning nicely sums up what most of us have woken up to. It's not 'rain' - it's more like a damp squib of horribleness, lightest of drizzle, but cold with a t shirt on, and incredibly dull - a morning better suited to October. Thankfully this should clear out of the way by lunchtime give or take - and the rest of the day, overnight and into the weekend look much more dry, albeit that huge yellow ball in the sky which we've not seen a lot of recently again may make only limited appearances - overcast cloudy conditions may prevail. Weekend looking a mix with potential for some frequent showers especially for us in the NW - Monday the next day a huge band of rain engulfs the country again in what is turning out to be one of the more notable unsettled spells in mid-summer we've had for quite some time.

It may look unsettled at first glance when looking at the charts for this week but perhaps not overly so. Today has been largely dry albeit perhaps a few of us have caught an isolated shower. At work (Leigh) I haven't.. Tomorrow similar but perhaps more of a threat towards the east of the region of some more noticeable showers. And a large band of rain moving through the majority of the region later this week, at the moment, looks like it may happen 'overnight' Wed-Thurs - perhaps a slight bonus certainly in the summer time if it is staying mostly dry in the day. Fri-Sun looking mixed with potentially a fair bit of rain at times but hopefully nothing like the deluge that was last weekend.

Cold spring and Summer? Not a single month this year has been anything close to being colder than average CET wise (aside July which we'll wait and see on).. Admittedly the weather recently has been what I'd describe as the perfect definition of Autumn though.