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StretfordEnd1996

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Everything posted by StretfordEnd1996

  1. It's only the 'mean' run that he posted - this isn't an actual run or anything its just the mean of all ensemble members 'Chilly rain' would be the case if the whole of the country lay below 50m or so - but there are some hills too - many of them As I said earlier I'd be extremely surprised if Scotland/Northern England hills at the very least don't see anything next week. All to play for
  2. I'm liking the overall look and feel to what the models have produced so far today - it's certainly an improvement to what we saw on the weekend GFS hints at heights trying to gather around Greenland as early as D8 and by D10 lands us in something a little more convincing And this really is just for fun but just a taster of some possible precipitation happenings the GFS is seeing for next week Of course this means nothing at the moment but there's bags and bags of potential for something wintry in nature precipitation wise for at least Scotland/Northern hills at the very least IF these charts keep rolling - it'd be cold enough Fully understand people's frustration at seeing 'never come off' D10 charts - but let's not forget, they will come off one day (otherwise in theory we'd never see a cold setup in the UK again!) - just a bit of patience is required and eventually it will happen - and hopefully in the near future! Some signs of support too from the GEFS And the ECM though the ECM isn't perfect (on face value) - it does show some good signs (though again only by D10!!) Onto 12z have a feeling there may be a few more hopeful tricks up her sleeve.
  3. Uppers very up and down in the next 5 days or so Thereafter the GEFS does look a tad colder than average without question - but I'd have liked a few more members to flirt with the -5 uppers Still - the mean does look acceptable in the long run with any signs of that horrid euroslug looking quite far south
  4. GFS a little closer to the ECM by +174, with HP ridge fond enough to bring colder air in but it lasts probably a blink of an eye with the uppers struggling to stay cold for longer than 24 hours
  5. As per yesterday still some large differences between the ECM and the GFS at +192 Maybe not 'large' differences but as ever with our country, the exact position of any ridge of HP will determine whether it's cold or not ECM has it far west enough to bring in something much colder from the North GFS has it to far east Other than that ridge the rest of the two charts really ARE similar.. it's just us, and our unpredictable British weather Fine margins
  6. GFS Vs ECM at +192 show different possibilities In my opinion they aren't ridiculously different to each other - but perhaps the end result would be somewhere in the middle?
  7. ECM tonight clearly shows the colder option, and what is important in my opinion is it does indeed do that as early as +192 Ridge to the West ready to work a bit of magic and eventually bring the cold in by the end GFS 12 is clearly much less cold filled but at the same timeframe at +192 I don't think this one is a million trillion miles away from the ECM - we just need a bit more energy to our west I respect all comments regarding the GFS and it's better handling of these types of situations but ECM has also won over the years many times too. Had it been the other way around tonight with the GFS showing cold and ECM less so - I'm sure we'd all be mentioning how the ECM has often won over the years too A proper old fashioned ECM Vs GFS it is at the moment and in my opinion there's little proof that the GFS will win in the same manner theres also little proof the ECM will win. Something down the middle seems most plausible (that is a typical nice NW'ly perhaps)? Either way sit tight.. it's all so interesting at the moment when often at this time of year I'm bored of some horrid looking charts. For the record for what it's worth the GEM looks closer to the ECM solution but never quite gets as potent
  8. Some great signs in FI but it's before D10 in which we see some interesting signs - +219 shows HP trying to ridge to our west and this is ultimately what happens So interesting signs slowly but surely trying to move into the 'reliable' time frame - (though at this time of year I consider anything over +144 to be unreliable so I'm sort of contradicting myself here!) It's the small signs prior to FI that interest me the most - (though yes there's some eye watering charts post D12)!!
  9. A bit more of an ensemble trend emerging now for around D8-10 with uppers dipping cold again - the mean dips very close to -5 uppers for this time frame (with the op actually an milder outlier for this specific time frame too) Majority of the colder members will be down to a colder NW'ly or N'ly incursion (and not anything more potent than that) Most members then warm up a tad whilst the op then takes over the reins of introducing some more organised cold.. Interesting times
  10. GFS from D8 onwards until the end of the run isn't perhaps as cold compared to recent runs but nonetheless it still shows ridging trying to get going to the W/NW at various stages (and yes before D10) Doesn't quite stay there but it's nice to see it still being shown rather than a total lack of heights Prior to all this in the nearer time frame, scarves and hats are required thanks to some lovely cold tingling charts
  11. I think you're expectation has an above average chance of being right - statistically at least - since cold Winters are a 1 in 10 year type of thing for the UK.. But they do happen.
  12. Well it's nice to know we don't need to look for 100 days ahead for cold charts - we can look 2 days ahead for some spine shivering ones! It's always nice to know that for the Winter of 2019-20 it took a total of 0 days for the arrival of cold weather..
  13. As I'm quite new to posting in the model thread, can I double check I am allowed to post D10 charts?
  14. We're not looking at charts that are 14 days away for cold weather GFS shows a cold pattern emerging at D10 with riding to the west of us pushing North A good few ensembles also showing a similar solution The chart you posted a few moments ago was for D8 - this has never been shown as a day with a 'cold' flow EDIT: An acceptable chart from the ECM at +240 - signs of ridging too to the west?
  15. Yes that'd be because you're looking at a time frame well too early for cold..
  16. I was half hoping the GFS 6z would show the possible second Atlantic Ridge on or before +240 - but as we often see it keeps sort of 'mingling' around beyond +240 in FI as each run goes on! Either way it's not as potent as what we saw this morning and yesterday Builds up around D11 Topples through by the end of the run. In its maximum position it isn't a huge ridge and only just lets some brief colder air in This isn't a concern to me yet though purely because its still in FI so the main thing for now is actually getting some sort of ridging appear in the nearer time frame - the finer details such as how North it gets towards Greenland, how cold the uppers it brings in are and how quickly it disappears and topples through is of no concern to me until at least +144 hours So absolutely nothing confirmed or set in stone yet - all just a bit of fun and games at the moment regarding that possible second cold bite, whilst we all know its plausible its too far away to confirm anything.
  17. GFS continues its (often rare) consistency for +198 onwards this morning (in comparison to its previous runs) HP topples through around D4-5 Still means that by Tuesday next week temperatures still struggling and largely in the low-mid single figures Still cold into Wednesday morning before largely turning milder by D7-8 Just gone D10 it shows HP trying to built to the west A good smattering of the ensembles also support a colder solution - especially around the 9th/10th/11th
  18. Thanks for the stunning post Catacol always appreciate posts like that which have clearly taken a lot of work and effort in comparison to my posts which I whip up in about 60 seconds! GEFS ensembles are staying with the general consensus There is a definite cool down in the uppers there from lets say D7 to beyond D10. Now just how cool it gets is when the fun and games start - plenty of options maintain an average/milder solution probably through W'lies or even SW'lies but plenty show that NW'lie option - some even go even colder than that. That op is clearly something of an outlier later on in the run but not too fussed about that at this stage - its the initial (possible) NW'ly incursion I'm looking towards first. Was actually hoping for 2 or 3 real freezer runs in there - not quite seen that yet but wouldn't be surprised if a few crop up within the next week or so
  19. I think its a tad early to be posting about specific detail in an event that we don't even know yet exists but hey whatever - its still music to my ears..! In the nearer timeframe - 'Seasonable' is the perfect term I'm looking for for this chart
  20. GFS clutching on a bit of a golden ticket again tonight Means nothing at the moment though.. need some more ensembles trending into something similar too.
  21. GFS out to +240 very similar to the 12z showing a brief NW'ly incursion around that timeframe bringing again cold uppers into the country HP actually sets further North over Greenland too
  22. Brrr De-icers at the ready .. (already had to defrost my car a few times this last month or so)
  23. Absolutely - and that's a good thing at this stage to see that sort of (loose) agreement at D10 GFS-GEM-ECM GFS and GEM both drawing down cooler air from the North ECM not so much and looks flatter but it's not a million miles away (just slightly east compared to the GFS) Bit of luck and connecting the dots the HP could lie in a favorable position for colder weather around that time frame Let's see what happens in the next few days - D10 is a long way off
  24. There we have it then - the first proper eye candy so far? Shame it probably won't happen..
  25. Hello Miss. GFS12 FI .. Looks like she has a few wildcards up her sleeve this afternoon.. Up she goes..
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