StretfordEnd1996

Daniel* Haha yes the waiting patience game - until we all lose patience but by then the cold has disappeared by then probably To be fair though, while the majority of the GFS eye candy in the 6z is indeed beyond D10, it very much begins and sets up before then, as per recent ECM, GEM - ECM +228 GFS Not too dissimilar at all. But this is still so far out - and I just get the feeling that HP is such a delicate little sector it may be so easily prone to moving elsewhere and less favourable for a colder spell. But the foundations are there on both the ECM and GFS at face value, and NOT at D10 or beyond, always a good sign. We need to see some consistency now. ~ At D10 the ECM shows the heights decreasing slightly already - not of a particular concern to me at this stage (as even getting them in place in the first place is the main concern for now). But, into FI beyond D10 and the GFS really does crack open the lagers - in a pattern which is total opposite to its more recent runs in the last few days, with HP eventually sitting to our N/NW throughout a huge portion of the rest of the run, only shrinking/flattening ever so slowly - and therefore gives us some just for fun eye candy. It's not the most extreme El'ly in the world but those cold uppers hold on throughout the whole of that second week. The latter charts above show those cold uppers still holding on even after the heights have somewhat dispersed. All just eye candy at the moment - but, within D10 we at least do have some cross-model agreement for some sort of push of heights to our NW/N - this is the foundation, quite what happens after is anyone's guess - and as I said it all feels a bit delicate and prone to moving elsewhere - but GFS 6z I feel may go down as being one of the best runs in this chase, (in FI)..

Anthony Burden It certainly does look more interesting in the D9/10 timeframe, with HP pushing to the W/NW towards Greenland, but it doesn't quite get there and by D10 weakens off slightly It brings in colder uppers - If the run continued those heights look as if they'd collapse though. On face value I don't think those charts would - the pattern would need to hold for a time. Looks somewhat dry those charts (on face value). We just need to get something of a colder pattern in place first akin to the ECMWF before we start focusing on the details or snowfall potential.

Bit of a surprise to see this appear all of a sudden

The GEFS 6z doesn't look horrendous in the latter stages - plenty of members flirting with -5 uppers including the control The operational was one of the more milder in the run. I keep seeing this recently - the op just consistently seems one of the mildest members vs its ensembles - not sure why this is, it just seems to consistent recently.

There are one or two promising charts I can see around D9-10 this morning from the GEM and ECMWF but these are more "if they ran a couple of days further beyond D10 type charts" (which equivalates to straw clutching in a way ) The GEM towards the end of its time frame has a huge bulk of HP moving slightly towards the W/NW of us which may suggest something of a colder note thereafter ECMWF somewhat similar but less pronounced - but interesting to see some sort of cross-model similarities GFS nothing like the above though ENS across the board are all a tad disappointing, although the very back end of the mean for the GFS doesn't look all that gloomy to be honest The ECMWF clusters appear to have lost the signal for more general northern blocking - it's still there on some but they have all gone a bit everywhere to be honest (may not necessarily be a bad thing?) Agree with others - not waving a white flag yet. I often feel mid-Feb to mid-March can bring some notable cold spells if things add up. I feel like this period on the law of averages has better potential than December. As a kid growing up through the 00s - 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 all favoured the colder conditions post mid-Feb and for me as I was getting into climatology at the time this mid Feb- mid March period has just kind of stuck in my own personal experience of a period I look out for for colder weather, I fully acknowledge it doesn't happen every year. Some picks of model output from the above aforementioned years just so the above comment is somewhat still on topic with the thread Just because the outlook at the moment is a tad frustrating - and indeed its been a frustrating model thread a good deal of the time this Winter - it doesn't mean that this reduces the chances of a colder spell as we head further forward - it's not as though the weather and the charts have a memory and are playing some sort of game with us here in this thread - they'll just do what they do - not much cold of note in the next 10 days but beyond that and until mid-March we can still quite easily get something of note, no question. GFS 6z op tries its best to get something of interest or eye candy in deep FI, doesn't quite come off but interesting to see nonetheless

Bit late but these set of 6z ensembles don't look particularly pleasing from a cold perspective and to me show a reduction in colder members compared to recent runs Big amount of scatter though yes. The period from around 3rd-6th February looks to have the most colder members, I suspect the majority of this is from some temporary NW type incursion (lacking any sort of blocking). Thankfully this above doesn't have any relevance to further longer range models mid-end of Feb which is still a good 3-4+ weeks away widely.

@Paul I think the new system is working great and I am happily using the Quote Selection feature - something I didn't even know existed.

Yes, of course there have been exceptions.

Yes I agree with this as well to some degree. I think I mentioned in a post a few days back, growing up in the 2000s as a kid, snowfall in Feb/March just seemed the normal for me, and it often felt this was the most potent part of the Winter. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 all arguably had the most notable cold spells post January (certainly IMBY). Of course, a large amount of these years also saw cold spells in Jan and Dec too - but Feb/March just always felt more likely IMO. (IIRC good handful of these years also contained cold snaps into April too) In the more recent last 10 or so year period (particularly post 2013) this hasn't quite been as notable - but, while I often see people say things like how we 'don't get notable February cold spells anymore" - well, we don't often get notable cold spells in Dec or Jan anymore either (well certainly in the last 10 years) - it's not as though February is in isolation or anything. By this time of the Winter time may be ticking a little - but this doesn't mean the potency or likelihood of a cold spell in Feb/late Feb is any lower than Dec or Jan in my opinion.

GFS 06z shows first signs of a small change around D9-11 period as it manages to claw in some temporary cooler air from the NW for a time - this isn't coupled with any notable Atlantic block or other block so it is brief but would turn things much cooler Nothing out of the ordinary and this is a separate thing to what some members of the GEFS and ENS possibly indicate (which show various HP to the W/NW, but some time after the D10 timeframe).

@Stabilo19 Yes without question - although I'd debate whether "a strengthening sun" actually makes things milder from a statistic/theoretical point of view. It aids snow melt and certainly feels warmer on the skin no doubt, but it doesn't necessarily directly make things warmer as far as the forecast temps would be concerned. A Max of 0'c with no sun is exactly the same temperature of 0'C in the sun. (In regards to your other point, yes I agree a warming world does tend to make things warmer! ) While I acknowledge some people don't particularly take affection to how the sun can melt snowfall much quicker than earlier in the season, I for one don't mind days like that though - February 2018 being an example. Wake up to 10-20cm of snowfall widely, and then have a cracking blue sky day with sunshine - its direct influence making it possible to sit outside the pub with a pint, as long as you have your big coat on. Yes, the snow would thin out in more exposed spots - but but the re-freeze overnight then sees huge icicles and with a bit of luck, a more deeper cold spell may see more snowfall ... dreaming a bit now I suppose having a fall of snow in late February of like 2-5cm, with sunshine it'd mostly thin out and melt quite considerably but larger falls can stick around for a long while.

@bluearmy I think this is them now updated I'll let you analyse them, I'm not so good at interpreting what they're showing!

That looks a great chart to me Don considering the current shorter term output and current circumstances - loads of potential with that chart and even on face value something like that would be bring in NWly or Nly winds. With some dull looking charts at the moment, the chart you posted really gives me optimism of a change further down the line. I've definitely seen worse charts than that. If anything it's absolutely what we want to see. In the slightly shorter term there are a few ensembles in FI in the GEFS that are diving quite low - nothing out of the ordinary but we've lacked this somewhat in the last few days In regards to the ECM too - it's not as though I'm personally looking at it's output to only determine if we're heading for a severe deep freeze or not, I'm merely just looking for a step in the right direction to which it is. It clearly shows a weakening of Azores heights and a weakening of the Atlantic train. With those two in play it gives reason for optimism- even if the end result is anything from a brief Northerly to something more substantial

Looks very promising to me the fact they are still mentioning an increased chance of normal of colder spells as we head towards mid February.

The MET aren't necessary on their own though when comparing their thoughts to the model output - i.e. ECMWF CFS

Relentless GEM Control would be nice Amongst the low mood regarding colder options this morning, even with milder background signals and synoptics we can still "fluke" a brief push of heights W or NW to bring in something even if it was brief, something like that can pop up any time, however unlikely it may be

Thanks for always posting these so promptly - saves me having to navigate through the ECMWF website to retrieve them myself (which for some reason is always a slow site to navigate around on my device!) In what has been a bit of a depressing set of operational runs and GFS ENS to wake up to at least these show a bit of optimism going forward. For the extended timeframe, even the clusters which don't show HP to our W/NW, even these in the majority do at least show a weakening of the euro heights, always something which helps (Edit, Bluearmy who posted about a second before I did beat me to it regarding this last point!)

When you say 'soon', I assume that isn't within the next 10 days though. If the Met are hinting at colder weather from around 5th to 19th Jan, which is anything from around week 2 to mid month, then what the shorter range models show until at least the very end of Jan are of irrelevance - for example the ECM only currently goes out until Jan 31st! Patience I think is required - ECMWF 42 day and CFS both hint at higher heights to the W/NW generally by mid month, which somewhat goes with the Mets words.

Forgive me if I'm misunderstanding the point you're making but all I can see from those ensembles is a clear trend to milder than average uppers throughout the entire set with little support for anything colder. The white mean line clearly shows this. I struggle to see any sort of mess or scatter that we often see - yes it looks a bit messy at first glance but when you take a further look I see little cold potential. There is however perhaps a faint indication of something slightly cooler around D9/10 as the Op and Control both drop but I would of thought this is down to a brief cooler interlude in what would still be a Westerly based pattern Still let's see what the next few days bring, I still feel we may see a few bits of eye candy in FI with heights to the W/NW in the next few days which albeit is JFF would perhaps raise excitement amongst some!

It may of been a little quieter in here today than earlier in the week when the signs of a Scandinavian High may of presented themselves - but considering only a handful of operational runs from the GFS FI or GEM liked the idea, I'm not losing sleep over the collapse of this signal. The various ENS from the GFS and ECM also to me never showed a Scandinavian high with a full blown Easterly - often just showing lots of HP over the top of the country extending up there but nothing more than that.. But, while there's not much going on at the moment on the look out for colder weather, the GFS 12z ENS surprised me a little with the amount of members beyond D10 flirting with the -5'C uppers. Yes there's a huge amount of scatter but it shows there are options on the table. (I acknowledge these ENS are specifically for my town, may be slightly different elsewhere) GFS ops last few runs also showing signs of attempted height rises to W/WNWish, I don't take anything in FI usually but it does just paint a slight picture of what may happen if we are to get another colder spell. ECMWF extended also kind of hints at this trying to push those heights further to the W of us - and likely quietens the Altantic considerably (The week after these weak heights do end up notably to the NW of us but this is well towards mid Feb now) but that's just the direction I sense things may be going Yes things look shocking don't they for the next few days! Km/h ^ for clarification.. !

Yes April snowfall is something that has always interested me - the thing is when we see snow in April, it usually most likely can only occur thanks to an extremely potent blast from the north, often just a standard Northerly wind assisted by a Atlantic block going towards Greenland - a more flimsy/weak type northerly blast often isn't enough by April. Hence why April cold spells which deliver snowfall are just by default so potent. Certainly always feels so cold too because as you alluded to, likelihood is we would of already had much milder Spring-like temps or a taste of Spring before then. Last week in March, 2012 - was moving house, it was mild, late teens I think, was sweating moving stuff around.. 5 days later April 5th woke up to snow on ground

As someone who grew up in the 2000s I always remember when I was a kid I just assumed February and March were the de-facto coldest winter months. This belief was most likely stemmed from the cold ends to both February 2005 and February 2006, along with March 2006. Feb and March 2007 where also cold at times, as was March 2008. I never used to really see much snow in Dec/Jan. The main event I always thought was Feb/March.

The GFS Op has gone from being a notable cold outlier (coldest of the run) on the 0z to being one of the warmest of the run on the 6z for the sort of 11-15 day timeframe. Bit bizarre not sure if I've seen something like that type of swing recently (when compared to the rest of the suit).

Yes agreed. Some of the more severe memorable Feb cold spells we've had are often looked back on with great memories - and I don't dis them just because the sun thinned the cover out quite quickly. But lesser cold spells i.e. a brief fall and cover yes I suppose it can melt much quicker than if it did in Dec/Jan.

I don't think this at all - the back end of February for example is 4-6 weeks away. I could travel the world in that time. I could change jobs. It's an eternity. Early Feb yes okay we'd need stuff to change pretty quickly but while many posts are now "We're beginning to run out of time" type posts, I actually take a different stance - we've got plenty of time yet for something significant. Some of the most famous cold spells in the decades gone by have happened in the back end of Feb. Getting the cold in in the first place is what is often my main concern My 'acceptable' minimal duration of a cold spell is a good 3-5 days of low single digit temps (or lower), preferably with a bit of snow on the ground. This spell has met that expectation. Of course it depends on the pattern etc - if its a brief Northerly I'd adjust my expectation accordingly. I suppose the cold spells that are hard to shift are the ones which boast large amounts of blocking northwards, and naturally as that doesn't happen often in this day and age, the cold spells can quickly finish A lot of posts in the model threads at the moment appear to be looking towards a Scandi high which has presented a possibility in a few runs in the last few days. So far it doesn't seem to quite materialise properly and from what I can see a likely evolution would be for HP to be dominant but often tend to rest close or over the UK in the 7-15 day timeframe. Frosty nights potentially. Perhaps, actually, the potential HP over Scandi is a bit of a red herring - some more longer range models such as this below (which yes change every day and I take it with a pinch of salt, hence I won't post it in the model thread) show HP in the week 3/4 period as being more Atlantic based pushing towards Greenland. At least if this type of thing was to come off, it's not like a Scandi high where there's a worry about other pieces of the jigsaw coming together - a mid-Atlantic ridge even a weak flimsy one would still likely induce some sort of colder NW/N'ly incursion potentially. ECMWF 42 also shows a similar evolution with this HP over UK tending to bias towards W/NWly as time goes on.