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StretfordEnd1996

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  • Gender
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  • Location
    Saddleworth, near Oldham, South Pennines. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences
    Sunny Summers, Rainy+Windy Autumns, Cold and Snowy Winters, Mixed Springs.

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  1. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Ahh, welcome back to the frame GFS! The thing is - a lot of people do mention of how the GFS is useless past D6 and so on and so forth which I fully understand and it is true but end of the day, I love watching the models roll through, I love Winter and I love snow. I haven't had the best day of model watching today but at least there is something a bit more promising to end it on the GFS. It's like watching a football team against someone three divisions above you - you are playing well all game but you need a goal and you know the opposition (mild weather) is most likely going to win - but hey, enjoy it while you can? I have even included the precipitation chart - as pointless as it is but look I'm just reading the charts and reporting back. Another thing is this - I understand people who say things like 'the GFS/ECM has been constant let down all Winter' but the thing is, the weather and the charts don't have a memory. sooner or later it will show something cold and it will come off, let's just wait and watch for now
  2. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Yes I agree I can't quite see how this chart for next Friday from the UKMO is an improvement over the GFS but then again the two charts are a touch different to each other in regards to the high pressure; the GFS has it going further North and East compared to the UKMO But both charts do show the same general outline regarding the situation to the West of us and up in the Arctic.
  3. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Thankfully this iffy looking chart is well after the reliable timeframe and I am hoping this doesn't come off any time soon! But on face value it's not the most exciting GFS12z I have seen which fails to bring anything significant to our shores after the high pressure over us next week - at least we can maybe get some frosts out of this. What is nice to know is we are not even half way through the Winter yet and we have plenty of time to get things going again soon, I am thinking that hopefully give it a week or 10 days or so and some eye candy will be propping up again within the charts. As well as this we have to remember it's a hugely uncertain outlook after 7-8 days or so anyway.
  4. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    You are right mate - although I don't think we should really 'bin' the run - yes I will show huge dislike towards it but for the purposes of the fact that our weather is so unpredictable and cold spells are so hard to come by in our shores of the world - we certainly have to take into account what it is showing. But hey - it's not a complete breakdown by any means - there is still some very cold uppers in place on Friday and Saturday of next week before that high pressure tumbles in; Usually by now we'd be in dismay having seen the NW/N completely disappear but it is still there -8 uppers down to Northern England Will have to wait and see what the ENS are like you called it right - but the op has put me in the mood to sleep rather than stay awake for those! Not the best ends to the day but every chance this will lead to a better rise tomorrow when my alarm goes off at 05:30 for the GFS00z (Yeah - the obsession is that severe) Goodnight
  5. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Yeah ... whatever GFS18z ... you just do what you want, much to all our dismay! Hopefully after a good telling off from all us lot the early morning GFS run will behave itself and give us a bit more passion than that Still very cold uppers for a time on Friday and Saturday next week but after the ECM and GFS12z I was hoping for a bit more of an effort to produce and maintain a decent Northerly Will go to sleep not too overly concerned at this stage - every single 'build up' to a cold snap in the UK always includes some poor charts like this one - we all know that. Hopefully ECM has latched onto the right idea Here's hoping for a good FI too - for what it's worth Ensembles were looking good too earlier - It's so incredibly annoying to end on a chart like this after today but whatever stilll plently to play for tomorrow I think, upgrades and downgrades from here. Goodnight
  6. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    I'm not overly in love with the GFS18z tonight - the high pressure to the West seems to have shifted a little towards us compared to the GFS12z. I'm hoping it behaves itself a bit more for the rest of the run ...
  7. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Looking in the more nearer time frame - the uppers towards the middle of next week around Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty chilly from a bit of a North Westerly type flow - according to the GFS18z and the ECMWF Yeh alright it's as brief as anything and NW type incursions are uneventful for many of us 90% of the time but for me, as a lover of weather in general, always like a nice cold looking chart even if it's just a brief incursion of cold uppers for not even a day . It's a nice change from that huge swathe of those yellow colours swung over the top of the country from the South and West anyway. ECM seems to be able to pull of another NW type incursion a few days later towards the end of the run - this one a bit more potent perhaps Both models have been flirting with some sort of NW incursion(s) next week sometime at varying different days let's see if any of them produce some wintry showers for the North and West. Apologies for taking such an in depth look on such an uneventful looking NWly but hey what else could I look at Some fantastic fantastic inputs by so many of you today it really has made me learn a lot and is one of the reasons I never ever give up hope - if I was so so negative I don't think I'd ever deserve snow ever again. Being positive makes me feel so much better. Goodnight everyone.
  8. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    ECMWF at 216 hours - And 240 hours - I wonder if those heights rolling in are trying to sink South.
  9. StretfordEnd1996

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    Not sure if I really agree with you on this one mate - there appears to be little or no difference at all in the GEFS 12z suit compared to previous runs in the last few days and I certainly haven't seen any dramatic increase in the number of milder runs. ECM out to 168 - let's see what happens with that WNW flow.
  10. StretfordEnd1996

    North West England - Weather Chat - Spring 2016 Onwards

    I think another reason it's been so very quiet in here is virtually everywhere in England has had better weather than us this Summer. The South in particular have faced a very dry July with some very decent temperatures but us, typically in the North and West, have faced some bog standard frequent showers or longer spells of rain with temperatures nothing to right home about and sunny days not in good supply.
  11. StretfordEnd1996

    Autumn 2016

    November 2005 was a cracker and one that has been largely forgotten about, although I must say this heights chart for that month looks very wintry indeed, beats anything we've seen over the last 3 years or so From what I can remember though it was a very dry affair and one of the reasons it may have been a bit forgotten is it didn't produce any notable snowfall for most of country except from Northern England esp. around Pennines, happily I recorded 10cm or so which lasted a more than a day. As for Septembers though, of course we always think of some pleasant and settled weather which is usually mild and very Summer like; on the top of my head though I seem to recall September 2010 as being quite a chilly one? Didn't we get a bit of a Northerly blast?
  12. StretfordEnd1996

    North West England - Weather Chat - Spring 2016 Onwards

    It was a bit of a cloudy and overcast day yesterday for me with little in the way of sunny spells although it definitely felt mild or very mild largely because that's just how it works in Summer.
  13. StretfordEnd1996

    Autumn 2016

    Sundog; this post unfortunately doesn't really suit being in the Autumn 2016 thread. Such level of detail from you in regards to this Autumn would be an interesting read though!
  14. StretfordEnd1996

    Autumn 2016

    I don't ever manage to recall previous Autumn's all that well if I am being honest; largely because a vast majority are just mild and wet with rain and gales so all previous Autumn's just seem to merge into one! Some that stand out I think are 2009 (the reason being it was a particularly wet Autumn especially October and November which saw severe flooding in my local area) 2010 - A cool and sometimes coldish October and a very cold (towards the end) November which is a rather unusual pattern for Autumn 2011 - A very mild (almost hot at times) October I seem to recall? Made it stand out a bit 2000 - Obviously this one was particularly remembered for being extremely wet All the other years I just can't recall them that well at all really.
  15. StretfordEnd1996

    Autumn 2016

    By the looks of things it is failing to pick up a decent signal for temperature and precipitation. But those pressure anomalies if anything suggest a westerly based scenario I suppose with ridging based to the South of the country, the jet stream would probably be running through the country. This would indicate an unsettled scenario, which of course is the average for Autumn anyway. That's one thing to remember; 'average' in Autumn may commonly mean 'wet and mild'.
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