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The Post-modern Winter

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    Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
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  1. From Ian Ferguson in the ENSO thread - in reference to the ECM monthly . .
  2. Can you hear that BA?? Wait, Just listen. . I think it's the sound of something going over your head. I mean seriously, my reference to IDO PM'ing me is an obvious indicator of a little jesting. .
  3. Not feeling that chart - IDO Pm'd me the 16 day mean for January 14th 1963 and it's showing a strongly westerly flow from a dominant Atlantic
  4. Very heavy snow sticking on all surfaces, including the very wet ground. Met office forecasting heavy snow here until 3 o'clock tomorrow morning.
  5. Think a few posters are confusing their Christmas day associations - it's a time for elves, not trolls.I genuinely feel sorry for those on Christmas day, whose first port of call is to come revel in some schadenfreude on netweather. I sincerely hope they get a little more happiness and positive focus in their lives over the next year. Merry Christmas to one and all.
  6. @MattHugo81: Consistent signs for the strat vortex to become increasingly elongated & eventually split by early 2015 #OneToWatch http://t.co/nurhvHq1qYMmm . . Matt Hugo with a chart to back it up or terrier's usual non-supported claims repeated as an absolute truth? Who to believe guys? (In no way am I saying that Matt is correct but terrier's assertion that "we can forget about a SSW" and "that the polar vortex will strengthen now" jarrs massively with Matt's backed up claim).
  7. Your luck just might be in Terrier. . UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jan 2015 to Thursday 15 Jan 2015: The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of unsettled, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning fog in places as well as a local frost - this will be most likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. However, there is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period, with a period of colder weather possible too. Considering that yesterday any reference to cold had been removed and certain people were fretting, I will certainly take this update.
  8. I agree regarding the mean; even from a fundamentally mathematical point of view I can't see it being of any use initially in the scenarios that many are searching for, i.e. a pattern change. Can anybody more experienced tell me how the mean charts would have looked two weeks before the onset of the late Nov' 2010 cold for instance, or any other relevant cold spell?
  9. In the interests of accuracy, the Met's outlook states a risk of "colder" weather, not "cooler" as stated by IDO (naturally, I assume this an innocent mistake). Considering the ongoing ruckus pertaining to the subjectivity around what can be defined as mild, I think it only fair to point this out. Let's face it, if the MO were referring to mild temperatures and 'a coldie' came in and changed their working to average temps, I imagine there would be quite an outcry from a select few members. Let's not mislead forum viewers IDO - the potential results of cool and cold airmasses over our tiny island are rather different.
  10. As stated consistently by Ian, the above quote from the chief forecaster should be treated with caution however they are clearly seeing something we aren't. I wouldn't place too much focus on the CFS-derived outcome regarding the projected NAO.
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