Joe Levy
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Everything posted by Joe Levy
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Loud crack of thunder in Ealing! -
The wind has picked up very suddenly here in Ealing (fingers crossed for a storm!)
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Never! A combination of stoicism, stubbornness and boundless optimism requires me to stay up 'til I snap!
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I keep getting ready to go to bed, since we have had nothing so far this evening, but each time something catches my interest! I guess I shall have to wait for that growing area to the west of Le Havre then...
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Patiently waiting in Ealing, West London. So far nothing, but I remain ever the optimist!
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We won't see anything major until the early hours of the morning - 2am is a good guess I'd say, though I am sure there are more learned members of the site who could tell you more!
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The main area of thunderstorms is still a long way to the south, over the Bay of Biscay in fact. The region isn't forecast to see it's most significant weather until the early hours of tomorrow morning, 2am at a rough guess but possibly later
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A little early to say that! The main area of interest hasn't even left the Bay of Biscay yet! Chin up folks!
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I know plenty of people have pointed this out, but to reiterate - the main area of thunderstorm activity is forecast for after midnight and is expected to be considerably more widespread than the storms currently affecting Kent and Sussex. The main area of concern is currently moving up from the Bay of Biscay and crossing Northern France
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In Ealing and the lightning is becoming much more frequent to the SW, with increasingly loud rumbles of thunder. The wind has also become much more gusty
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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards
Joe Levy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=175 Having been away from here for about a month on account of a desire to take advantage of the unusually good weather and also an excessive amount of essays, I now come back to find, to my surprise, an easterly, all be it a very undramatic one at that. Either way, the continuation of relatively dry weather is very welcome, and the ensembles seem to show continued low totals. If I have missed anything major in all this, please do correct me/fill me in on the details! -
Well I think that a blocked March and April is certainly feasible, and colder weather has been suggested by the CFS on a few occasions. However, this very much depends on the cold over the Eastern US, which could continue for a lot longer. It has been suggested by some that if this pattern persists into Spring then the stronger sun will give higher dewpoints which in turn would give higher rainfall totals, however I would like to think that would not happen. My hope is that we get a build of high pressure from one angle or another. From a coldie's perspective, a blocked easterly pattern would be nice, but from a more practical and empathetic position, a build of high pressure from the south is preferable.
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I sincerely hope my prediction is wrong! If it is then I will have got it right but in the most unpopular and awful way possible! As a Londoner at university in Exeter, this period of stormy weather has really opened my eyes to the way that central government in London just seems to abandon the rest of the country half the time, unless it is also affected by the same problem, and the South West, for family reasons, is held very high in my affections, so that I now consider myself 50% Devonian (not the geological period ), 50% Londoner!
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There are a few great posts on the mod thread about this, in more technical terms than this, but whilst we should enjoy the slightly quieter weather this week, we must not get complacent at all. Aside from the fact that there will still be some rain about and that much of the flooding will take a while to subside, there is also the possibility that stormy weather could return later in the month. This week should be used as a chance to repair as much as possible and make provisions and preparations for the possibility of the return of more tempestuous conditions. Nothing is set in stone, and as gloomy as this sounds, don't let the sunny weather fool you into thinking it is over and continue to stay safe and be on your guard!
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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards
Joe Levy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great post Tamara. My interpretation of that would be that whilst we can look forward to a bit of a respite from the tempestuous weather this week, it may only be a respite if the cold does return over the Eastern United States. Obviously that is a fairly simplistic way of putting it, but one thing I have understood since joining this forum is that whatever happens, a strong jet rarely does us any favours! -
Another weather related drama occurred on my journey to a dinner party, by which time the wind had strengthened even more creating a tree and dustbin obstacle course for me. I have just come back and the wind is still rather fierce and difficult to walk in at times, but the sky is clear and the moon is out!
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Most dramatic lecture ever! The windows, which were locked, were forced open by the wind several times and the building was vibrating. This is at the university on a South-West facing slope about 100ft up, so not entirely surprising given the conditions out there. My walk home was nerve racking as the trees were violently swaying and creaking.
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Just went for a walk, but it was brief, as the wind and driving rain made it hard to walk in a straight line! Everybody I passed was walking like a drunk It has been a narrow band for several days now - it has barely changed size. However, the amber warning for rain has gone, which makes it easier to see the wind warning
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The wind is now really howling through Exeter, especially where I am on the hill. The front door is rattling in the stronger gusts.
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Still raining fairly steadily in Exeter and the wind is now really beginning to pick up.
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Some extraordinarily intense colours on the radar over the Channel Islands! Potentially someone in Southern England is going to notice those later...
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Some scarily intense colours on the radar heading into South Devon! Apparently the Isles of Scilly has had 15mm of rain already, and 17mm in South West Cornwall.
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Snow and hail mix in Exeter, if only for 30 seconds! I am just under 200feet above sea level
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I remember earlier, can't remember if it was on this thread, someone saying that the photo at the head of this article was photoshopped - this article explains how it wasn't! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26150788
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River levels in Exeter rising fairly rapidly. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120726.aspx?stationId=3262 I am amazed that the river levels haven't been higher than they have, given the amount of rain we've had over the last two months.
