Joe Levy

Some of us southerners who haven't seen any snow since March 2013 are hoping for a southerly correction but to whoever gets snow, congratulations in advance

Because it's Christmas, I'm looking for positives and being cheerful. On a more serious note, the 6z has the high slightly stronger and further north, meaning that the cold is more pronounced in Europe over the next week. on the 6z vs this on the 0z EDIT: also this on the parallel - very cold uppers fairly close to the South East. Small corrections would make some difference at least in terms of temperatures

I want to wish everyone on this forum a Merry Christmas! It has been a pleasure to follow the weather goings-on via here over the past couple of years, and sometimes I've had something to contribute! Here's to many more years on here and many more fascinating topsy-turvy weather patterns! On a side note, try not to get too caught up with the models and their mood swings. Very little about this chart (the GEFS 0z) suggests long term agreement and we know how quickly the GEFS can change anyway! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=311&y=141 Besides, who needs agreement when you have PB 3

And this right at the end of the run!

Battleground on the GFS(P)!

The GFS(P) is showing a northerly correction, meaning that colder uppers reach the east coast

Lovely 850 temp average from the 18z ENS

A lesson I have taken from tonight's runs in terms of getting cold, and I am sure others have observed this, is that the ideal position to get any significant cold from a Northerly towards the end of next would be for the low to dig south to the west of the British Isles and to dig south far enough that it isn't immediately pushed away. Regardless of long term cold prospects, our best hopes of getting cold in the first place are from there in my opinion. The GFS(P) did so this evening on the 18z and I will be looking for that feature in future runs

Now this at 192 on the GFS OP! Not entirely sure what to say to all this uncertainty...

There are three features on this chart from the GFS(P) that interest me in particular. This may or may not be something that will continue, we shall see. 1. Low pressure extends deeper into Southern Europe 2. The high pressure in Eastern Europe extends further north 3. Perhaps most crucially for any long term cold prospects, there is greater extension of the Atlantic high over the top of the low pressure to our east

On the GFS(P) the low pressure is digging south slightly further west than on the previous run, while the general picture is more amplified. The implications could be significant EDIT: and then this happens...

Heights trying to make their way into Greenland on the GFS 12z OP - very different to the previous run

Cold uppers from the GFS(P) in a potent Northerly.

It's definitely too early to call this one. I concur, if people look at the ensembles blocking is even more prevalent now (scroll forward to between 192 and 240 hours which is where all this takes place) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

The GFS ens are rolling out and though well into FI, there are several options shown that produce cold, blocked weather. It's worth scrolling through them to have a look. However equally there are plenty that are much more mobile with wet and windy conditions. (though note how blocking is a common theme across the set, just the location is a lot more complicated!) So in summary things are far from certain!

Look at that southerly flow at 300 hours on the GFS 12z, drawing right up to the Arctic!

The uncertainty is evident on the GFS 12z at 144hours. This is the 12z and this was the 6z The 12z has a stronger anchor of high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure is disrupting and moving further into Eastern Europe

The rain has been torrential here in Exeter for the last hour or so, though intermittently. In the higher parts the roads have turned into rivers and I suspect that there may be surface water flooding lower down, similar to the floods we had here a couple of weeks ago.

This is a very good setup synoptically on the GFS, but as of yet we don't have the cold uppers. However, getting the setup in place first is far more important based on previous winters here...

Good afternoon everyone Not that I understand the terminology too well, so correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS is coming out and at 120 hours the Northern hemisphere profile is looking very good from a perspective of northern blocking. I believe that is some wave 2 action there but please correct me if that is wrong! I get the general gist of things but I tend to fail to use the correct terms... EDIT - talk about an apologetic post...

Admittedly it's at a high elevation, but I often use Norway's highest railway station, Finse, to keep an eye on Scandinavia's snow situation, especially for more southerly locations where altitude really counts during the autumn months. Also it is rather fun to watch the snow fall - http://www.finse1222.no/en/webcam I should point out that there was virtually no snow yesterday afternoon.

Yes I was just wondering that. It's a fairly large area of precipitation but so far there hasn't been much mention of it

A large shower is visible to the south-east of me here in Ealing and I can hear fairly regular rumbles of thunder

There is some nice thunderstorm activity developing to the east of St-Malo. It might give a light show to somewhere in Southern England, though that is dependent on whether it makes it across the channel!

The heat in West London is really building now. I do hope we get something out of this, we didn't really get anything last night - it just missed us to the East