philglossop

I think looking at the soundings for QBO- the signs of the Westerly QBO are appearing very clearly in the Strat now and starting to both power up and start the long slide down. Won't affect this winter as highlighted in posts above- but will make 2022 a strengthening WQBO. The failure about 14 months ago seems to have done us a favour going forward...... Edit- did some digging on QBO and it appears the fabled failure of 2016/2017 and 2019 may, may have happened back in autumn of 1964 with a descending EQBO being cut off (not too dissimilar to 2019 with the WQBO strengthening from surface to Strat. This led to a very long WQBO in the Strat from 1964 to 1967 before descending. Interestingly- the next EQBO was 1968-69- and was much shorter as well (as appears to be happening this year) Osprey et al..pdf (hawaii.edu) has the paper. Interesting stuff.

Yes it's a long way out, but surely the High can't be retrogressing again to let another low from the North in? The ensembles will be interesting later!

The question is where is the Atlantic? It's blocked totally- yes pressure is lower towards Greenland, but thats some warm air being pumped up from USA/Canada side. What goes up.....

What a chart!! Best cold run for years- is this the 3rd slider low on this run!

If that low between Iceland and Norway slides..... watch out

That secondary low from North Sea- looks even more interesting as is slides south

Where did that low come from? Answer the North!

Christmas 1992 was very very foggy with freezing fog being a real issue- loads of accidents on the roads. I remember the Radio 1 traffic bulletin at Breakfast lasted a full 4 mins with all the issues countrywide. Funny how things stick in the memory!

Funny just looking at the Singapore soundings and I thought exactly the same- just as the E QBO hits the magically 21km and firmly into the Troposphere. It's taken its time but seems to be descending very quickly now. Early days but it's nailed on EQBO winter this year.

Dartmoor’s Great Blizzard 1927. | Legendary Dartmoor WWW.LEGENDARYDARTMOOR.CO.UK I've seen drifts on Dartmoor back in 1979 and more recently in 1987 but not to depths of 15 to 17ft! The reanalysis charts are snowlovers dream over the Christmas period- even if the upper air temps look rather uninspiring at -5 to -10

It's all ideas and patterns at this point- but the 00z run for 23rd November with the Turin Low and the high in mid Atlantic gives me some optimism. Shame the High close to the UK isn't riding North at this point- but its a start and a good sign!

I see Rev Richard Coles has twitted that a yew tree from Norman times came down in the middle of a church service in his parish in Northamptonshire

I have to be honest- but the QBO strengthening continues into the Trop. Back along I was concerned it could have failed but it hasn’t. I’d be surprised if we get a October figure close towards -20 (my gut thinks it’s going to be about -17/-18 but I’d be happier if it delays until after winter. Whilst it’s been a quick switch from WQBO the desent has been relatively smooth.

Kalimera from Zakynthos! As my Greek friends are telling me, the weather here is heading down towards Winter and we are only getting temps into mid 20s now with thunderstorms expected. Gather Autumn has hit Plymouth with some flash flooding yesterday!

When was the last proper stormy Autumn? I recall a few as a kid apart from the rain fest of 2019 we don’t seem to get Autumn gales like we used to?

Surprisingly stable. In fact the mid 80's saw a financial growth in the South and this led Mrs Thatcher to hold an election in 1987 which she got a massive majority for her 3rd election win. It was boom time in London with yuppies and the stock market starting to come to the fore. Of course different circumstances in mining communities- as this is when the effects of loosing the miners strike in 1985 REALLY hit and there were massive pit closures. It was really a split UK on reflection but living in SW we were pretty much fine.

I stupidly left all the windows open last night so quick blast of the gas fire for about 15 mins just to take the chill off. I live in a frost hollow and we got down to 5.7c here (Mount Batten recorded 9c I spotted)

2 hrs and I think we’re over the worst. That was a cracking storm, loads of backfilling from SE and the storm caused some amazing lightning ️ even at ground level. It’s led to flash flooding across the City and at least 1 school has been hit we think. Took out our PCs - never heard thunder so loud even under cover I was ducking!!! Thank goodness the muggyness has gone over.

It was! Now it’s brightening up a bit.

Best photo I’ve seen so far!

Mount Street primary school has been hit by lightning in Devonport apparently. Fire Brigade in attendance. And it’s still flashing away!!!

Chaos reigns. Never expected this to take out a modern system….

My car park has been hit. Lost everything power wise!

Yup a few flashes towards Saltash and Callington. I thought it was calming down here but another massive rumble and flash close by.

Roads starting to be call in with flooding. Usual suspects- Embankment Road, Lipson Road, Albert Gate Devonport. Power issues in South Hams in Newton and Noss, Yealmpton.