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lamppost watcher

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  1. ECM totally different again in medium range. What's the point in worrying about it?
  2. Tuesday is a long way away with regard to the weather. Seen these situations upgrade plenty of times in the past
  3. The weather models are like a ride in an amusement park, and when you choose to go on it you think it's real because that's how powerful our minds are. The ride goes up and down, around and around, it has thrills and chills, and it's very brightly colored, and it's very loud, and it's fun for a while. Many people have been on the ride a long time, and they begin to wonder, "Hey, is this real, or is this just a ride?" And other people have remembered, and they come back to us and say, "Hey, don't worry, it's just one run. The trend is our friend, and it's looking bloody great!" Bill Hicks (if he was into the weather)
  4. But you have to agree, when Steve says the gfs will do this or that because of its bias, more often than not he is usually correct
  5. @Shaftesbury Snow The "respected forecasters" you mention are what makes this forum worth coming on here for. This is the hunt for cold thread, and hunt it they do in earnest. Nobody comes on here expecting guarantees, as far as I know, but for an insight into what the possibilities are and where the route to cold may be.
  6. This dude is American though so could he be talking about his own backyard? Also, la nina/el nino not though only driver
  7. Quite a difference to the tilt and northern extent of the high at t126 on gfs. 12z first
  8. A nice split of pv shown on the 18z compared to 12 z same time at t180 gfs
  9. Game on at t348. They do say mid Jan is the landing zone
  10. GFS looking a bit better than the 6z at 156h
  11. Think man with beard means that the low in that picture would give 10 times what is shown as the same system in warmer temp would give an inch of rain. That's how I read it anyway