[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Steady light-moderate graupel/sleet now. Temp edging back down to 1.4 dp 0.3

RG7

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

@nick sussex would be nice for para and hirlam to be right.. Be a good surprise

Looking south of Reading it looks to fainlly be on the move.. 

Yes green echoes starting to appear from the west. Problem is we're in drizzle now as conditions have just moved the wrong side of marginal. Temperature of 1.5 and dp around 0.4. Hopefully heavier PPN will switch it back to frozen but I don't expect any settling snow now.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Hmm! Interesting .

The latest radar returns point to the more bullish models re rain turning back to snow  and edging se being more likely .

Yes, PPN remains in situ for now with occasional pulses pushing from east to west. At some point it will move SE a you would think. I suspect that developing ridge from west will start to kill PPN so it needs to get its (ice) skates on!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, stewfox said:

Heavy snow now . Just shows you never know with snow 

I think the amber warning has been judged about right. Clearly heaviest PPN is in the NW of the warning area, but when it was issued it was probably a close-run situation as to where the PPN would stall.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

5 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

We’re stuck indoors until it stops. 2 of my kids have autism with sensory issues and can’t bear snow falling on their faces etc. 

Steve the dog is loving it though

My daughter has ASD so I understand where you're coming from. Still, she enjoys looking at it and finds the shape of the snowflakes fascinating!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I have to question this guys knowledge.  Doesn't the MJO only go up to phase 8?

He trades in wind (don't even ask how that works!) so he has a vested interest.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

 

The jury remains out. Systems ejecting from the PV over Canada are running into "treacle" (borrowed the similie from Tamara!), so recently when models have shown low pressure systems barreling across the Atlantic putting us in a milder flow they get stuck and disrupt due to lack of eastward momentum.

Looks like we may see a genuine warm up this week courtesy of the ultra-cold air that spilled through North America, but what next? Until we see the PV checking out of Hotel Canada I suspect the best we can manage is more of the same as we've had recently.

Models will continue to show flirtations with Scandi highs, but they are a threading the needle type set up and require @nick sussex to analyse the shortwaves to death in order to land.

More chance as PV weakens naturally through February, but until we see that PV verifiably shift to a better position we are in stalemate.

 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

I disagree. I just did a little experiment by tracking the eastern edge with my cursor and my conclusion is that whilst the boundaries are not 100% static, generally it's not budging. Eastern edge is pretty well Oxford, as it was some hours ago. It seems to be merging with the precipitation further east, though, which is moving NW.

Yes, I tend to agree now. It did look like some movement earlier, but I think we're just getting caught by occasional pulses. Must be getting a hammering to the north of Reading up in the hills right now. Anyone up Nettlebed or Watlington direction?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Team Squirrel said:

Snow day for us, went sledging for the first time since I was a kid, it was far too much fun!! 

Excellent! Perfect for building a snowman too; very clingy, wet snow.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

*Prays to the weather gods again*

Looking at the radar I can see where they are coming from; just north and west of here is getting a dumping right now but I'm restricted to intermittent light snow at the moment.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Front is definitely edging slowly back ESE to SE. All frozen PPN here in RG7 so maybe a slim chance for those further south and east?

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Trying to come down more heavily here now.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think I now know how you felt Paul in Feb 09. Granted that was an even bigger screw job but us in the southern part of this region really did snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so far!

Yep. Unbelievably unlucky last night it has to be said. Mess this morning is more remimiscent of 80s winters. Definitely a lesser occurrence over the past thirty years.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Shame the temperature is a couple of degrees above freezing and much of the snow has turned to slush or melted. Vile

Have to take what we can get here! Definitely looks like frozen PPN backbuilding a

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Snowing near Heathrow 

Yes. Showing some tiny red echoes on the radar just to out east. Usually means PPN is developing. Light snow setting in here again now.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

PPN definitely back building near Reading and linking the batch coming west out of London with the main front. Looks like we're on the northern edge of the system so should stay just the right side of marginal. Could be a bonus top up!

RG7

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

PPN over London is edging west and looks to keep Reading just on right side of marginal. Could top up lying snow, but wouldn't expect fresh settling where snow has been cleared as temp is 1.1. Temperature is steady, so no rise as it has moved in and dewpoint is steady around 0

.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, kold weather said:

I suspect any precipitation talking to the east of that front is going to be sleety stuff at best. Once the front does move east, providing there is something left, will probably go back to snow.

I'm doubtful however it settles, I think we have lost the surface cold required for it now. Could still cause a few rush hour issues though.

Don't think it will settle. We're under an intermittent light band and it's not settling where I've cleared snow from the car.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

11 minutes ago, rubble79 said:

Reminds me very much of the 90’s (after 91’s great spell) where there was always so much promise but constantly failed to really deliver in my area. Just having the media and TV forecasts to rely on made it so much more frustrating - I used to sit on teletext waiting for the pixilated weather map to update

As others have said, we should probably change our thoughts of March as it has proven that in the right set up, it can deliver decent cold and snow. I also think that at some point the models will flip to our favour and surprise us by showing milder to sudden cold. One day

Am I the only one who never looks at the radar during snow? It’s like looking at spoilers, I’m much happier to look out the window and see what turns up than get frustrated seeing heavy snow missing me 

(rain again here)

Reminds me a lot of 1993/4. We had quite a few snow events here in Reading but very little settled. Better luck this time though!

The narrow band near Reading is graupel/light snow. Now 1.1 dp 0 occasional light frozen PPN

Picture of the dog saying hello to the snowman just before he took his nose!

Measured about 8cm in part of the garden that is less sheltered. Definitely some compaction going on due to slight thaw so reckon we may have had about 19cm all told.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Snow grains here in RG7. Freaky snowman on the car!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, Isle of Harry said:

January 2019 has been the driest since January 2006 in Thanet. 

Been a very dry spell here too since autumn. Unfortunately, my rain gauge was not working due to cobwebs for a while, but I haven't seen an awful lot!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think we have just climbed over 1cm, weve got some melting so it maybe a close run thing. Probably was over 1cm at the end of that weaker band at 3am! 

Definitely better than feared, that moderate back end finally moistened up the atmosphere, upto that point everything died around this area. Just a shame that first front set up just to the north and I was in a major subsidence zone.

The. The 2nd bad luck was a little secondary low spun off into Hampshire which forced the front yo Arch taking us out of the zone. Luckily it died quickly and the back edge refilled again as a new low took over in the channel.

Who's going to be filming you then?

Light snow here again. Looks like a little back building going on. Temp is 0.9  now with dewpoint of 0 so I don't think there will be any more accumulation, especially as lying snow is already fairly wet and slowly thawing.

Three Mile Cross RG7

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Can these regional threads not attach a warning sign to ignore weather apps as they’re garbage .

Yes, they should come with a health warning! MO app was rarely accurate for here last night. They got it right in the end showing heavy snow between 1 and 6am, but I could have found that out from the radar.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

Although its been a disappointing week for many (probably because my expectations were too high). If you'd told me a few weeks ago I'd have 4 days of snow cover in a row I'd have taken that. Granted its snow cover of an inch or less but better than all winter (I'm trying to be positive lol)

 

Ha ha! Rates in top ten snowfalls over past twenty years here! May not have had extreme cold for days on end, but in terms of snow cover today is only behind Feb/Mar 2018, Dec 2010 and Dec/Jan 09/10 this century.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

A few pics from the walk with the dog. Rush hour is ghostly on the main road!