WhiteFox
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Posts posted by WhiteFox
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17 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I'm not convinced, again its very close on Monday to the flow that we had in 2019 (it does warm up beyond that point during the overnight Monday) yet the ground temps are WAY higher than what was produced during the 2019 heatwave. Plus the air is MUCH drier than any other model which is also hugely suspect IMO.
I can believe Tuesday a little more given how extreme the flow is.
Have trouble remembering last week at times, but how dry was 2019 in the lead up to the heatwave? Ground is very parched and very little moisture could be allowing temps to rise more quickly than in 2019.
Just a theory.
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Could be that one ensemble has loads of rain and the rest have none resulting in small amounts on average so, yeah, it’s meaningless without further info.
Quite possible. If the mean is around 0.1-0.5, then only a couple of members will be showing PPN.
On the other hand, it could be showing that quite a few runs have cloud, but only a few produce very light and patchy rain. 2m temps don't seem to back up the second scenario though. Mean 2m temperature for 18th is just below 30, which doesn't suggest many cloudy runs.
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52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
FWIW there is a precip signal in the GEFS for Sunday
I wouldn't rule out a muggy, hot and unbearable day.
That's the mean though. All it tells us is that some runs have some PPN. Looking at the ensembles for PPN, very few have anything for that time in the south.
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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:If he is bigging up cold, then something is brewing lol.
I find him a mild troll on twitter always posting about how mild weather is coming, going to win out, cold won't last etc
He isn't a mild "troll". He's actually a very nice guy who will answer any metrological questions you may have if you ask him nicely and often shares charts which most of us are unable to see.
He's one of the few I regularly follow because he isn't looking for a particular type of weather, rather he gives analysis of what the models are saying.
From what I can pick up from him for this Tuesday storm, there is a huge amount of uncertainty as to what will happen. Each model run seems to be increasing the probability of OA notable winter storm hitting a large part of the UK on a par with Storm Arwen. Certainly worth following closely.
One thing Marco does agree with is that the midweek storm is currently a forecasting nightmare. We shall have to wait and see what the models bring.
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Definitely more snow than the February spell here! Heavy wet snow for quite a while this morning has given a decent covering.
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40.2 mm. Looking at the lastest radar, may get up to 45mm before midnight, after which it looks like fizzling out here. Very impressive event nonetheless, and that represents almost 25% of my rainfall for the year to date!
Flood alerts now issued for the entire length of the Loddon as expected.
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2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Classic , when looking at your post and the above post .
Yes; should have known he'd be out chasing! Never one to miss an exciting weather event!
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Flood warning out for Emm Brook in Wokingham; property flooding is expected. Not surprised really as 25mm is generally enough to cause it to flood ( although not property), and there must have been more than double that there today, falling on some very dry ground. Would also expect the River Loddon to flood over the next day or so as well.
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Just now, kold weather said:
Its a pretty impressive summer rainfall event, especially for the SE and I'd be interested to see the return rate for this much rainfall in the SE section, especially for a summer month. From a brief scout its rare to go above 25mm for a daily average, but I'd guess we have a fair shot at going above that, especially as we still have a good 90 minutes left of the day.
I'm thinking that possibly July 2007 would be the closest?
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Where's @Steve Murr? Guessing he's having an outside shower at the moment as he's under that really heavy band!
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Crikey for some of north Kent some very heavy rates chucked in there, moving at a snail pace and backbuilding severe flooding potential high.
Yes. Quite a serious convergence line seems to be occurring over Kent between Rochester and Maidstone heading West. Showing rates of 75mm or so per hour. That's pretty serious!
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Some places already above 50mm according to NetWeather radar accumulation:
The total for where I live corresponds pretty closely with what I've measured, so no reason to suspect they're overdone. NW Kent in the lead, S. London, Guildford and Wokingham area also well up on totals.
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Up to 34.8mm now. Rainfall rate was up to 8.4mm per hour for a while, now back down to 6. Seems to be a bit of a shift in direction: most of the day it's been ESE, now seems more ENE. Lotsore rain to come I suspect; easily over 40mm total here, possibly 45, maybe pushing 50mm.
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31.4 mm now, but rainfall rate down to 5.4mm per hour....
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No hint of any thunder or lightning here. Just steady heavy rain!
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27mm of rain so far today here in Reading. Just short of my all time record for 24 hours, but I've only had the station since last July!
Rates have been steady between 6 and 7mm per hour for past couple of hours.
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Pleasant end to the day. Scattered cumulus and alto cumulus with a slight breeze from WNW Temperature 5.7, dp 3. Pressure 1000.8 rising slowly.
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Glorious sunshine at last with a much fresher feel. Lots of cumulus clouds scudding by on the breeze.
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Clouds slowly lifting in Reading. Still total coverage but losing the dull-grey nimbostratus feel and becoming a bit lighter as cumulus clouds cross. I hope....
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Current temperature 4.4 and dewpoint of 2. Very quick change of airmass following the squall. Still dull and drizzly here at the moment and fairly calm. Awaiting the stronger winds later...
Rainfall 8.2mm so far today, wet and miserable.
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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Well it was 8c exactly at 1:50 - I wonder what it will be @3pm !
Recorded a 3o drop in temp and DP in ten minutes here in Reading.
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38 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:
No amber warning
trains are running so it would seem nothing too untoward for our region ..!?
I suspect not. The squall just passed here. Rainfall rate up to 40mm per hour briefly, but strongest gust was only 30mph. It actually looks to have died down again.
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The squall line seems to be intensifying on the southern flank over the past fifteen minutes or so. Could be very nasty as it passes over.
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2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:
Wind is already strengthening here, not sure how far it will go.
Strong gusts averaging at around 50 mph now, actual squall bound to have some stronger gusts within it, unless it doesn't squall that is.
Can't see it not squalling now! Just about to hit here in Reading, so watching with interest.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by WhiteFox
Heathrow recorded 31.3 on Tuesday despite a lot of high cloud. Here I'm Wokingham I recorded 29.3, and it was cloudy for most of the afternoon, probably 7 octaves of high cloud and 3 of mid level cloud. Only brief bursts of sunshine.