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Everything posted by WhiteFox

  1. Definitely more snow than the February spell here! Heavy wet snow for quite a while this morning has given a decent covering.
  2. 40.2 mm. Looking at the lastest radar, may get up to 45mm before midnight, after which it looks like fizzling out here. Very impressive event nonetheless, and that represents almost 25% of my rainfall for the year to date! Flood alerts now issued for the entire length of the Loddon as expected.
  3. Yes; should have known he'd be out chasing! Never one to miss an exciting weather event!
  4. Flood warning out for Emm Brook in Wokingham; property flooding is expected. Not surprised really as 25mm is generally enough to cause it to flood ( although not property), and there must have been more than double that there today, falling on some very dry ground. Would also expect the River Loddon to flood over the next day or so as well.
  5. I'm thinking that possibly July 2007 would be the closest?
  6. Where's @Steve Murr? Guessing he's having an outside shower at the moment as he's under that really heavy band!
  7. Yes. Quite a serious convergence line seems to be occurring over Kent between Rochester and Maidstone heading West. Showing rates of 75mm or so per hour. That's pretty serious!
  8. Some places already above 50mm according to NetWeather radar accumulation: The total for where I live corresponds pretty closely with what I've measured, so no reason to suspect they're overdone. NW Kent in the lead, S. London, Guildford and Wokingham area also well up on totals.
  9. Up to 34.8mm now. Rainfall rate was up to 8.4mm per hour for a while, now back down to 6. Seems to be a bit of a shift in direction: most of the day it's been ESE, now seems more ENE. Lotsore rain to come I suspect; easily over 40mm total here, possibly 45, maybe pushing 50mm.
  10. 31.4 mm now, but rainfall rate down to 5.4mm per hour....
  11. No hint of any thunder or lightning here. Just steady heavy rain!
  12. 27mm of rain so far today here in Reading. Just short of my all time record for 24 hours, but I've only had the station since last July! Rates have been steady between 6 and 7mm per hour for past couple of hours.
  13. Pleasant end to the day. Scattered cumulus and alto cumulus with a slight breeze from WNW Temperature 5.7, dp 3. Pressure 1000.8 rising slowly.
  14. Glorious sunshine at last with a much fresher feel. Lots of cumulus clouds scudding by on the breeze.
  15. Clouds slowly lifting in Reading. Still total coverage but losing the dull-grey nimbostratus feel and becoming a bit lighter as cumulus clouds cross. I hope....
  16. Current temperature 4.4 and dewpoint of 2. Very quick change of airmass following the squall. Still dull and drizzly here at the moment and fairly calm. Awaiting the stronger winds later... Rainfall 8.2mm so far today, wet and miserable.
  17. Recorded a 3o drop in temp and DP in ten minutes here in Reading.
  18. I suspect not. The squall just passed here. Rainfall rate up to 40mm per hour briefly, but strongest gust was only 30mph. It actually looks to have died down again.
  19. The squall line seems to be intensifying on the southern flank over the past fifteen minutes or so. Could be very nasty as it passes over.
  20. Can't see it not squalling now! Just about to hit here in Reading, so watching with interest.
  21. Days like today are what really drives my interest in the weather! Just look at that perfect squall line that has formed ahead of the cold front: Anyway, dull and drizzly here with winds gusting to 25mph from SW. Pressure 998.2 falling. Temperature 9.6, DP 7 Rainfall since midnight 1.4mm.
  22. I disagree! What you need to do is tune out the noise. The longwave pattern is identical in the two charts that @West is Best posted. The surface analysis is different because it always will be at that range; smaller scale features are enormously complex to forecast. As far as forecasting goes, IMHO, you can only reliably predict PPN amounts and temperature within a range that broadens as you move further out in time (yes, there are times when the range narrows or widens, generally when a pattern change is occurring). Beyond that, you are simply looking at likelihoods and probabilities; n
  23. Yes. It's often said, but look at the overall pattern: the 500mb forecast was largely correct, but it's incredibly difficult to forecast exact conditions closer to the surface at a longer range. Given the range involved, it's pretty good. If you'd looked at the 500mb forecasts you'd have said that the likelihood for the weather in ten days time was unsettled with a high probability of rain at times. And so it transpires.
  24. I suspect that the GFSp needs more than a little tweaking. I've been following some of the recent storms in the US and its predictions for snow amounts in the north east have been utterly woeful: consistently far too high. To be honest, I haven't paid it much attention, but from the few charts I've seen in here it has a consistent bias towards producing cold and blocked output for Europe. That could be because people only post it when it shows cold, but I get the feeling it does this far more frequently than the live GFS. I've seen a couple of forecasters in the US say that the whole mode
  25. Some very good points and the one highlighted is the key. Making predictions based on signals is fine, but it's based on what little we know and always has caveats applied to highlight that they are based on probability and are not definite. I fear that sometimes people choose to ignore the probability side and choose instead to make snide remarks, but that should not out anyone off from making a forecast if they base it on sound analysis. We still have a huge amount to learn and have very little data to work with; onwards and upwards! Just to add, it has seemed likely for quite a w
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