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Everything posted by nicknacknoo

  1. Indeed! Well put sir. The problem is everyone has their own weather "god". It could be the PV, northern jet arm, AH, phasing systems, MJO, AO, Teleconnections etc. Either way, as a community, if we were all to work together the discussions and leaning (and probably resultant forecasts) from this site would be much enhanced. The use of provocative language (such as tepid, toothless, blink and you'll miss it etc) is also pretty tiresome as is the relentless imbyism. Are we not, as scientists, supposed to be objective, not subjective? Nick
  2. nicknacknoo

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.
  3. happy new year, and thanks to GP, IF, FROSTY, SM,NS, GTLTW, KNOCKER, KARYO, CATACOL, SS, LEGRITTER, BLIZZARD, FEB, et al and any others I've obviously missed for your continuing input. Cheers
  4. I guess Scandinavian/Russian or Scandinavian/Euro
  5. It's not necessarily a computational problem since modern computers can crunch mind boggling quantities of data. I imagine it's more of a data assimilation problem, It's just not possible to record every possible variable in the system.
  6. nicknacknoo

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    Just like teaching maths. It's quite possible to achieve the correct result through the wrong reasoning. I still wouldn't give my students (or the GFS) any credit.
  7. Thunder in Havant but no visible lightning.
  8. Perhaps someone could explain how a warm blob gives rise to hp....... I would have thought the reverse to be true, with the air being heated more than normal and rising?
  9. Hi John, not aimed at you by any means as you are one of the more seasoned posters and I enjoy your year round input. However, for us 'newbies' it can be a little daunting when I do see good posters who have a sound take on the models being shot down on occasions. Anyway, I admire the bravery and the willingness to stake reputations on longer term model forecasting. Keep up the good work.
  10. That, and the fact that an incorrect analysis or prediction and you're going to get 'flamed'
  11. Not quite true. A good thundery outbreak will bring out the crowd from its summer slumbers.
  12. nicknacknoo

    Acronyms and Abbreviations

    SACRA ?
  13. nicknacknoo

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    Merry xmas to all. I think with the amount of sprouts about to be eaten, there is also a decent chance of some renewed WAA heading up from southern England.
  14. mmmmmm...... that's a paradox. How do I now like your post??
  15. nicknacknoo

    New member here <<

    Welcome to the forum Flealess. I take it that you've done well in the last couple of days
  16. Excellent... what lapse interval did you use?
  17. Is that a 1020 I see. What software do you use for time lapse? And to stay on topic... clearing up now... seems to have fizzled out right over me.
  18. Just had that in Havant just North of you
  19. More lightning in the last hour then in total for the last 3 weeks
  20. nicknacknoo

    The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards

    Very disappointing in all..... nearly as bad as the Great 'puff of wind' on St Judes last year. Moderate rain and 1 distant CC lightning flash.
  21. It requires a long period groundswell. 13th Feb 1979 was an extreme example..... particularly as there was no wind at all (you're too young for that one!). The length of time between successive swells was 18 seconds + and with the amount of water being moved with each 'long period' wave it completely dismantled Chesil beach.
  22. Really depends on what weather station you have. Most of the range have an option for changing between metric and imperial measurements, (pressure readings, rainfall, wind speed/force etc). This can often be done on the 'base' station or via software installed on your computer. What model have you got?
  23. Divide by 8 multiply by 5 so 106 kmh = 66.25 mph
  24. Undoubtedly, what you lose in the winter.... you gain in the summer!