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nicknacknoo

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Everything posted by nicknacknoo

  1. I just don't believe this to be true. Here on the south coast I would say our winter is Jan, Feb, March. The sea is far too warm in December for us so we do well out of continental easterlies (if they appear). The holy Grail for us has always been a Scandinavian high and channel runners and these tend to be more prevalent in the latter winter months. The sun doesn't make that much difference when reflecting off dry powder snow
  2. Mostly high level stuff currently over Drayton. Pretty constant though.
  3. Absolutely nothing here in Drayton since last Autumn. On the south coast September and October tend to be better for imports though...... So here's hoping!!
  4. You're doing better than Drayton nr Portsmouth then!!
  5. Disappointing though this chase has been, I think it was Mr. Murr who said that for proper Greenie highs you need to see those red heights in that region. We've never had that modelled so no surprise t hat it appears to have been easily eroded on nwp output.
  6. Meanwhile, how long before those of us along the south coasts of Dorset and Hampshire are struck from the forum for having nothing to contribute. Now the TOD and COS have fallen, what about us as the new reigning champions of storm nothingness, perhaps the Coastal Region of Absolute Patheticness?
  7. Meanwhile, in a spectacular development in Portsmouth...... The sun's gone in
  8. Indeed! Well put sir. The problem is everyone has their own weather "god". It could be the PV, northern jet arm, AH, phasing systems, MJO, AO, Teleconnections etc. Either way, as a community, if we were all to work together the discussions and leaning (and probably resultant forecasts) from this site would be much enhanced. The use of provocative language (such as tepid, toothless, blink and you'll miss it etc) is also pretty tiresome as is the relentless imbyism. Are we not, as scientists, supposed to be objective, not subjective? Nick
  9. fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.
  10. happy new year, and thanks to GP, IF, FROSTY, SM,NS, GTLTW, KNOCKER, KARYO, CATACOL, SS, LEGRITTER, BLIZZARD, FEB, et al and any others I've obviously missed for your continuing input. Cheers
  11. It's not necessarily a computational problem since modern computers can crunch mind boggling quantities of data. I imagine it's more of a data assimilation problem, It's just not possible to record every possible variable in the system.
  12. Just like teaching maths. It's quite possible to achieve the correct result through the wrong reasoning. I still wouldn't give my students (or the GFS) any credit.
  13. Perhaps someone could explain how a warm blob gives rise to hp....... I would have thought the reverse to be true, with the air being heated more than normal and rising?
  14. Hi John, not aimed at you by any means as you are one of the more seasoned posters and I enjoy your year round input. However, for us 'newbies' it can be a little daunting when I do see good posters who have a sound take on the models being shot down on occasions. Anyway, I admire the bravery and the willingness to stake reputations on longer term model forecasting. Keep up the good work.
  15. That, and the fact that an incorrect analysis or prediction and you're going to get 'flamed'
  16. Not quite true. A good thundery outbreak will bring out the crowd from its summer slumbers.
  17. Merry xmas to all. I think with the amount of sprouts about to be eaten, there is also a decent chance of some renewed WAA heading up from southern England.
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